New Zealand NZ Obs/Predictions 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Draizuh, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Location, Location, Location.
    Treble Cone is the closest of the Southern Lakes ski areas to the Main Divide and so benefits most from the spillover as the weather systems move in from the west. As little as 15 kilometres east of the alps can make all the difference such is the intensity of the orographic precipitation that we get along the Southern Alps. It's a double edged sword, of course, heavy rain in a moist, mild nor-westerly is also likely and the areas further east will not see nearly as much rain in those systems. Treble Cone also tends to miss out on snow in a true southerly or sou-easterly. Those systems can often be pretty good for Remarks and Cardrona.
     
  2. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Cheers for that explanation. This season its been all SW so thats probably why i've always seen TC with the highest snowfalls forecast. Is the season snowfall reliably recorded? In japan it seems all about the season tally. (But they have a lot to tally...)
     
  3. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    This sounds like marketing to me...

    Anyway,
    Thought saturday morning was gonna be something but nah.
    Sunday looks pretty good though..
    NW bringing some noise. that last snow wasnt that big...
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Also you tend to get steeper lins the day after the first blue bird day, and you can do way more with the chopper with no wind.
     
  5. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Almost everything on wind hold or closed in Sthn lakes.......................only thing I can see open is Valley view at Cardrona.
     
    #555 Zimboo, Jul 23, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2016
  6. col

    col One of Us

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    everything closed here in canterbury as well. 20 degrees in christchurch at the moment. Looks like a heap of rain going to push over the alps and do some damage at hutt and porters
     
  7. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Gee they almost always manage to get at least something open at Cardrona don't they?
    Bit of rain damage around by the looks of it. We do, however, have a heavy snow warning for Otago overnight and tomorrow.
     
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  8. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Pissed it down at mine most of the day. Glad i picked this weekend to renovate my laundry...
     
  9. Dumph

    Dumph Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    TC reporting 19cm and more on the way today. Next week lining up too, lots or lost in the forecast?
     
  10. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Could be worth a punt today though?
     
  11. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Renovating a laundry? just checked Ohau's report an they say 20cm with no wind! TC 19cm... looks like wind picking up tomorrow
     
  12. col

    col One of Us

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    Mt Hutt saying they have 10-20cm of new snow. Thats the first decent dump of snow there since May 29th.
     
  13. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weird weather eh? Mild and tropical-like in the north of the country. Decent snow down to 100 metres asl across Southland.
     
  14. col

    col One of Us

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    Temple Basin may do well out of this one.....100cm maybe. Last 24 hours over 200mm rain nearby:

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Satellite over the Alps today look insane Today.
     
  16. col

    col One of Us

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    Porters reporting 25 - 30cm this morning. Temple Basin would have got a heap more than that I expect but still no report from there.

    The next system looks good for some more on 28th
     
    #566 col, Jul 25, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2016
  17. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    I'm reading and getting jealous:
    47 over the past week at Cardrona
    19 yesterday 25 today at TC
    Ohau: Untracked 25 cms of fresh dry snow waiting for you as chair only opened for a short time yesterday.

    Roll on Friday
     
  18. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Broken River (from Kingswood Ski's facebook)
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Friday looks cold, sleety showers for Queenstown with snow later. The whole weekend looks like delivering quality snow.
     
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  20. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Arriving 8am Saturday and will ski either somewhere in Queenstown/wanaka or drive up to Ohau straight away for a couple of nights. Will wait to see the reports.

    I'm getting conflicting reports on the next week. Things keep changing... whatever happens looks like a big low heading right for the middle of the sth island.
     
  21. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Very cold air Saturday/Sunday with good snow from SW to low level in the Sth Lakes. Maybe lakelevel on Saturday night.
    Midweek looks like NWer which may well cross over and then swing some SEers back in later in the week. IMO
    Looks great!!!!!!!!!
     
  22. col

    col One of Us

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    Looks like winter will finally arrive for Canterbury starting the end of this week.

    Hopefully Temple Basin will open in 1-2 weeks.
     
  23. Zeb Dub

    Zeb Dub First Runs

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    So many opportunities at Mt Ruapehu for snow comming up I have no idea which map to pick from to post haha. So heres a summary of the snow over the coming 7 days starting Thursday.

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. mauricem

    mauricem Addicted

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    Wheels down in Christchurch tonight, hopefully be worth stopping at Ohau on the way down to Wanaka where I'm booked for 10 nights. Could be an interesting drive, I need to get better at fitting chains!
     
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  25. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Any predictions for mon-fri next week southern lakes? was looking like a heap of snow, now looks like bluebird?
    What charts do you use except for metvuw, metservice, snowforecast?
     
  26. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-...0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
    Yep, models moving around all over the place today, because of the predicted ECL forming off SE Aus early in the week.
    So much can change as its still a long way out.
     
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  27. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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  28. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    No, it's not bad news as it stands. Just depends where it starts and tracks, what air it drags in and what air is near that it drags in.
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-...0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
    This shows freezing levels, so it gives you an idea of the air temps, so if there is moisture you know your on a good thing (in general).
    If you go on from this hour above, you see it's an unknown as to what will happen with air temp, based on where the ECL goes.
     
    #578 Zimboo, Jul 26, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2016
  29. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Thanks for the link. A little different to what metvuw shows.. Hope that low tracks more southeast than its showing now
     
  30. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Yep, in Aus there is the 4 day rule regarding locking weather in. In NZ it's more like 2 days if your lucky.
     
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  31. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  32. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    And today, charts changed and no ECL forming next week off SE Australia.
     
  33. Zeb Dub

    Zeb Dub First Runs

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    Servere weather outlook provided by Metservice at 3pm today regarding snow.

     
  34. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Good drop of snow tonight, tomoz morning looks good, however it looks like Monday could be day of the season thus far in the sthn lakes. Wind drops, ski turns blue, a foot of fresh...................
     
  35. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    I like your prediction. Now to decide where to ski it.
    Chutes finally open
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    ^^^Looking mint^^^

    Can't wait to get over there :woohoo:
     
  37. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    You mean its more like open the curtains and see what its doing on the day ;)

    Crazy black ice in ZQN this morning. got a bit slippery on the way to work haha.

    RE : Ohau earlier in the week, i believe they have the US Ski team incoming and have 10 TF10 fan guns running so they should have good piste and this NWer should fill in the rest nicely.
     
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  38. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And according to the QLDC roading network update this morning some impatient dickheads were overtaking the grit trucks. The neighbourhood is going to the dogs.
     
  39. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Yeah i saw that. why you would ever think that was a good idea i dont know. There was a surf on its side, fazing the opposite way it was going, in the opposite lane this morning near the community gardens
     
  40. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

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    Yeah someone managed to roll their SUV on the dead straight section on crown terrace this morning. Probably a rental, slipped on grit and panicked ??? Fknows.
     
  41. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Probably Australians..........or young NZers. Cold ,low level snow this weekend.................stay safe on the roads peeps.
     
  42. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Been Raining hard here in Te Anau today. Nice little front. Hope it dumps.. Had a nice little surprise wake up call last Sunday in little Ole TA..
    [​IMG]
     
    #592 Baggage, Jul 27, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2016
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  43. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    So true, it's such a hard call when so many things can change between SE Aus and NZ. Sometimes it's easier to predict like this weekend IMO. Pure cold SW.
     
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  44. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Wye Not.. Last Monday..

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Treble Cone is on hold this morning until they clear 50cms off the road. 10-30cms for the other Southern Lakes areas.
     
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  46. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Wouldn't have been young New Zealanders, their all over here in oz living off the welfare!
     
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  47. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    You really should be touring locally. If I called Te Anau home, I don't think I'd bother commuting to QT much to ride lifts. Luxmore isn't too far away.
     
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  48. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Today looks like one of those days when Coronet is really worth it.
     
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  49. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    I'd like to stoke the fire a bit
    [​IMG]

    On topic, wow what a day, when will TC open I wonder?
     
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  50. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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