Storm NSW Thunderstorms Mon-Tues 17-18FEB

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Feb 16, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A trough remains through Central NSW tomorrow (Monday). But Tuesday looks to be the real feature of potentially severe TS activity, with an upper level trough interacting with the NSW-anchored surface trough.

    Deep layer shear is present with the movement of the ULL on Tuesday morning, which adds to the instability through Central NSW.

    Hi-Res models put the CW Slopes, Central Tablelands & Hunter districts in the higher risk regions. With favourable steering winds we're likely to see cells push through the Sydney basin & Newcastle regions, albeit deteriorating as they come off the GDR.

    It also gets interesting with the development of the low through Bass Strait, thanks to this ULL.
    How low will she go?

    EC 24 hour Rainfall to Tuesday AM:


    Dat deep layer shear:
     
  2. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Maybe a silly question but how likely are these storms to spark a fire even with the recent rainfall?
     
  3. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    I am tired of having 80 to 90 percent chance of rain day after day after day but getting nothing. The Bathurst bowl has a lot to answer for!!

    Hopefully Tuesday will give us something
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unlike the dry storms of Nov, Dec & Jan we're starting to see more moisture in the atmosphere meaning any TS activity is likely to be accompanied by rainfall.
     
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  5. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Great news.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC progging a nice couple of cells on the BM's by 5/6pm this evening.

    If that onshore component can be held at bay, we're on.
    BMs Sounding this arvo:
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Radar filling in nicely over the BMs atm.
     
  8. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Dodging Bathurst again, so close but missing. One of these days I will get more :)
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    I don't like our chances of storms very much here. Currently drizzling and has been since about 7pm yesterday. Bellambi picked up a handy 31.4mm since 9am this morning from that heavy drizzle last night. It's hardly registering on radar because it's so low.
     
  11. connells

    connells Addicted

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    Similar in the basin now. Same miserable gloom and drizzle just spreading like a cancer.
     
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  12. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    After sunny periods around mid morning, it’s closed right in. The mass of cloud to the North has expanded to cover the Northern part of Sydney but there’s been no rain (yet). The storms and showers to Sydney’s North do seem to be creeping Southwards.The Blue Mountains cells are crossing into the Sydney Basin. Will they reach here? Time will tell.

    There have been some good totals in the Hunter, including 15 mm at Cessnock and a number of totals over 25 mm since 9:00.
     
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  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong onshore drizzle....
     
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    But at least you've got some fish n chips.
     
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  16. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cracking looking feed. Do want.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just the weather for it.. was good
     
  18. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning
    for LARGE HAILSTONES, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

    For cells near St Marys and Annangrove.

    The General warning has been extended to cover Sydney’s North and West.
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wenty looks like it will cop a direct hit.
     
  20. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Just had a very heavy 10 minute storm here. Not much lightning, just heavy rain.
     
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  21. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The Sydney storms are fizzling out as they near the coast. I wasn’t expecting that as there is no Southerly or sea breeze.

    I’ve had some rumbles here but they’ve stopped. The remains of the St Marys cell is about to arrive.

    EDIT. And that’s it. Some light rain, possibly not enough to register. The sun and the cicadas are back out. The radar shows the cells rapidly fading.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    23°C out Penrith/19°C at Blackheath suggests to me we just don’t have the thermal low level heating, yet.
    Perhaps to much over shoot shadowing in the basin. But it’s a relatively cool day for Feb!
     
  23. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    Over 40mm in Bellingen in the last 30 minutes - everything awash after recent floods. Reports say much higher totals in the headwaters so could see a fresh flow down the rivers. Floodcam here if you want to watch the downpour: https://www.kombuwholefoods.com.au/floodcam/
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Looks like Coonabarabran has been copping it. Would be a great view from the Warrumbungles.
     
  25. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    They must be getting close to a record number of rain days for the month (any month?).
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to look like the real McCoy for the Sydney Basin tomorrow (4)PM, via GFS.
    [​IMG]
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney, via BoM:
    Tuesday 18 February
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 21
    Max 30
    Afternoon shower. Possible severe storms.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Looks like some heavy rain has just passed to the North of Dubbo.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh yeah, that crawler looks very isolated but intense.
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    65 mm and some wild gusts at Coonamble.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got slogged too.
    35.1ºC @ 2pm, knocked to 19ºC by 3:51pm
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    122 km Gusts.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C by tomorrow PM.
    Looking very isolated and indiscriminate.
     
  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good little slug heading into Burrendong Dam at the Cudgegong Yamble Bridge Gauge. Its not a huge amount but it will be big in terms of securing town supplys for a long while. Will probably double the stored water by this time tomorrow.
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Some Hector the Convector type action would be good.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A couple of notable disagreements between models this afternoon, for tomorrow. The coastal component looks to be the biggest factor.
    Really would like to see less inshore breeze, as suggested by AXS-C.

    If they get going off the Central Tablelands, which they should (on paper) we'll see them hit Sydney IMO.

    950mb (~600m) @ 5pm
    EC

    AXS-C: I do particularly like that staunch Northerly low-level wind through the Sydney basin here, Increased DLS and instab.

    GFS
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC hinting at things to continue late tomorow/ early Wed , with the Hunter Valley possibly getting some love.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upper Hunter is good to go tomorrow IMO.
    A Maitland Matinée, if you will.
     
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  39. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    Watching a punchy storm between Boorowa and here. Some red n black in parts of the echo. Will prob fall back as it gets over the Bathurst bowl but hopefully not.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heading a little West of Bathurst, unfortunately.
     
  41. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney?

    Ie. Am I getting wet tomorrow evening on my way to Wiseman's ferry?
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite possible you'll encounter rain tomorrow arvo and into the evening IMO.
     
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  43. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Few things lining up...


     
  44. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

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    That storm last night rapidly fell apart , shame.

    Our first seasonal fog this morning, light but all the feel of early Autumn. Here in Bx we should see 30 today but less likely to see that temp again this season, maybe next week but mostly 20’s now.

    Hoping for rain today around our catchment.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Without getting your hopes up AXS-C does prog a nice little line of instability through CT's and Northern Tablelands, late-evening tonight. Keep an eye on it.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    21ºC (19ºC DP) in Sydney at 7:30pm.
    Once this low-level cloud burns off we should see some instab. Already a clearing trend in Eastern Subs.
     
  47. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    The sea breeze is firmly established in Eastern Sydney.

    It's clear and sunny after early low cloud burnt off. No sign of any development at this stage.
     
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  48. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was a steamy morning
     
  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lucky you!
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going off The Gong’s Radar a very quick cell just fired over the GDR, West of Ulladulla. Sheared to oblivion and travelling at ludicrous speed but wow it jumped.
     
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