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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Jul 4, 2019.
FWIW, I don't think it'll make it past Springwood/Bilpin IMO.
I tend to agree.
This afternoon seems to have sucked all the goodness out of the atmosphere.
Decent storm just rolled through Dapto
It’s a superb picture postcard morning. After light Westerlies since dawn, the wind has turned SE but still light at this stage. A few fluffy white clouds have appeared (technical term). It’s about 25° across most of Sydney.
I think that the Badgerys Creek thermometer is playing up. Its showing 29° when other stations in Sydney’s West are showing 24-26°. It’s been doing this for a couple of weeks.
Finally, some actual November-like heat (15° / 28° C on Fri)
It’s now Peak Jacaranda. Here’s a beautiful jacaranda in a quiet Chatswood street against a blue sky on a perfect late Spring day.
The cool, wet pattern has ended for now. We even have two brief bursts of heat in the coming week. Unlike this time last year, fire danger hopefully won’t be a big problem, although it hasn’t gone away.
The models are hinting at a return of cool and wet the week after next.
Interesting night for Bellambi with the wind.
Roughly from 2am to 6am they had an offshore wind which pushed the temp up to near 26.
This could be yesterday's maximum to 9am this morning as the wind has swung back to onshore NE. You don't see that too often.
It does happen occasionally at coastal sites. I can recall a couple of seabreezy days in the last few years where the temperature at Sydney OH hovered in the mid to high 20s all day, with the maximum occurring in a spike into the 30s late in the evening or even after midnight when a NW’er broke through.
It’s now sunny after a fairly cloudy morning and warming up quickly. The NE’er continued on the coast all night and seemed well established earlier but I think N-NW’ers are pushing towards the coast. It’s already 33° at Olympic Park, Bankstown and Penrith.
Sydney's first 40 of the spring goes to Badgery's Creek. It was 40.6C at 1:41pm.
Penrith may go higher this afternoon but for the time being it has only been as high as 39.9C.
The sea breeze is putting up a strong fight on the coast.
Looks like penrith just matched it.
Weird sea breeze at Bellambi.
Meanwhile it's warm and westerly just a km inland.
I have been watching the westerly edging eastwards on the doppler. I didn't really believe it as usually it's the sea breeze winning out as the day goes on. But the Airport has just turned gusty westerly (50km/h) and the temperature has spiked a few degrees to 39.5C. So there's a chance this is replicated at Obs Hill
Obs Hill now +6C in the last 20 mins
Looks like the westerly has won obs hill as well. Was wondering how it would reach the 36C in the city as the sea breeze has been blowing all day.
The flags on the Sydney Harbour Bridge are now showing a stiff NW-er. The temperature at OH just jumped nearly 5° to 35.5°. Sydney Airport has fallen just short of 40°.
We had more days this hot this time last year but there are a few big differences: no smoke, the sky’s the right colour, it’s more humid and there’s no fire ban.
EDIT: pipped by Trail Blazer.
The temp rise at OH is quite odd as on the Obs page, it shows it rising under an E or ENE wind regime.
Must have been brief pushes of the westerly through there.
I think for some time the wind obs have come from a different spot to the temps. I believe the wind is taken from down on the harbour somewhere so these sorts of things aren't unheard of (though it's more common for the sea breeze to look like it has come in but not immediately drop the temp)
Very stubborn sea breeze on the harbour.
The westerly is unable to push it out at sea level. Fort Denison and the harbour bouy near the heads shows this.
If anything, the sea breeze has gained strength as it has regained Obs Hill at 40 odd meters.
The wind observations come from Fort Denison [correction] nearly two kilometers to the East of Observatory Hill.
What is the reasoning behind OH not having a wind reading? Surely the oldest operating site in the country could have wind obs closer than 2km from the site?
I never knew that. That is quite strange that Obs Hill wouldn't have it's own wind obs.
Mind you... Obs hill is in such a wind tunnel area.
Interesting , a weak change evident on the Doppler well ahead of the main Southerly.
