New Zealand NZ Obs/Predictions 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Draizuh, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. col

    col One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    271
    Likes Received:
    291
    Looks like some really heavy rain :( followed by some heavy snow :) for Canterbury.
     
  2. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,988
    Likes Received:
    1,119
    Location:
    Wakatipu
    Temple basin is the place to ski in canty. Its gonna get smashed*!

    *It also might piss down with rain.
     
  3. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    233
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Christchurch
  4. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2015
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    52
    Awesome to finally see a nice little system pop up. Been Veddy Veddy quiet latley.
    Anyone put a finger on why Metservice mountain forecast isn't giving it much for Wednesday night considering this is a forecast team? They usually overstate things than understate. I'm guessing tomorrows details will be different with the Thursday forecast coming in!!
    Snow Forecast is all over the show with it again.
    Anyway I'm looking forward to my first experience up in Remarks come Sat-Sun-Mon.. Yeeoww
     
    Zeb Dub likes this.
  5. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,988
    Likes Received:
    1,119
    Location:
    Wakatipu
    It was a cold day today finally. I wasnt quiet prepared for work hah. Didnt get over 4.
    -4 over night. Biggest frost on my truck all winter.
    Heard CP has been running snowmaking for the last 6 days straight.

    if Snow forecast is right with remarks some rain it could be alright to get some offpiste open.
     
  6. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    Looks like the ducks are finally starting to line up.........................
     
  7. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Wind has picked up a bit up here at Remarks, has been chilly but not overly cold. The storm clouds are building :)
     
  8. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    Weatherwatch[​IMG]
     
  9. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    Gee the big high that's driving this system looks like stalling over Australia for a while which should deliver good bursts of sou-westerly cold and moisture right through until the weekend.
     
  10. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
  11. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Thunder-snow!
     
  12. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    Chucking it down on the Remarks cams.
     
  13. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Looks like some wet snow falling above 1600-1700m at the moment. Better than expected so far, let's hope this trend continues.
     
  14. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Rain has also subsided a bit in QTown and some fog moving down into the valley, can't see Remarks.
     
  15. pedub

    pedub One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2015
    Messages:
    924
    Likes Received:
    634
    Anyone else having trouble checking the TC cams?

    I'm hoping its some sort of snow related technical issue :)
     
  16. windy

    windy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2016
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    16
  17. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    NZTA are closing the Milford Road at Hollyford from 7pm this evening in expectation of heavy snow overnight at the Tunnel.
     
  18. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Cardrona reporting 10cm so far today.
     
  19. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    233
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Christchurch
    Just got back from Castle Hill, was 11c and raining. Mountains looked very wet. Hope the wind changes soon otherwise gunna be a wet few days!!!
     
  20. col

    col One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    271
    Likes Received:
    291
    should cool down enough tonight but it has been raining all day up here in Canterbury. Cant do much damage because there is no snow anyway.
     
  21. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    Clearing briefly now in Queenstown. We're still in a strong northerly flow.
     
  22. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Could possibly get a dusting in Queenstown early Friday AM. Wind was strong most of the day, didn't bother going up the mountains today.
     
  23. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    Craigieburn from their facebook
    [​IMG]
     
    skiingtk, Zimboo, Claude Cat and 2 others like this.
  24. pedub

    pedub One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2015
    Messages:
    924
    Likes Received:
    634
    I must go here some day
     
  25. pedub

    pedub One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2015
    Messages:
    924
    Likes Received:
    634
    Base at TC. What a difference from last night[​IMG]
     
    skiingtk and ScottGN like this.
  26. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    25,736
    Likes Received:
    11,721
    Location:
    Dunedin, NZ
    Personally I'm most interested to hear an update from Temple Basin.
     
    ScottGN, Draizuh and Centago like this.
  27. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Mountains all around Queenstown are white down to about half way this morning, looks a bit more like winter :)
     
    Untele-whippet likes this.
  28. col

    col One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    271
    Likes Received:
    291
    Only 5cm here in Canterbury. Looks like more waiting before I can use my seasons pass.

    Temple Basin forecast to get 150cm next 2 days.
     
    #478 col, Jul 14, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2016
  29. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    A few tiny flakes coming down amongst the rain drops where I am, 450m ASL. Rain has been off and on all day so far.
     
  30. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    Looks like 10-15cm fell around Queenstown/Wanaka. Should get the same again today/tonight.
    Charts looking goooooooooooood.
     
