New Zealand NZ Obs/Predictions 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Draizuh, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. tonks

    tonks Hard Yards

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    More snow this weekend too as that front and low push across
     
  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Temperature has dropped like a stone and it looks pretty ominous out west now. Metservice saying snow down to 200 metres for Otago and Southland.
     
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  3. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Maybe some planes diverted to Dunedin over the next couple of days?
     
  4. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Are you locking that in? (its less than 2 days)
    I f***** hope not!
     
  5. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Hey Red, Just getting back into it so getting the legs going. Also would like to do Avo Training before I attempt any back country touring. I here you though and hopefully I can fit some Southern Stuff in eventually. Luxmore looking pretty sweet today.
     
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  6. mauricem

    mauricem Addicted

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    Pole deep at TC today in the home basin which finally opened at about 11AM, Saddle was still closed at 2.30pm when I left but powder bowl was open for business. Its the best I've seen it. Looks like its snowing now!
     
  7. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    As pointed out before, we arent entitled to welfare in Australia, probably because aussies dont know how to treat people with respect. Unlike us who let aussies who decide to call these isles home vote, get free accident/emergency care. Oh and you are entitled to welfare too ;)
     
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  8. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Locals (with airport knowledge) may be able to say (thus why I put a ?). It is low level snow but Queenstown airport operations has improved greatly over recent years to deal with such weather. Looks like tomoz morning is 400m freeze level rising to 700m Saturday morning, then Sunday morning down to 200m Freeze level. Think you said your arriving Sat morning, so should be all good.
     
    #608 Zimboo, Jul 28, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2016
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Enjoy cuzzy bros.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Queenstown airport has all the kit to deal with snow and will stay operational. The airlines, however, may decide not to land and divert instead to either Dunedin or Invercargill or cancel.
     
  11. Zeb Dub

    Zeb Dub First Runs

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    Reports of 60cm in the last 24 hours for Ruapehu giving a 1.5m base. Models suggest another 60+ for the next 2-3 days is easly achievable. Wow how things changed over the course of 2-3 weeks
     
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  12. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Not a ECL but a low is back on the charts forming east of Tasmania mid next week. What is does - time will tell.
     
  13. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  14. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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  15. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    On the metservice 5 day now it looks like it just pushes on east towards nz? By Wednesday.

    About to take off☺
     
  16. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Midnight Saturday. Some nice chunky shower activity and almost all the lower South Island in the snow zone.
    [​IMG]
     
  17. col

    col One of Us

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    Still does not look like much for Canterbury over the weekend. Maybe 5-10cm. I did my 1st day yesterday at Porters which had very limited terrain. Spent most of the day dodging the rocks on leaper.

    Feel sorry for Mt. Dobson. They have been open the last few weeks with very little snow or people. No way they will be covering their costs
     
  18. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Snowing at Craigieburn.
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Rain/sleet in lindis pass
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    that was a big fizzle. cold temps. **** all else!!
     
  21. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Also, looks like the ECL is making its return..
     
  22. notty

    notty Addicted

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    currently snowing big fat flakes here in the Dunedin hills, the season is looking good!
     
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  23. mauricem

    mauricem Addicted

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    TC did OK, was snowing heavily for a while yesterday but poor visibility sent me home early just before it cleared up:( Today was bluebird with fresh powder as Saddle basin was closed all yesterday. Pic below from this morning looking down Bullet
    [​IMG]

    Glad I got there early, cars were parked probably 5ks down the road but strangely the lift waits weren't that bad once the saddle opened.
     
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  24. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  25. col

    col One of Us

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    saw this one for thursday. Hope Canterbury get something out of this. Temple Basin is still closed due to lack of snow and its August tomorrow :(


    [​IMG]
     
  26. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Ohau got some too.
    Got here yesterday afternoon for 20cm coat everywhere. Ridge was closed. Overnight they had a dusting that covered all the tracks. This is from my last hike today.

    But wow the mountain scenery here. Its like wanaka on crack. Best I've seen in NZ
     
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  27. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Temple is opening on thursday.
     
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  28. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    It's a gorgeous little ski hill :) You get some fine snow over to the left after an easy traverse :D
     
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  29. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

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  30. col

    col One of Us

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    If this comes off there will be alot up in Canterbury. Should be a season opener for the club fields:

    [​IMG]
     
  31. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    They might have regretted parking at this spot last weekend.
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Where is that?
     
  33. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Lake Rotoiti, Nelson Lakes National Park, upper South Island. A lovely part of the South Island that often gets (unfairly) eclipsed by some of the more dramatic bits of the country.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ah, I thought it looked familiar. We camped at Nelson Lakes a few years ago. Some bloody huge eels under that pier.
     
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  35. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    An overrunning snow event may be on the cards for the later this week. If it comes off it will dramatically change the currently pretty dire situation in Canterbury. Metservice has issued a Severe Weather Outlook and gone so far as to advise that normal computer guidance doesn't model this situation very well for NZ.
    [​IMG]
     
    #636 ScottGN, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
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  36. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    I love over runs!
    Got the week off work hoping it was going to provide some good weather... Not the case! maybe ill just skin around the yard?
     
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  37. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Was at cardrona today and it got a light dusting. Just over the ridge OOB at captains there was still plenty of untracked pow leftover from the last few days. Seems like not many ppl know/care about that spot. Or they are not willing to do the hike back up
     
  38. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    What's the likelihood of flights being delayed/cancelled on Wednesday? Im flying in with virgin and it looks like there will be a bit of weather. Should I be worried?
     
