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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.
CT/BM snowcast for the next 24 hours lowered to 1000M for flurries.
It feels wintry atm
No snow in the CTs / BMs that I know of. Temp starting to climb this morning..... bugger.
5C and cold rain squalls coming from Oberon at Mt Vic.
Just had a small hailstorm pass over. Some very loud cracks of thunder as well.
There were some interesting cloudscapes about but just a bit of light rain here. There was a thunderstorm over Broken Bay around 3:00 PM. It looked good on the radar but falls in the area see to have been just a few mm at most.
Nice bit of snow in Barrington Top this afternoon, did anyone get to chase?
A NPWS friend reported light snow between Abercrombie River and Oberon this arvo.
Overcast and windy, gusts to 50 kph. Temp has hung around 2C for the past 12 hours.
Wind chill -5C
Sleet on the windscreen going over Mt Lambie.
The forecast now reaches out to the end of the month. It's basically average temps, sunny or partly cloudy with litte or no rain for Sydney.
Including forecast temps, Sydney OH is trending to finish the month with min max averages of 9.9° ti 18.6°, respectively -0.1 to +0.4 with respect to 1991-2019 averages and +0.3 to +0.9 with respect to 1961-1990.
Regarding rainfall, not much is expected to be added to the month to date rain total of 59.8 mm, which means June will finish a dry month with about half the average rainfall (less than half for 1991-2019).
We had some weird Virga roll along the escarpment around 3pm.
Was effing freezing
It was a chilly day all round actually.
Currently 7.8 here, which is pretty good for this time of night. Temp dropped very quickly once the sun went down.
We had a frost here this morning, and I suspect another tomorrow morning, although that cloud pushing up the coast might put a lid on things at some stage.
Mesoscale low/trough kicking off Cape Howe/Eden coast tonight.
40-50km/h (25-30 kts) winds.
Should run up the coast and impact Sydney 1-2pm tomorrow, albeit with a shedding of force.
I assume that's responsible for the showers pushing up through Narooma now.
I also assume that's generally indicated on the synoptics as a trough circulating around the low?
It's formation is basically from an occluded front and humid, warm advection (green arrow).
Low ticking over 30-40 knots at Montague this AM
Three degrees and freezing windy mizzle at rydal NSW this morning. Cold fingers riding the bike.
Snowy looking clouds towards tarana and Oberon.
Summary for May 2020 (late, I know):
NOTE: Anglers Reach PWS is obviously no longer in operation, and had many gaps in the May data anyways (as I started de-stocking towards the end of the month).
Owing to the positive AAO for most of the month (up to +2 on the index), there was only a single proper cold front this May, at the beginning of the month—Hunters Hill had a 0.6° / 3.2° C day with 15.4 mm on the 01, followed by 0.6° / 4.3° C and 37.2 mm on the 02; so one could estimate up to around 20 cm of snowfall for those two days, which is impressive for 981 m.
Mean Maximum = 10.9° C (–1.1° C)
Mean Minimum = 4.5° C (–1.0° C)
Precipitation = 82.0 mm (–17.7 mm)
Here’s the satellite view in visible light just now, showing the small low moving up the coast as an elegant spiral East of Nowra.
It arrived exactly on time and performed as you predicted. Good stuff.
On another note, I've noticed many places in the Riverina have struggled to get above 8 degrees today with humidity at 97-100%. There has been no precipitation recorded. Wagga has been at 100% all day. Would this be an all day fog?
My mum grew up in Bowning, near Yass, and she has told me they used to have all day fogs there.
Yep, Wagga was the coldest one today, maxing at only 8.5° C (now 7.6° C and still 100% RH). For comparison, Hunters managed 10.9° C and Cabra 5.9° C, so defo a Riverina-exclusive fog.
Been mostly cloudy here, with lots of sunny breaks.
Another cloudy day across Inland NSW absolutely relentless. Pesky high will ensure we're going to see more of this into July.
The opposite to the pesky marine layer the coast has to suffer in the warmer months. Feels good to be on the sunny side.
IMO, it's much better to have the gloom in winter than in summer (like you coasties have it). Cloud goes nicely with cooler weather to give off that wintry feel…whereas cloud in summer ruins any warmth.
Frequent cloud, high winds, low diurnal range, green landscape—that's my ideal winter.
Agree. We have to put up with marine layer low cloud in Summer on many days when the wind comes in from the SE quarter, often after a Southerly change. It normally brings little or no rain. The cool dank air can’t rise to form thunderstorms or rain (trapped under drier warmer air) and it can’t get over the mountains, so it just hangs overhead like a pall. Much more persistent than California’s May Grey and June Gloom, that normally burns off by the early afternoon: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Gloom.
Heavy, slow-moving cells moving up the coast this morning.