The real change passed through Ulladulla at around 6:20 PM, so it’s about 5 hours away. What’s moving through Sydney now is one of those “sneaky Southerlies”, a small low bringing a wind change.
P.S. Storms are moving SE-wards down the Hunter Valley.
EDIT: typo, clarification.
Weather obs should reflect the weather station, not a wind observing station 2 km's away.
I'm actually quite shocked that OH doesn't have wind observing instruments.
Those are heavy duty storms 80dbz.
Yeah. STW issued already with gusts recorded of 80km/hr+ so far.
Those storms up north look pretty decent. What a great way to finish a hot day. Wish something equally as good would come through the basin!
111km/hr gust at Nobby's head.
Phwoar! That's wild!
ACCESS did a good job last night predicting precip over the Hunter in the 5-8pm period. Nailed it. But it usually struggles beyond 3-4 days
Wow just looked at BoM's NSW Observation page. Peak gust was 146km/hr for Nobbys.
Holy shite!! That's impressive!! And dangerous.
I hope all is ok up there.
Ditto on everything being alright there that's ridiculous for this latitude, although the Doppler looks like an absolute madness.
Here’s the storm at 8:00 PM tonight:
My sister in Newcastle reports a wild half-hour storm, lightning strikes, heavy rain, high winds. Power is out, not expected back until 10:30 PM.
It was cloudy until mid morning, cloudy after mid afternoon and sunny in between, allowing OH to spike to 25°, four degrees warmer than forecast. Penrith reached 28°.
We seem to have had a cool change around 3:00 PM. It’s now a chilly 16-17° across Sydney.
La Nina seems to be taking a break. After failing to reach 25° at OH in the first ten days of November, it's reached 25° on each of the seven days since. After 60 mm in the first six days of the month, there's been less than 5 mm in the last ten. There have been hit and miss storms about - the luck of the draw.
The rest of the month is looking warm and not particularly wet.
I left Wollongong to a warm drizzle.
Sweated through neutral bay, leichardt, newtown and paddington.
Driving home met a mizzle of cold air around maddens.
I was just outside after being indoors for a few hours. There’s thick drizzle, everything’s wet but no Sydney site has registered anything. The radar shows a few white patches.
As we dip back into negative SAM territory for the next 7-10 days.
Got a rain shower here in Bondi today, lasted a good 40 mins.
Perhaps under 2mm outta it though.
A vague roll cloud off the Sydney coast this morning, anyone get visual of it too?
Not me. If I had known ....
I see Badgerys Creek thermo is now offline. That's been playing up for weeks. I wonder how long it will be before that is addressed.
Add that to a growing list of AWSs falling by the wayside. A couple of examples come to mind.
Bulman temps in the Northern Territory.
Marble Bar has been completely offline since October.
Best I can do - spotted in a mate’s insta stories. Complete with cliche!
Couldn’t screenshot the panning vid unfortunately
It’s a perfect beach day to day, might be a bit windy. A bit of high cloud has moved in. Temps are up to 25-27° across the metro area. Even OH has reached 26.5°. On days like this with an early sea breeze the new site was often up to 2° warmer than the old one, occasionally more.
NAEFS is showing a distinct warm signal over all of NSW for Nov 26 to Dec 3: https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
La Nina remains on hold but I have a feeling that it will come storming back in the next few weeks.
Don’t want to get all conspiracy theorist here but Marble Bar data at this time of year is likely to indicate a National-aggregate cooler land temp, surely?
That AWS is always a National temp topper...
Maybe slightly, but isn't it a grid-based system with Tom Price and other nearby sites being similar, meaning it won't be noticeably different?
Haven’t looked at the stats but I’d bet Marble Bar beats TP 9 out of 10.
Maybe I should take this to the WA thread to check?
It probably does. But not by much so I doubt the national average is impacted much
Edit: I gather you're talking extremes, not averages. It may mean we miss out on one of those I agree
16° / 30° C tomorrow here. Shows what even a –1 AAO can do…completely override Lack Nina.
Thank fark for that dip.