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Observations NSW Widespread snow event- 8th to 11th August 2019

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by Wavey, Aug 6, 2019.

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  1. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Every time I have been looking at the models, I look in complete disbelief at what the models are suggesting. At this stage, it is an incredibly complex event which comes in a few stages as bursts of very cold air fling up to hit the CT's and NT's. The 00z run of GFS is complete insanity, with forecasted 850mb temps of -6 at 10am right over the CT's.



    The duration of the event looks to be from as early as Thursday night with temps marginal enough for a little bit of snow on the higher parts. But the weekend will be most significant with very heavy precip forecasted on the Sunday in particular. I expect a downgrade because right now this is looking like 20cm of snow around Porters Retreat with settling as low as 600m, and I'm being very conservative here.

    Keen to see what 06z GFS has to say (should update very soon) and I'll suss out EC and see what that says. Just wanted to quickly get this thread up and running so I'll add to this a little later.
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    06zulu looks even stronger IMO
     
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  3. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    No way, I'm itching to see it now.
    Where are you seeing that? Stormcast still on 00z
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually I lie.
    It's pushed away from Sunday.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stronger at the start
     
  7. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Sunday looked a little too good to be true anyway so I'm not surprised about that downgrade.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temps are still extraordinary for NSW throughout Saturday , via GFS 06z.
    Can't see there being much moisture over the CTs by then though.
     
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  9. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Yep, I see what you mean. That 500mb cold pool has completely vanished.
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It can come back.
    06z is the random run IMO
     
  11. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Still enough for more than 5cm to be squeezed out IMO. Even Saturday is still pretty good modelled precip compared to most fronts that have hit the CT's in the last 2-3 years. I've also seen 2-3cm falls up there with next to no modelled precip.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eg. EC high res.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I mentioned over the w/e (when talks of a foot of fresh snowfall were thrown around), ground temps vary a lot on the CTs in these types of events, most of which are marginal for accumulation.

    The SW'ly flow on Saturday is great for the CTs but the inbound atmosphere is drying out, meaning it lacks consistently heavy falls.
    Dusting at best for places like Oberon etc. IMO.
    CTs do best out of those rogue cut-off low scenarios, on the back end with that SW'ly flow.
     
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  14. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Early Days

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    Great to see this thread to record for posterity a potentially most notable event more for where snow might fall than the amount.
    I think the Southern Highlands will get little more than an errant few flakes, but one can dream.
     
  15. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    EC is still hanging around that 10-13cm mark from this morning for the CT's, while the NT's has almost 20cm accumulated snow forecasted.



    GFS still very bullish at >30cm snow accumulation.
     
  16. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    While 06z GFS was pretty weak in comparison to earlier models, the subsequent 12z and 18z runs have steadily increased precip on Sunday with that 500mb cold pool sitting right on top of the CT's. Friday and Saturday precip still quite good as well.

    EC and GFS now falling closer into line with one another. EC suggesting about 15-17cm of snow while GFS suggests ~25cm across the plateau. We're getting very close to within 3 days now so this should be fairly close to the actual outcome I would suggest.

    I think EC will be closer though, since GFS is still too bullish IMO.
     
  17. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Just need this cold pool to stay roughly where it is and this will be a spectacular event. This is Sunday 4pm for EC, and GFS has roughly the same temps at 500mb. Isotherms represent temp.

     
  18. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Surprised that there's such a lack of talk given this is a snow forum. Ironic given that the other forums I'm on have more talk on it.

    I'm seeing settled snow in places like Goulburn on Sunday morning, and dare I say it... perhaps even Canberra.


     
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  19. snowmobile

    snowmobile One of Us

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    The big sponge to the west of Canberra literally sucks :headbang:.
    The first AFL game to be played in the snow, its a possibility Friday night:party:
     
  20. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    Certainly possible but unlikely IMO.
     
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's nearly 950 posts in the main snow thread, so it isn't like we are not talking about it.

    I can also see some snow for Goulburn and Canberra, just a dusting though.
     
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  22. Mogul

    Mogul One of Us

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    Trying to get a leave pass to camp at Shooters Hill Friday night.
     
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  23. DaveM

    DaveM Addicted

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    Going to bugger up my getting firewood at Sunny Corner Saturday :eek:
     
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  24. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    I might take Monday as leave and go skiing.
     
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  25. Steve777

    Steve777 Hard Yards

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    It's going to be cold enough, but there doesn't seem to be much moisture East of the Divide. It might be a bit hit and miss there. West of the Divide looks better.

    Some forecast rainfall totals (mm) predicted by the BOM for August 8-11:

    Katoomba: 0-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1. Lithgow looks a bit better.
    Orange: 2-6, 4-6, 2-6 2-6
    Oberon: 2-3, 3-5, 1-4, 1-5
    Crookwell: 4-8, 6-10, 1-5, 2-6
     
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  26. Homer

    Homer Hard Yards

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    Hey Wavey.

