New Zealand NZ Obs/Predictions 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Draizuh, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Current Situation : Shit its warm. Indian summer. A few frosts, not much precip. still hitting 20c in the day time.

    My Current prediction : A Repeat of 2011. Late start for most NZ resorts. Followed by Mega august. And a powder filled spring.
     
  2. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I've been watching Metservice the last few weeks and thought it was looking a bit warm for end of Autumn for Queenstown ;) 18,19 max temps just before winter is about 5-6 higher than normal right? I would have thought 12-15 would be more May temps there? In saying that its 22 here again this week in Canberra so it looks like its warm everywhere.
     
  3. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Long way out but looks like a considerable change after the 9th for you Draizuh.
     
  4. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    14th of April last year about 10km down the road from my place.

    We have had snows, but not much. A very small dusting above 1500m
     
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  5. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Certainly the garden's still chugging away happily. I picked a small handful of cherry tomatoes yesterday. This time last year it was all done and dusted.
     
  6. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Ive still go Jalapenos on deck, about 8 plants, picked, smoked and dried the red ones and they were nice and hot! this time last year the plants were tiny wee dry sticks!
     
  7. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    #7 ScottGN, May 3, 2016
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
  8. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  9. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks pretty good for the Lakes from the middle of next week onwards.
     
  10. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    And if the maps continue to stay true, there's also plenty behind next weeks change.
     
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  11. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Mid week on for the South Island next week is looking better and better.
     
  12. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Yeah i must admit its looking wet. great for the hills and for my water tank!
     
  13. Centago

    Centago Addicted

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    It's nice to finally see an anticipated breakdown of that high pressure system to our northeast, and I've also enjoyed seeing some single digit temperatures around the lower South Island today. Looking like biblical proportions of rainfall for the West Coast in the coming week.
     
  14. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Big wet, then cold air arriving Sunday night / Monday. Looks like freeze levels should get down to 800-1000m. Winter starts from Sunday night!!!!!!!!!
     
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  15. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    What sites do you use for following NZ weather?
     
  16. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    metservice.com I look at. Much better than BOM in Australia. Its actually user friendly and nice to look at at. The webcams all over the country are a nice touch too
     
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  17. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    AXS-G and GFS have diverged for the beginning of next week. AXS-G is currently plotting more of a Tasman Low scenario while GFS is going with the cold sou-westerly outbreak even suggesting the possibility of flurries as low as lake level for Queenstown.
     
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  18. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/
    On the left under "Weather Maps" select "expert charts", then again on left select "Oceania".
    Once your there you can look at various parameters.
     
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  19. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    #19 Untele-whippet, May 10, 2016
    Last edited: May 10, 2016
  20. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    FFS, models being all over the show is no help at all when you are trying to get a winter field campaign underway. Looks like I might have a window to get an AWS installed in the mountains this Sunday, but really need to get a drone flight done pre snow accumulation too... Thursday next week was looking good for that, now it's down the shitter again.
     
  21. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Mountainwatch predicting 25cm at Remarkables for Monday atm. Credible?
     
  22. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Would of said yes at the start of this week, but unfortunately not now. :(
    Warm air still winning.
     
  23. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Could be 50/50. Metservice has snow levels down to 1200 on Monday...
     
  24. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

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    Just have to wait, still humid and mild in town, nothing to get exited about yet.
     
  25. The Snow Gauge

    The Snow Gauge Hard Yards

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    I hadn't seen a great deal of info about on NZ season predictions for 2016 thus far so I spoke to their Metservice and got some long range info from NIWA (the Kiwi institute of water/atmospheric research) today. It is general but makes some interesting reading for those considering a trip or season there. Sounds like a slow start at the very least unfortunately ...

    http://thesnowgauge.net/new-zealand/new-zealand-2016-snow-season-outlook/
     
  26. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Not great reading unfortunately, considering we've booked for 12th July. Can only hope it picks up...
     
  27. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Don't stress............it's normal at this time. The switch can happen very quickly.
     
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  28. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    25cm for remarks is entirely possible. They have had a fair bit over the last two days.