Just received 10-15mm in about as many minutes with another cell inbound behind it.
How odd. Barely a cloud here
Here's the latest precip suggestion from CFSV2 for the Week 2 to 4 period from now for Sydney (unfortunately the raw data used for this script is precip rate in mm/sec so I've had to convert it to a mm/day equivalent.... but it's not technically daily rainfall amounts so I wouldn't treat these figures as such).
It uses a lagged ensemble of 16 members (4 members for each of the past 4 runs). The legend in the upper right part of the graph should be self explanatory:
If I might attempt an interpretation of Mr Kato’s graph - roughly by eye it looks like an average of 4 mm per day for 18 days, so about 72 mm, with a couple of wet periods. Say 50-100 mm. That would translate to about average rainfall for Sydney from July 6 - 26 (3 weeks). Average long term at Sydney OH is roughly 25 mm per week, but recent Julys have been drier.
EDIT: after mostly hanging offshore for a couple of days, the showers off Sydney are now crossing the coast. It’s raining outside, about 12-13°.
I actually wouldn't pay much attention at all to the amounts @Steve777 , let alone adding them up to compare them to averages. It's more about any general big trends that may provide info that's more useful e.g. big prolonged increases or decreases.
Same in Wollongong Steve.
The showers look quite chunky crossing the coast but die off pretty quickly crossing the suburbs.
What looked like a pretty decent approaching band of showers ended up being a few drops as it passed here in Castle Hill.
Nice line of convective showers pushing through the Metro coast in the next halfa:
They are looking even chunkier now.
I noticed last night the showers pushed a little further inland overnight. I wonder if they'll do the same tonight?
Currently down to 10.4 deg's here now.
The showers are suburb sized.
It's very much hit or miss
Decent swathe through the Northern Beaches.
Yep, that's what I saw.
Looks like you're about to get hit.
Remains to be seen whether it will make here.
The back up looks ok too if it keeps building approaching the coast.
And yep.....Nope!!!! There one minute, gone half an hour later.
That line of heavy showers died in the arse. All I can see outside is stars.
Heavy cell just moved in on E burbs. 10-15mm our of it, still going.
Smashed BoM’s 0.4mm chance.
25mm here in Bondi since last night.
If it verifys as-per the model looks a coastal hailstone ally possibility.
A Pigeon House Mountain/Robertson special.
Sydney has had a pretty average to slightly warm June for temperatures:
Sydney OH: 9.9-18.6, (-0.1,+0.4) with respect to 1991-2019 average, (+0.1,+0.6) with respect to 1961-2019.
Bankstown : 7.2-18.6, (+0.4,+0.8) with respect to long term average (1968-2019)
It’s been dry, with 69 mm at Sydney OH and 42 mm at Bankstown, both a little over half of their long term means. It seemed wetter because there were more days with measureable raibfall than without.
June had the second least amount of bright sunshine of any month in 2020. The less sunny month was January.
West Channel Beacon, just inside the heads, is the hot spot for the basin at the moment. Not often you see it lead the pack.
Every dog has its day.
There’s a warm air mass coming through tomorrow, with 850 temps over Sydney around 10-11°. There won’t be much cloud around so I wouldn’t be surprised to see 25° in Sydney tomorrow, given that little cloud is expected. The BOM did undershoot today, at least near the City.
Depressing looking at the models for the next 10 days. Very little rain, and only GFS is throwing up a big front for the southeast in 10 days time. AAO is highly negative, with a forecast for the next 10 days to go to neutral, then right back down to negative. Indian may not be as warm as I'd like, but is around average temps, and we have a Pacific that is as good as it's been in years. What gives?!?
My prediction from last night overshot, at least for OH. The BOM was spot-on for OH. Penrith made it to 25° (rounded) after a minimum of 5°.
One thing somewhat noteworthy this morning was the wide range in diurnal minima across Sydney - a range of over 11° from a chilly, possibly frosty 1.7° at Camden to a balmy 13.6° at OH (note that the official mininum of 11.1° occurred at 9:00 yesterday). Sydney Olympic Park, about 12 km West of OH, was nearly 7° cooler. Basically, places not subject to inversion were warm, but in the usual cold hollows it was pretty much like most clear Winter nights. Mt Boyce, which is not subject to inversion, dropped to 7.2°, warmer than Western Sydney and equivalent to about 14° at sea level.
I think after tomorrow's front and the week after that will be our best shot at our elusive below zero minimum (well as of this year). Last year we'd have every 4-5 nights being below zero during winter and the first below zero about May. Some frost does a good job of dealing with the weeds had enough of them this year, getting every type springing up.
Not much showing up on the radar but I just went outside and the sky is heavily clouded over and there's a light shower falling with big drops. That wasn't forecast.
Definitely on radar now. Looks like its developing with a line of showers and storms out to sea.