  31. Centago

    Centago Addicted

    Joined:
    May 20, 2008
    Messages:
    414
    Likes Received:
    237
    From 9 p.m. Tuesday (12 July) to midday today Mt Cook Village has received 237.4 mm of rain. The mean temperature during that time has been 4.8C, although approx half of that precip fell when mean temps were 7-8C. A little back of the envelope calculation tells me the freezing level during this time averaged ~1500 m, but got up around 2200 m at times. Of course snow would've fallen below the freezing level, particularly given the pulses of high precip rates.

    In summary there has been a shit-tonne of snow along the Main Divide above 2000 m already with plenty more to come! There will be some big avalanches out those ways.

    Quick Qtown ob - clouds parting with patches of blue sky - precip largely being confined to the mountains to the west/souwest just now. Snowline on the western and northern flanks of Remarkables sitting around 1000 m.
     
  32. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    418
    Likes Received:
    397
    Any reports/obs on TC? Headed over first week of August and at decision point time soon.
     
  33. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    If the current charts stay true there will be a stack of snow by the 1st week of August.
    Currently looks like good snow tonight/tomorrow, then Sunday, then again Tuesday.
    Then there is another system which looks very large clocked to arrive the next Sunday onwards.
     
    Stiffler likes this.
  34. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    Loads of snow lined up for Ruapehu through the weekend too.
     
    Centago likes this.
  35. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,988
    Likes Received:
    1,119
    Location:
    Wakatipu
    TC Opening home basin on saturday, not enough at saddle drive to open apparently. that could change tonight.
     
  36. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,115
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    Location:
    Wakatipu, Te Waipounamu
    QLDC Facebook
    "UPDATE: We're expecting significantly more snow tonight down to low levels. Our contractors have advised that there may be rolling closures of the Crown Range between midnight tonight and 7am tomorrow. We'll update if we can, but please factor this into your travel plans and consider the alternative route via Cromwell. Don't even think about it if you don't have chains."
     
    Zimboo and Draizuh like this.
  37. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,988
    Likes Received:
    1,119
    Location:
    Wakatipu
    Apparently people were getting pissy about it haha.

    Windy as all hell at mine... Good test for the garden shed!
     
  38. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    Looks like big snow after midnight.
     
  39. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    230
    Location:
    Queenstown
    yep saw that earlier, raining at home = snowing in the hills.
     
  40. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2005
    Messages:
    233
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Christchurch
    Temps at castle hill have risen 2.5C in the last hour, hopefully the spike before the cooler air comes. Canty fields( especially BR )need a good 50cm before they are good to go , otherwise it's just rock and tussock skiing. May get some of that tonight and Sunday looking better now!! Hope so as up there all next week .....
     
  41. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    346
    Likes Received:
    245
    Was going to head up Remarks today but just woke up and can hear the wind howling outside. It has been raining all night in QTown so looking forward to seeing those mountains when the sun rises shortly.
     
  42. Zeb Dub

    Zeb Dub First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2016
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    8
    About 30cm of snow received so far for Ruapehu with another 50cm over the next 3 days. Looks like winter is here :cheers:
     
    ScottGN and Untele-whippet like this.
  43. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    Another 15cm overnight around the southern lakes.
     
    skiingtk, Untele-whippet and windy like this.
  44. col

    col One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    271
    Likes Received:
    291
    Saw this one on metvuw

    [​IMG]
     
    7wombathead and windy like this.
  45. windy

    windy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2016
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    16
    Is that going to be cold enough? It looks like the winds will be from the west and not the north. So good news?
     
  46. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    25,736
    Likes Received:
    11,721
    Location:
    Dunedin, NZ
    The next day is looking better
     
    Zimboo likes this.
  47. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,784
    It's still such a long way out, but at least it's there and one to keep an eye on. Fingers crossed.
    Should get close to another foot of snow before then anyway. :)
     
  48. Heinz

    Heinz Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2005
    Messages:
    26,267
    Likes Received:
    10,325
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Fog peak looking better now.

    [​IMG]
     
  49. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,988
    Likes Received:
    1,119
    Location:
    Wakatipu
    You here early, or is this normal time?
     
  50. Heinz

    Heinz Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2005
    Messages:
    26,267
    Likes Received:
    10,325
    Location:
    Adelaide
    No not my pic, that was posted by HMH. Roger was suggesting 1.2m fresh.

    But I'll be there in 2 weeks so this storm was very timely. Happy to see that Fog is looking more like I am used to seeing it. Hopefully a bit more to come next week.
     
    #500 Heinz, Jul 15, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2016