  39. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    We now have a Severe Weather Watch from Metservice

    Valid to 8:21pm Tuesday 2 Aug 2016

    SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR CANTERBURY PLAINS, CHRISTCHURCH, CENTRALOTAGO, SOUTHERN LAKES, DUNEDIN, CLUTHA, SOUTHLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2021hrs 01-Aug-2016

    HEAVY SNOW ABOUT EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY

    A complex low pressure system is expected to move onto the country from the south Tasman Sea during Wednesday, then move slowly northeastwards across New Zealand during Thursday and Friday,bringing rain to many parts of the country, with snow lowering to low levels about the east of the South Island.

    This Watch is for the possibility that snow accumulations could approach warning amounts above 400 metres for inland Southland, Otago and South Canterbury on Wednesday, and possibly to low levels in Otago on Thursday, and also Canterbury and Kaikoura on Thursday and Friday.

    This may be a significant snow event for these areas.

    People in all these area should keep up to date with the latest forecasts, as parts of this Watch may be upgraded to a full warning, and further areas could be added.

    This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Tuesday 2 August 2016
     
  40. col

    col One of Us

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    Looks like it will snow in Christchurch on Thursday/Friday.

    A bit of a downgrade this morning I reckon. Metservice predict 40cm for Mt. Hutt.
     
  41. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Snowforcast is showing ridiculous amounts for mt hutt. Thurs - 25cm. Fri - 100cm. Sat - 50cm.....

    Hoping to get up to TC tomorrow but depending on the amount of snow and the wind things could be on hold a while.
     
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  42. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like the second half of that rugby match is coming true. Aussie wins the 1st half, kiwis win the second half.
     
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  43. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Every Aussie who I've come across on this trip has complained how their snow is sh1t. But from reports it seemed like they've had a good season so far?

    However
    Apparently it costs 120 for a lift pass and 47 just to park your car in the carpark
     
  44. Stiffler

    Stiffler One of Us

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    Yes this year in oz has seen some good dumps with some great skiing but generally followed up with warmish temps an moisture and yes it's ridiculously expensive but it's a supply an demand thing I guess. Though it would be a brave person who planned and travelled to oz for a ski trip! We are not known for our snow, just for invading others great snow!
     
  45. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    You mean into Soho Basin?? Thats cause its a seperate cat skiing area...
     
  46. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    We now have a warning

    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
    ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:47 pm 02-Aug-2016
    Heavy snow for inland parts of Southland, Otago during Wednesday, and South Canterbury during Wednesday and Thursday

    A complex low pressure system is expected to move onto the country from the south Tasman Sea during Wednesday, then move slowly northeastwards across New Zealand during Thursday and Friday, bringing rain to many parts of the country, with snow lowering to low levels about the east of the South Island.

    The heaviest snow is likely about inland parts of Southland, Otago during Wednesday, where 20 to 30cm of snow is expected above 400m. For South Canterbury south of Fairlie, heavy snow is likely during Wednesday and early Thursday, with 25 to 35cm expected above 400 metres.

    Heavy snow can cause major distruption to transport as well as significant stress to livestock, and could cause power disruption. Blizzard conditions are also likely in exposed areas.

    Note, further snow is likely in eastern Otago early on Thursday, and from Canterbury to Kaikoura Coast during Thursday and Friday, and possibly to near sea level.

    HEAVY SNOW WARNING
    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Inland parts of Southland and Clutha.
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to turn to snow above 200 metres Wednesday morning. In the 12 hours from 6am to 6pm Wednesday, expect 15 to 25cm to accumulate above 400 metres, with 5 to 10cm possible down to 200 metres.

    FREEZING LEVEL: Lowering to 600 metres late Wednesday afternoon.

    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Otago, except for Clutha
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to turn to snow above 200 metres Wednesday morning. In the 18 hours from 6am to midnight Wednesday, expect 20 to 30cm to accumulate above 400 metres, with 5 to 10cm down to 200 metres. Heavy snow is expected to ease about Central Otago and Southern Lakes late Wednesday afternoon or evening, but continue in eastern Otago through to midnight Wednesday.

    Note, a Watch is in place for heavy snow to 400 metres in eastern Otago Thursday morning

    AREA/S AFFECTED
    Inland parts of South Canterbury south of Fairlie, including the Mackenzie Basin.
    FORECAST
    Rain is expected to turn to snow above 200 metres Wednesday morning. In the 24 hours from 9am Wednesday to 9am Thursday, expect 25 to 35cm to accumulate above 400 metres, with 10 to 15cm down to 200 metres.

    Note, a Watch is in place for possible heavy snow to low levels for Canterbury during Thursday and Friday.

    FREEZING LEVEL: Lowering to 600 metres Wednesday morning.

    NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 am Wednesday 03-Aug-2016
     
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  47. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Looking awesome!
     
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  48. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

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    Brig downgrade for Canty fields for Friday on both metservice and metvu.. Hopefully it's a glitch as really need the 50cm+ that was predicted for then.Off to porters for a hopeful arvo powder sesh if the weather clears as predicted!!!
     
  49. col

    col One of Us

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    should get the 40cm predicted by the weekend. Porters reporting 10cm already and its not going to stop anytime soon. Wow check out the freeze levels on Friday morning. The whole South Island is covered:

    [​IMG]