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Predictions NZ 21-26 May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by ScottGN, May 19, 2014.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    After some very mild weather it looks like the run in to the end of May might see some good potential for snow in the south of NZ. A series of westerly fronts are likely from Wednesday through to Sunday. Wednesday could see snow down to about 900 metres, Friday may see a bit of a warming as a nor-westerly pushes in but by Sunday the snow level may possibly lower to the Lake for Queenstown.
     
  2. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Im getting amped! Looks like it should be a good one. Plenty of cold temps during saturday sunday hope coronet fire up the guns!
     
  3. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Metservice forecasters are now calling snow with light winds for Queenstown on Saturday. I think almost every winter I've lived here it's snowed down to lake level at the end of May. Also yr.no is suggesting almost a metre for Remarkables through to the end of the week.
     
  4. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Longwave is looking better and better for the weekend. GFS +144 is very encouraging. The 540 is up around Cook Strait, the 528 pushes onto the lower South Island and GFS at least shows plenty of moisture.
     
  5. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    AXS-G is now pretty bullish too. IMO snow for Queenstown is now more likely Sunday than Saturday. Generally though models are upgrading this system this morning. Also if AXS-G is right we might need another thread for next week.:)
     
  6. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Oh man this is getting exciting. A bit of heavy NW concrete to coat those tussocks and then some nice stuff on top. Think you might be right on next week too. yr.no are being pretty generous for wednesday next week!

    I love to see the 528 :)
     
  7. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Blimey. Metservice is forecasting a low of -6 for Queenstown on Monday after the main bulk of cold air moves through. That'll be a bit of a shock to the system.
     
  8. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like Coronet had the guns running most of last night, top to bottom too, which is interesting given that the freezing level is forecast to be quite high overnight tonight as a warmer nor-westerly moves in ahead of the cold front expected this weekend.
     
  9. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    They just upped that overnight low to -10.
     
  10. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    They were still running when i looked at the webcam this morning too, I thought it odd as well considering the high freezing level friday before it drops on saturday, it also looks like bulk of the moisture is due on friday too.

    As for the cold temps looks like the freezing level will stay low for a period after the snow. At those sort of temperatures coronet will be able to make a lot of snow as when it hits -6 up there the snowguns go into overtime!
     
  11. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Also with expected rain this weekend and possibly through wed/thur next week we should be above average for rain fall in may!
     
  12. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Snow is on the cards for Invercargill Sunday night.
     
  13. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Golly it's wet!
     
  14. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Metservice has just issued a Special Weather Advisory

    Issued: 10:54am Friday 23 May 2014

    SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHLAND, OTAGO, CANTERBURY, FIORDLAND, WESTLAND,BULLER

    ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 10:54am Friday 23-May-2014

    SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK FOR THE SOUTH ISLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND,ESPECIALLY FOR FIORDLAND, SOUTHLAND AND SOUTH OTAGO AS WELL AS THE ALPINE PASSES. A series of cold fronts are forecast to cross the South Island during the weekend, with the coldest air arriving later on Sunday with snow likely to near sea level in the deep south. Snow will initially affect the higher roads and passes on Saturday, especially the Milford Road, with significant accumulations likely during Sunday, which could cause travel disruptions. The snow levels will lower during Sunday and are expected down to near sea level in the far south by evening. Significant snowfall accumulations are possible on Sunday over higher parts of Fiordland, Southland and South Otago, including the hills of Dunedin and inland Southland, but especially about the Catlins. This outbreak will also be accompanied by strong to gale force south to southwest winds which will add to the bitterly cold temperatures and could lead to blizzard conditions about the hills with localised snow drifts. This is likely to be a significant event for parts of Fiordland, Southland, Otago, the Canterbury High Country, higher parts of Westland and possibly Buller. People in these areas should prepare for winter driving conditions and possible travel distruptions. Farmers may wish to move vulnerable stock to sheltered areas. The next Special Weather Advisory will be issued by 11am Saturday 24-May-2014
     
  15. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    there was a small lake forming in my drive this morning. its all calm and drizzle now but only a few circles of snow left on coronet now!
     
  16. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weatherwatch has some analysis of where they think snow will fall this weekend. Bearing in mind they are an Auckland based crowd (whaddaya they know right?) and forecasting high country snow in NZ is notoriously difficult.

    This weekends snow info for Southland / Otago – what you need to know
    Posted by wwadmin on Fri, 23/05/2014 - 17:59

    There are two bursts of cold air due to arrive over the South Island this weekend, especially the lower South Island. One moves through on Saturday and naturally the second on Sunday, the air on Sunday is particularly cold and could well bring snow to quite low levels.

    A front moving through Southland and Otago on Saturday afternoon brings a period of rain then easing to showers, expect some snow to 400m with a few flurries possibly even reaching 300m by evening. This burst of cold air is fairly short meaning any snow accumulations while still a worry shouldn't be too significant. 3 to 5cm down to 400m with perhaps a 1cm falling slightly lower. 5 to 10cm above 600m.

