Storm NSW Thunderstorms Mon-Tues 17-18FEB

Status
Not open for further replies.

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
39,093
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
A trough remains through Central NSW tomorrow (Monday). But Tuesday looks to be the real feature of potentially severe TS activity, with an upper level trough interacting with the NSW-anchored surface trough.

Deep layer shear is present with the movement of the ULL on Tuesday morning, which adds to the instability through Central NSW.

Hi-Res models put the CW Slopes, Central Tablelands & Hunter districts in the higher risk regions. With favourable steering winds we're likely to see cells push through the Sydney basin & Newcastle regions, albeit deteriorating as they come off the GDR.

It also gets interesting with the development of the low through Bass Strait, thanks to this ULL.
How low will she go?

EC 24 hour Rainfall to Tuesday AM:
Screen Shot 2020-02-16 at 7.20.34 pm.png


Dat deep layer shear:
Screen Shot 2020-02-16 at 7.25.25 pm.png
 

DaveM

One of Us
Aug 18, 2000
828
708
263
63
Bathurst NSW
I am tired of having 80 to 90 percent chance of rain day after day after day but getting nothing. The Bathurst bowl has a lot to answer for!!

Hopefully Tuesday will give us something
 

Wavey

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
841
1,658
263
Wollongong, NSW
I don't like our chances of storms very much here. Currently drizzling and has been since about 7pm yesterday. Bellambi picked up a handy 31.4mm since 9am this morning from that heavy drizzle last night. It's hardly registering on radar because it's so low.
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,356
3,984
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
After sunny periods around mid morning, it’s closed right in. The mass of cloud to the North has expanded to cover the Northern part of Sydney but there’s been no rain (yet). The storms and showers to Sydney’s North do seem to be creeping Southwards.The Blue Mountains cells are crossing into the Sydney Basin. Will they reach here? Time will tell.

There have been some good totals in the Hunter, including 15 mm at Cessnock and a number of totals over 25 mm since 9:00.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wavey

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,356
3,984
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
Detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for LARGE HAILSTONES, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

For cells near St Marys and Annangrove.

The General warning has been extended to cover Sydney’s North and West.
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry

Steve777

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,356
3,984
363
Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
The Sydney storms are fizzling out as they near the coast. I wasn’t expecting that as there is no Southerly or sea breeze.

I’ve had some rumbles here but they’ve stopped. The remains of the St Marys cell is about to arrive.

EDIT. And that’s it. Some light rain, possibly not enough to register. The sun and the cicadas are back out. The radar shows the cells rapidly fading.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
39,093
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
The Sydney storms are fizzling out as they near the coast. I wasn’t expecting that as there is no Southerly or sea breeze.

I’ve had some rumbles here but they’ve stopped. The remains of the St Marys cell is about to arrive.

EDIT. And that’s it. Some light rain, possibly not enough to register. The sun and the cicadas are back out. The radar shows the cells rapidly fading.
23°C out Penrith/19°C at Blackheath suggests to me we just don’t have the thermal low level heating, yet.
Perhaps to much over shoot shadowing in the basin. But it’s a relatively cool day for Feb!
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,995
26,458
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Good little slug heading into Burrendong Dam at the Cudgegong Yamble Bridge Gauge. Its not a huge amount but it will be big in terms of securing town supplys for a long while. Will probably double the stored water by this time tomorrow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homer and Kletterer

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
39,093
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
A couple of notable disagreements between models this afternoon, for tomorrow. The coastal component looks to be the biggest factor.
Really would like to see less inshore breeze, as suggested by AXS-C.

If they get going off the Central Tablelands, which they should (on paper) we'll see them hit Sydney IMO.

950mb (~600m) @ 5pm
EC
Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 8.17.16 pm.png

AXS-C: I do particularly like that staunch Northerly low-level wind through the Sydney basin here, Increased DLS and instab.
Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 8.17.35 pm.png

GFS
Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 8.17.52 pm.png
 

DaveM

One of Us
Aug 18, 2000
828
708
263
63
Bathurst NSW
Watching a punchy storm between Boorowa and here. Some red n black in parts of the echo. Will prob fall back as it gets over the Bathurst bowl but hopefully not.
 

DaveM

One of Us
Aug 18, 2000
828
708
263
63
Bathurst NSW
Heading a little West of Bathurst, unfortunately.
That storm last night rapidly fell apart , shame.

Our first seasonal fog this morning, light but all the feel of early Autumn. Here in Bx we should see 30 today but less likely to see that temp again this season, maybe next week but mostly 20’s now.

Hoping for rain today around our catchment.
 
  • Like
Reactions: POW Hungry

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,791
39,093
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
That storm last night rapidly fell apart , shame.

Our first seasonal fog this morning, light but all the feel of early Autumn. Here in Bx we should see 30 today but less likely to see that temp again this season, maybe next week but mostly 20’s now.

Hoping for rain today around our catchment.
Without getting your hopes up AXS-C does prog a nice little line of instability through CT's and Northern Tablelands, late-evening tonight. Keep an eye on it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DaveM
Status
Not open for further replies.
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass