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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.
Illawarra is 11am to 1pm.
Basin is 12-2pm
CC is 1-3pm
Hunter is sweet spot of 3-5pm.
Stormy showers now quickly approaching from the BMs. Still relatively warm during these hours in many parts around the basin with Bankstown at 25.3c.
Yeah watching a line drop over Camden
Yeah relatively tame storm. Wind came well before the rain did. Could actually see the gust front now on radar moving well ahead of the storm front.
Bucketing down, a roll of thunder as the rain band passes through.
House shaking rumbles here this morning around 1.30am. Very minimal rain but very close strikes. Hoping for something exciting this afternoon. Higher ground seems to be more favourable for better storms, however most models have storms making it to the coast
Yesterday looked ok for Metro West but not for the coast. Didn't see much to write home about though @Jasper Schwarz
Today we see that trough sink it's teeth into the coast, proper.
Blue Mountains showing some TS potential. Should see some cells starting to lift around early arvo, in the Sydney basin.
It's touch and go for anything severe in the Sydney Basin IMO. There's a nice heat cap in there so it'll be mid to high level instab that has to do all the leg work here this arvo.
Below is the problematic heat cap (850mb) that will inhibit low level mechanics, via AXS hi-res.
Need some good sunshine early to break the back of that cap, which is likely but hopefully some movement early arvo.
Really comes down to those cooler 850mb temps moving over the great divide ~ 14:00hrs. These are the green-ish temps to the left of the plot above (West of the Sydney Basin).
Yeah didn’t see anything too exciting. There was some nice lightning as I drove home at about 11 pm but not nothing close to exciting.
Hopefully today gives us something more to be excited about
Some storms falling apart as they enter the Sydney basin, over the GDR, ATM. These are deteriorating to high-based rainfall as a result of that low-level cap knocking the wind out of the sails so to speak.
Might see some rain near the city in the next couple of hours, but I am struggling to see any rumbles for the city until maybe this arvo IMO.
I reckon its done. For Wollongong
Already pushing north..
I think there's a renewed chance for the 'gong, early arvo.
Peak heat. It'll be hit/miss though.
A muggy sweaty night like February. Awoken by rumbles at 3.45 am and 7.1 mm collected at 9 am, 2 more than nearby Peakhurst and second highest in Sydney metro area.
There's some clearing patches to the West of the cloud cover we're seeing in Sydney at the moment.
Below this is indicated by the Blue line (10:30hrs). Once that reaches the basin in the next hour or so, I think we'll start to see some towers forming over higher ground (BM's and CT's).
The colder upper-level air is in the elliptical red area I've highlighted below, that's where we'll see some good growth IMO.
Hopecast - cap and clear air see temps rise, cap goes, then things get interesting with good structure visible?
20/12/19 was an extreme example
Some flangs out Mudgee/Gulgong way at the moment.
Sitting right on the edge of that elliptical area I highlighted above.
Def Sydney bound.
First real cells have just popped up West of Shooters Hill and north. Steamy here now, 22°C and 72% humidity
We missed out on all but a few drops yesterday so i ran the sprinklers this morning. Now very dark outside so we may actually get something soon.
Rumbles overhead at present.
Cotton wool balls inbound.
Really unique sort of lightning activity. Just seems to be rumbling across the sky constantly rather than distinct ground strikes. And down she comes.
Should be the theme of today.
A lot of high-based mechanics today (atleast so for the CT's)
Growth & instab generally above 10,000ft - but will lower East of the GDR.
Some decent hail in that lot. Some 20mm stuff but mostly 10mm and less.
I reckon areas like Blackheath, Lithgow & Katoomba are all in the firing line for big hail this arvo IMO.
Can add Colo Heights and Bilpin to that list too.
Classic covid setup that!
Looks like a strong start for the storm day but going off this we'll be getting something more widespread come mid arvo.
She still treats it as if i'm at the golf course.
Lots of congested cauliflower visible west of Mount Victoria when the gaps open thru the lower level clouds.
Here we go, 14:15hrs bounce down for Syd Western Burbs.
Bathurst Airport 8C temp drop in 15 mins. From 22C to 14C from 13:15 - 13:30hrs.
Only 1.6mm in the tank for the last hour though.
Hope it holds onto it's strength as it reaches the Basin.
Also, I've just found that BOM has a lightning tracker - http://satview.bom.gov.au/
Go to the bottom left and press on 'Layers' for anyone else who doesn't know.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for the Central-East of the State - Bulladelah to Nowra, inland past Dubbo and Parkes: “SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS”.
it’s passed 30° across much of Sydney, including OH. The winds turned NW around lunch time and its been mostly sunny for the last couple of hours.
Incoming for the Hunter!
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 2:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Paxton, Bellbird and Sweetmans Creek (west of Cessnock). These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Belmont, Cessnock, Swansea and Lake Macquarie by 3:15 pm and Charlestown, Cardiff, Boolaroo and Warners Bay by 3:45 pm.
Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.
81km/hr gust observed south of Singleton at 2:23pm..
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 3:45 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Hunter, Metropolitan, Central Tablelands and parts of the Mid North Coast, Illawarra, Southern Tablelands, North West Slopes and Plains, Central West Slopes and Plains and South West Slopes districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Possible left-mover on course for Newy
Just got smashed here in Helensburgh only lasted 5 minutes Hail massive wind gusts and now its calm. Scared the shit out of me as I mop up my flooded kitchen
Not like "liked"
I saw it turn and go up your way.
Moderate storm here.
Showery mess here. No thunder. Disappointing.
So much promise, so little result here in Northern Sydney.
Donzah my house faces west the wind was so strong and with pea sized hail I thought my front windows were going to smash I just yelled to my 12 yr old daughter go into the bathroom.
We had some thundery rain here with a couple of strong wind gusts. Pretty lame really. The small storm we had last night was better.
I'm guessing this is from HQ at Olympic Park
we got a storm like that in Feb 2008.
I was in Japan. My wife was home ...eek
Its like the ocean getting sucked up into those clouds.
Surfed Maroubra got called out of the water as it approached but saw it maxing through Kernell so stayed in.
Nice shelf cloud formation to our South and then it enveloped the coast northwards as it hit the coast, proper.
Great show, but underwhelming as expected.
Bundeena to Stanwell looked a different story.
We had inactivity on a massive scale here. It got very gloomy but there was no lightning, no thunder, not even any rain although the radar showed light rain passing overhead. The storm cells passed to the North and South.
Although it wasn’t quite nothing. A gusty Westerly wind roared through a bit before 4:00 PM. At the Airport, wind gusts over 80 km/h were recorded and the temperature dropped from 29° to 22° between 3:30 and 4:00 PM - must be the remains of the cold front that crossed SA and Vic in the previous couple of days.
So is that it for Sydney? The storms have mostly passed out to sea, although cells are active around Dubbo and the Hunter.
From a mate, taken on the mid north coast. Garden variety shelf cloud of the storm front.
Visual above from highlighted zone below:
Still a bit out West, so may get a light show later tonight.
Band of storms rolling ESE toward Portland, Wolgan V, Lithgow, Marrangaroo within the next hour.
Yep, that storm currently north of Bathurst looks like our last chance today.
It's heading in the right direction, but whether it can hold together all the way to the Basin is another matter.