    Don't be disheartened by lack of discussion at this stage. I'm sure things will hot up a bit once the system gets underway.
    I've certainly been checking into this thread regularly, but haven't had much to add due to all the discussion and maps that have been posted.
    Hopefully all our CT's and SH's friends will start posting once this system roars into gear.
    Just as an aside, this site is so much better than WZ for discussion. The maps and models posted here are far more common which gives a way better take on future events.
    Over time, I don't really think any of us will miss WZ, and realize what a dinosaur it had become.
     
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  27. DaveM

    DaveM Addicted

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    It’s going to be interesting to see how it goes this weekend, might try get to Shooters on Saturday
     
  28. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    See ya there
     
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  29. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi @Wavey , we’ve got a condo in Mt Victoria and a rural retreat at Dargan and I work in Lithgow and +1 at Mt Wilson so if there’s any action we’ll certainly report it!
    Hopefully with a ski report too!
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What other forums cover such a 'snow in strange places' event across 5-6 threads?
    What a time to be alive.
    Watch it come to life on the observational stuff... some people haven't seen WX like this in 15 years or so.
     
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  31. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Early Days

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    For us in the Southern Highlands this event is likely to be very ho hum compared to July 2015 when we had 10 to 15cm widespread. I doubt we will see any more than a few flakes (and probably nothing) so certainly not the best winter Wx of the past 15 years here.
    I hold out a faint hope moisture and cold may line up monday, but doubtful.
     
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  32. NewTurns

    NewTurns One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    where in the Southern Highlands?
     
  33. skull

    skull One of Us

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    I just hope I can get up on a lift
     
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  34. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    In that case this is the most intense snow type system I've experienced. I wasn't old enough for a licence in the July 2015 event and in May 2000 was much too young for any recollection.

    PS: If this thread is marked observations, does that mean my forecasts should be going in the current Alpine and Southern thread?
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guess my point is... it hasn’t happened yet.
    Models have, will and can... get it wrong. Particularly with SiSP anoms such as this one.
     
  36. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    What does that term mean?
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in Strange Places
     
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  38. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Early Days

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    New Turns, where the snow fell in 2015 depended on the location of the cold pool. Reports of 20cm in Berrima, 5 to 10 in Bowral and zip in Robertson.
     
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  39. DaveM

    DaveM Addicted

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    I observe that we have less than 1 octar of cloud, merest whiff of breeze and the thought of very different weather quite soon feels strange :eek:

    I am however hopeful albeit dreading the seemingly usual dissipation of conditions at a late stage. It would be nice to see a half decent system come through.

    Perhaps to wreck my chances, I’ve placed a few days of wood under cover. :whistle:
     
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  40. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    This event here is a completely different setup for us here in the Southern Highlands compared to the July 2015 one. This front is far colder and such is that with any westerly component, you can never expect more than the odd passing snow shower. That 2015 even had a consistent onshore easterly flow (from an ECL I think). Haven't had such cold upper temperatures that are progged for here over the weekend in a few years so here's hoping to see some flakes! Have locked in a snow chase to Crookwell early Friday and will post any pics and vids that I get
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I might try make it down to Mount Gibraltar on Fri/Sat morning, if I can manage it.
     
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  42. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    I'm probably heading up on Sunday for the better falls, but the problem might be actually getting there. Should still be a nice snowfall on Friday, keen to see your pics and videos.
     
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  43. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

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    12z GFS has actually raised the precipitation so Saturday has fairly heavy precip now while Sunday still maintains the 500mb cold pool and remains the biggest day of snow. This looks to build cumulatively, with tomorrow having maybe up to 5cm and then the second decent burst of snow will fall on that base around sunrise and continue almost unabated until the even heavier stuff comes. I think 20cm of snow on the southern OP is a pretty reasonable estimate at this stage.

    Still quite a big difference between GFS and EC in terms of snow accumulation on windy, with the former going for an incredible ~40cm, while EC continues unabated at around that 15cm mark.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Time to start using mesoscale HR models as I think this is as good as GFS can do about now.
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wanders off to check AXSR
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR. Looks more like GFS now
     
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  47. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canberra has a very Japan-esque look this morning, in particular from my office block looking east over the Fyshwick flats. It is socked in and the grass (/tussock cough cough) is a very dull light brown from a dry cold winter. Love it.
     
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  48. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    How much are you estimating on your experience/knowledge around the OP mate?
     
  49. DaveM

    DaveM Addicted

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    A nice shower through Bx at moment, sounds good on a corrugated carport roof near my window:)
     
  50. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    8C, breezy and intermittent rain in Lithgow