    On Sunday a more significant period of cold air moves through and it is longer lasting, a southwesterly change moves through in the afternoon once again bringing wintry
    showers of hail and sleet, snow looks like lowering to low levels (200 to 100m)
    in the evening with a chance of sea level flurries even possible. 15 to 20cm
    above 800m, 10 to 15cm down to 400m and up to 10cm down to low levels looks
    possible. In drifts or ranges / hills facing the prevailing wind direction
    amounts could be 5 to 10cm higher then the quoted figures above.

    Coastal Otago north of Dunedin will not feel too much in the way of snow on Saturday as
    moisture levels cut back a bit as the change moves north, still..... 1 to 3cm of
    snow looks possible down to 400m late afternoon / evening for a brief time.
    Later on Sunday and through into Monday morning is where the snow
    potential increases nearer the coast and figures are more in line with
    Southlands and Central Otago as above, 10 to 15cm possible down to 400m during
    this period with 5 to 10cm down to low levels (a risk 5cm may accumulate at sea
    level).

    There is a risk of snow about the ranges north of Otago and on
    Banks Peninsula at higher levels, we’ll cover that in a story later this
    evening.

    This bout of weather clears away midday Monday with
    bitterly cold southwesterlies easing away.

    By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson - WeatherWatch.co.nz
     
  17. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Metservice also put out a Severe Weather Outlook which provides a useful graphic of how they think the weather is going to pan out. Low confidence is a 20% + likelihood, moderate is 40% +, and high is 60% +.
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Centago

    Centago Addicted

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    Bring it on! Nice to see weatherwatch (or their analyst Aaron Wilkinson) putting their neck on the line and predicting snowfall amounts for different locations and elevations (MetService eat your heart out! I suspect the MetService folk will be issuing a heavy snowfall warning or at least a more detailed special wx advisory sometime tomorrow). ScottGN if I recall/stalked correctly you identified potential for this weekend's system sometime last week - nice job! Looking forward to on the ground updates from you guys (ScottGN and Draizuh) this weekend, I'm stuck with following this one from Wellywood.
     
  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cheers Centago. TBH it's been a pretty straight forward system. Good Longwave support from the get-go. And once the models (especially GFS) were in they pretty much stayed constant with none of the usual chopping and changing we get with NZ forecasts. The only slightly surprising thing so far is that I thought we'd more snow out of the front last Wednesday and I assume NZski thought the same as well otherwise why did they get the guns up and running Wednesday night?
     
  20. Centago

    Centago Addicted

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    I was excited but a little baffled that they bothered with the snowguns at CP on Wed night, given the likelihood at that time of heavy rain and warm temps on Friday that indeed eventuated yesterday. Whatever base they had (natural and/or man-made) was gonna get rinsed. Perhaps they were hoping less precip would spill over the main divide but the writing was on the wall IMO. You're right, I'd liken following the forecasts/models for this event like watching the All Blacks, minor fluctuations but generally consistent. Unlike following the forecasts/models for most NZ events which is like watching the Warriors: an emotional roller-coaster!
     
  21. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Looks like its here! Just got in from a ride around the golf course in kelvin heights and the wall of black cloud has just begun to push down the lake, right on time!
     
  22. notty

    notty Addicted

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    I am in Dunedin at the moment, currently extremely windy, mild temperature and the sun is still out
     
  23. notty

    notty Addicted

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    can the see the cold front coming through now, massive cloud bank rolling up from the south
     
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  24. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Queenstown is getting quite heavy sleety showers at the moment with the snow level at about 400/500 metres. The colder air isn't expected until later today which should see snow lowering to sea level across the south. It looks like this system is going to deliver in spades.
     
  25. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Yup. 4.4mm in the last two hours and lower coronet is already looking a little bit alright!
     
  26. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Few people getting in on the action at CP.

    [​IMG]

    I'm assuming the snow guns will be pumping solid for the next few days.
     
  27. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Just saw that Metservice is forecasting a low of -13C in Queenstown tomorrow!
     
  28. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Ill probably be joining them tomorrow and tuesday :)
     
  29. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you back in Arrowtown Tele or still this side of the ditch?
     
  30. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Just had a look, seems like it warmed up there after mid day and they shut off all but the very top guns on the express side. Great temps last night though -6 on the upper third of the mountain, mixed with natural snow will be creating a great base. for once it might be greengates opening day!?!
     
  31. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    *like*
     
  32. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Unfortunately still in Canberra. Spent most of the day in shorts and t-shirt in very unseasonable warm May temps.
     
  33. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]
    Queenstown this morning. Cardrona are reporting 50cms at the bottom of the access road. Staff there couldn't get up the hill.
     
  34. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Remarks also reporting 50cm apparently..


    Last night at 12.30am in queenstown..
     
  35. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Got a snow day from work.:woohoo:
     
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  36. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Queenstown Airport said they had to clear 30cms off the runway this morning.
     
  37. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]
    The deck at TC. They're reporting 25cms in the carpark.
     
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  38. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    We're expecting a report Draizuh.
     
  39. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Just a couple of turns on the lower half of the mountain today. Snowmaking was on the entire day. Plenty of natural snow in drifts and lots of man made on the pistes.
    Will hopefully get up there again tomorrow morning if i can deal with the ice rink roads :)
     
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  40. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Oh so jelly.. ! ^ looks sweet. Wish Oz had conditions like that now. sigh.