NZ 21st - 23rd

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Old Navy, May 12, 2006.

  1. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    The promising system hitting Australia towards the end of next week (19th) looks even more promising for NZ. Quite a bit of moisture is beeing drawn down from the north with what looks like a strong cold front that should catch up. There is then another system following on the heals of that with a nice high positioned off southern WA creating a good southerly fetch. Some other maps do not show this as being quite as good so it will be interesting to see what happens. Hopefully NZ will start seeing the effects on the evening of the 20th. This week looks like the week to burn some skis.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Old Navy, May 12, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. Peaksnik

    Peaksnik First Runs

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    Old Navy I'll be in Arthur's Pass on the 20th and walking in to Barker Hut for a week of pottering on the peaks thereabout. Do you think that the system you refer to is going to dump more than the most recent storm cycle? I'm hoping for some melt-freeze consolidation by the time we are there rather than dodgy loading of slopes. Whatever the weather though it will be just great to be there.
     
  3. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    I think you will be OK. This system seems to have already fizzed :tany: I will still cross everything that I can cross and hope. Below is the map for Saturday looking all good.

    [​IMG]
     
    #3 Old Navy, May 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Latest Metservice forecasts are good for the southern regions.

    WINTRY WEATHER ON THE WAY.

    MetService is forecasting a cold southerly outbreak to sweep over the country
    during Sunday with temperatures plummeting in the South Island.
    Strong, showery southwesterlies are expected to bring snow to low levels in
    Southland and Otago, possibly as low as 300 metres.
    Although snowfall amounts are generally likely to be less than 10cm, there may
    be larger amounts up to 15cm on the hills of western Southland and Otago as far
    north as Queenstown, and about the Catlins.
    In Canterbury, the showers in very cold southwesterlies are likely to be
    confined mostly to Banks Peninsula with a few centimetres of snow down to about
    500 metres.
    MetService advises people in these areas to stay up to date with the latest
    forecasts as snowfalls may be low enough to affect some roads.
     
  5. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Let's hope these predictions come off.

    [​IMG]
     
    #5 Telestrom, May 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet One of Us

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    Metservice has grown more confident for the central north island...


    SNOW WARNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND PLATEAU, OTAGO AND SOUTHLAND
    MetService forecasters are warning of heavy snowfalls on the Desert
    Road from Sunday night through to early Tuesday morning in a cold
    southwesterly airstream.Snow is expected to develop above about 700
    metres on the central plateau overnight Sunday to Monday, affecting
    many roads. By the early hours of Tuesday,up to 15cm could have
    accumulated above 800 metres on the Desert Road.

    In Otago and Southland, between 9pm Sunday and 6am Monday, up to another 5-8cm
    is expected down to about 300 metres about the western hills as far north as
    Queenstown, and about the Catlins.

    MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS FOLLOWS:

    HEAVY SNOW WARNING

    AREA/S AFFECTED: THE DESERT ROAD ALSO SOUTHLAND AND OTAGO
    FORECAST:

    THE DESERT ROAD
    In the 27 hours from midnight Sunday through to 3am Tuesday, up to
    15cm of snow is expected above 800 metres. Heaviest falls are
    expected between 3am and 9am Monday, with up to 10cm falling in this
    period.

    Lighter falls are expected down to about 700 metres.

    THE WESTERN HILLS OF OTAGO AND SOUTHLAND AS FAR NORTH AS QUEENSTOWN,ALSO THE
    CATLINS
    In the 9 hours from 9pm Sunday to 6am Monday, 5-8cm of snow is
    expected down to about 300 metres.
     
  7. James B

    James B One of Us

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    Well, it's 2 degrees and raining/hailing on the roof in Chch right now.
     
  8. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Metservice is even more confident now for North Island.

    Issued by MetService at 11:01am 15-May-2006

    SNOW WARNING FOR DESERT ROAD ALSO HAWKES BAY AND SOUTHERN GISBORNE RANGES
    SEVERE GALES EXPECTED ABOUT EXPOSED EASTERN COASTS OF GISBORNE AND
    HAWKES BAY

    A low is deepening east of the North Island. Forecasters expect further snow
    about the Desert Road, also the ranges of Hawkes Bay and southern Gisborne
    through to about the middle of Tuesday. In most of these areas, another 15 or so
    centimetres is expected to accumulate above 800 metres in this period. However,
    about the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay, snowfall totals could reach 40 to 60
    centimetres. Lighter falls are expected down to 700 metres.

    Also, severe gales are expected to affect exposed coasts at times from Cape
    Palliser to Tolaga Bay between noon Monday and about the middle of Tuesday.

    MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS FOLLOWS:

    HEAVY SNOW WARNING

    AREA/S AFFECTED: THE DESERT ROAD, ALSO THE RANGES OF GISBORNE AND HAWKES BAY
    SOUTH OF GISBORNE CITY
    FORECAST:

    THE DESERT ROAD, THE RANGES OF GISBORNE SOUTH OF GISBORNE CITY, ALSO THE RANGES
    OF HAWKES BAY EXCEPT FOR THOSE NORTH OF WAIROA

    In the 24 hours from noon Monday to noon Tuesday, up to another 15cm is expected
    above 800 metres. Lighter falls down to 700 metres.

    THE RANGES OF HAWKES BAY NORTH OF WAIROA
    In the 24 hours from noon Monday to noon Tuesday, expect 40 to 60cm
    of snow above 800 metres, with lighter falls down to 700 metres.

    STRONG WIND WARNING

    AREA/S AFFECTED: EXPOSED COASTS FROM PALLISER BAY TO TOLAGA BAY
    FORECAST:
    EXPOSED COASTS PALLISER BAY TO CAPE KIDNAPPERS
    Between noon Monday and 9am Tuesday, southwesterlies expected to
    reach 80 km/h at times, with gusts 130 km/h.

    EXPOSED COASTS CAPE KIDNAPPERS TO TOLAGA BAY
    Between noon Monday and 3pm Tuesday, southwesterlies are expected to
    reach 80
    km/h at times, with gusts 130 km/h.
     
  9. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Old Navy.Your call from the 12th is still a goer.
    This makes me think this season may be more "traditional" for NZ..the longer range models even this early in the season seem to be playing out more strongly/consistently than the last couple.
    Looks like a nice pool of cold air is programmed in on the GFS runs in association with an Australian ECL..(NZ WCL :nerd: )
    All coming together @ the 22nd.
    moisture + cold+ Southern Alps = good times!(hopefully)
     
  10. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    starting to see some snow on the late images from Hutt today
     
  11. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    Looks like you guys on the south Island are also in for a right royal downpour later this week as our ECL meanders its way across the Tasman [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #11 BrentC, May 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah...I've been trying to ignore that...could mean the "base" becomes mud...
     
  13. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet One of Us

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    great for the hydro lakes, remember we're as green as, here
     
  14. James B

    James B One of Us

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    OK, nice to see some precipitation.
    But how can it be so damn warm?
    The sun set for the last time in the Antarctic in late March, it has been pitch black since. The sun is in the Northern Hemisphere.
    It's dark when I get up, and dark when I get home from work.
    So could it please get cold? Soon!
     
  15. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    Well some rain and then snow and then rain again yesterday. I have been informed that about 50cm of snow fell yesterday above 1800m (still very high) and then a bit of rain damage and then snow again. I was very surprised driving into Arthur's Pass last night to find it snowing heavily though this turned back to rain pretty quickly.

    I don't want to know about the thing coming around the 26th. I am just hoping that some cold somehow combines with it.

    All the farmers around here are still going on about there being plenty of signs that the season will be a goer. There are heaps of birds that have come down from up high, it's just like 1994 etc. Personally I will wait and see with my fingers crossed. Although I have had some awesome days since moving to NZ, the last 2 seasons have overall been pretty poor. I am hoping that this one will be different...
     
  16. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

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    Looks like we will be in for a bit of a dunking over the weekend as the low moves across and drags a few fronts with it,
    Hopefully as it tracks away to the east it can drag up some cold to help repair any damage [​IMG]

    But I think we're gonna get drowned [​IMG]
     
    #16 madskierNZ, May 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    well there might be some light at the end of the tunnel.
    Like an angel's halo, a pool of cold air has appeared in the Tasman with the 5440 line passing somewhere North of Hutt, the higher resorts may just escape a total hiding..here's hoping!
     
    #17 MisterMxyzptlk, May 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  18. James B

    James B One of Us

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    Mate, you should have come up to Broken River during 2004, we had powder day after powder day, all the way down to the carpark through most of the year, chutes we hadn't skied for a few years, and we were skiing well into late October.
    And I was skiing Temple Basin in November 2004, you live in Arthur's Pass, eh? You should have been up there!
    (2005 was indeed the worst season for over 10 years.)
    2006 has to be better than 2005. Surely somewhere between 04 and 05?
     
    #18 James B, May 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Old Navy

    Old Navy First Runs

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    My apologies James, even last year I had some fantastic days up at Broken River. I was here early in the 2004 season but missed August and the beginning of September so only got a few days late in the season (seeing as BR was open for so long) but missed the big days late August. Still had some good days, but not the ones that I have been hoping for. This year I have a bit of time up my sleve for winter so fingers crossed. May see you on the hill...to a good season for 06