    This system certainly ruined my early season prediction. That high sitting on australia can sit there for all i care, its feeding fronts onto us like a damn conveyor belt right now. just need the SAM to go a big more negative and fire those southerly winds at us for some nice cold air.
     
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  29. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    That nots really the out of the ordinary for mount cook. You dont get 20Km glaciers from the pitiful snowfalls we get in the central/eastern ranges. People tend to associate NZ with low snowfall but the western half of the southland is like a mini alaska. Its probably physically impossible to accurately measure snowfall in the Aoraki region.

    Also http://www.avalanche.net.nz/forecasts/detail.asp?m=9
    Not much beta, but FL is low up there so plenty of snow. They need it, glaciers took a beating this summer by the looks of it.
     
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  30. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    I use a large combination and make my mind up from common themes on them all.
    Metservice.com is useful, the ski area forecasts are very generalised to the region however.
    Metvuw.com is useful for its weather charts as they are quite detailed and paint a good picture if you can read em.
    i enjoy the precip/freezing level map on snowforecast.com, i never trust their amounts but the freezing levels i find to be rather accurate.
    Any GFS model like weatheronline.co.uk etc is pretty handy to look at too. If you look at precip charts and you have the 528 and the 540 over most of the country we should be getting snow.
     
  31. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ta, yeah we got 2 M of fresh over 5 days at Tasman Saddle in July 84 ( much time spent shovelling) but I thought 4.7 M was off the Richter scale of it came off!
     
  32. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Looks like you may be right Zimboo. Moutainwatch going with 1cm for Monday with 10mm of rain...
     
  33. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good thing Kelman Hut has that convenient drop to throw the snow into, huh?
     
  34. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was pre Kelman days.
    Hunkered down in Tas Saddle Hut back then.
     
  35. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Looking like Queenstown resorts may get another shot of snow Friday-Saturday...
     
  36. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    Looks like it's snowing on the upper mountain at Treble Cone. Rest of the week is look good as well. Let's hope the snow sticks around and it doesn't get to warm.
     
  37. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Was snowing to about 1600m and lower today, still raining heavy in bursts, blowing SW last time i was outside. havent seen it this rowdy in a while...
     
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  38. Centago

    Centago Addicted

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    I see Coronet Peak have fired up the snow guns. Seems a little early, especially compared to previous years, maybe it's just a test. Or maybe they like the look of the predicted temps for the coming week and are making hay while the sun shines.
     
  39. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Looks like a bit of rain Wednesday, until a bit of a cold change that we've been wating for! This weekend looking good for some white stuff...
     
  40. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Not overly early, they are expected to open in about 3 weeks. I think its because the system is now fully automatic (bar deicing etc) they dont really need stuff to check it out. I think i saw groomers driving on the M1 this morning on the way to work..

    Just wish remarks would turn theirs on... its alot bloody colder up there, and they have alot more water to play with.
     
  41. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    MODIS Image from 17th of May.
    Garvie/Old Woman/Old Man/Umbrella is doing well..
     
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  42. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Apparently Remarks will be firing them up 3 weeks before opening. So should see them on next weekend or so...
     
  43. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    Trying to find historical data for snow in NZ. Does anyone know where to find it/is it online?
     
  44. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    www.onthesnow.com.au. Use the search bar up the top to search for resorts.
     
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  45. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    System next Wednesday-Thursday also shaping up nicely for higher resorts.
     
  46. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Tie everything down Draizah / Centago / Expatgm. Looks windy as the next few days...............................with white stuff included.
     
  47. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Doesn't look unusually windy. Should be a wee bit more snow at least.
     
  48. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Severe gale 90km winds forecast for the sth lakes hills this afternoon / night into tomorrow according to Metservice?
     
  49. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Looks a bit blowy up at Treble Cone this morning.................

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Charts looking very good at the moment for NZ. Should get good snow this weekend and then a week later this...................I know it's a long way out, but looks promising at this stage.
    Very cold air behind the first big low.

    [​IMG]
     
    #50 Zimboo, May 21, 2016
    Last edited: May 21, 2016
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