New Zealand NZ Obs/Predictions 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Draizuh, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    Yeah this looks like a slow start to the season :eek:
     
  2. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Another 10-15cm on Thursday. Thoughts?
     
  3. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Ask again on Wednesday. :p
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Hutt got sweet FA
     
  5. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    So did TC.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I don't follow TC on facey.
     
  7. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That makes a change.
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I thought this change was pretty south?
     
  9. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Usually the Sou-easterly skips most of Queenstown and dumps on the Canterbury high country.
     
  10. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Can't see it at this stage. Maybe just a handful of cms.
     
  11. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    The usual systems are ex tropical highs from the nw or NE that combine with the southerly stream this one the moisture came from the south and it started spinning to the south which is why we took the brunt of it. I think that low that was sitting over northland helped hold it in place too
     
  12. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Looks like that will be the case this coming weekend.
    System will cross North and then spin the moisture into Canterbury.
    Sth Lakes will miss out - Canterbury will get the next one.
     
  13. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Yeah this low originated in the South, and then stalled, longer than expected I think to the SSE. A classic Otago system. Remarks does really well from these - we had several such decent events in 2010. If this had happened in late June/July, with a little more southerly fetch, then something pretty spectacular would have occurred to very low levels across all of Otago. That said, we'd need a deeper low to provide the requisite instability for that too...

    MODIS/TERRA imagery from today shows the South Easterly fingerprint of this system pretty well, as the cloud begins to clear:
    [​IMG]

    The extent of coverage through the Lammerlaw/Lammermoor and Rock and Pillar Ranges is quite impressive, as is the Upper Maniototo/Taieri areas of the Hawkduns and Kakanuis. You can also see how extensive the snow cover is right where this lot were rescued from yesterday: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/80320335/there-was-no-point-in-panicking-rescued-4wd-enthusiast
     
    essjaywhy and windy like this.
  14. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Yeah looking like 5cm or so.
     
  15. col

    col One of Us

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    looks like about 5cm last night and another 5-10cm tonight for Canterbury

    20-50cm Saturday for Canterbury. This is looking good :

    [​IMG]
     
  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Why not?
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No idea...
    I should follow Rainbow as well....
    (i follow Lyford)
     
  18. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

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    Just scoped the cams at Cardrona, TC, the Remarks and CP.

    Have to laugh, as The Remarks are quoting a base of 75-100cm. All you can see are tufts of grass. Yeah great early season falls to build a base on but hardly 15cm, let alone 75cm.
     
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  19. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Looks like Remarks have a few guns on in that last shot of Sugar Bowl?
     
  20. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Wind. Also, some of dem tussocks are big.
     
  21. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Once the groomers start seriously pushing that snow around, you'll notice that those little gaps start to fill in.
     
  22. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Metservice predicting 14cm for Remarks tomorrow. Mountainwatch only 2cm, so don't know where Metservice is getting those figures from.
     
  23. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Most of those gaps are well off piste, the only thing that will fill em in is wind and snow.
     
  24. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Oh ok
     
  25. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

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    Some of those tussocks are rocks, if you've been up to single cone in summer you'll know how big those rocks are and the gaps between them. Keep it in perspective this last system fell on a very thin snow cover so 75 wind blown cms is just the base layer for the season.
    And as the last couple of days have been cold and sunny I would imagine the development of a good hoar frost which could lead to a buried weak layer after the next snowfall.
     
  26. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    I think it's because Metservice model/chart has a small band of medium to heavy stuff going through between 6am and 9am. If it happens its a bonus.
     
  27. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Not likely though. Looking at the charts a few cm's tonight and Thursday morning will be about it for a while.
     
  28. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Metservice use a different model at that level, can resolve a bit of stuff you won't see elsewhere. Doesn't mean it will definitely happen, mind you.
     
  29. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Yep, happy for indifference......................last system they where a little out. :whistle:
     
  30. col

    col One of Us

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    Sat 28 May 2016 - could be 50-100cm for Canterbury. Chart is looking better this morning.
     
  31. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Looks better for the southern lakes as well. Charts now indicating that it will swing in again from the SE after hitting Canterbury.
     
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  32. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Looks like Remarks picked up a few cm's overnight.
     
  33. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    However, looking past "Metservice" another chart indicates it will continue to move away and not swing back in onto the Sth Lakes.
    So, the jury is out.
     
  34. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Moutainwatch and Metservice both agreeing it will swing towards the lakes. We will see come Saturday...
     
  35. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Warning issued by Metservice for 20-30cm above 1200m in Otago on Saturday.
     
  36. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Base is on piste, not offpiste. And they measure base at two different locations. They dont exactly walk around with a ruler prodding at random spots and take measurements.

    a friend who lives a few km down the road from me recorded 90mm of rain, his paddocks were so flooded he was mustering stock on a jetski.
     
    essjaywhy and windy like this.
  37. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    How is the lake? Close to busting into the streets if you had another one?
     
  38. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    It was a few days ago, i havent been near it up in queenstown to check, But if we had a big one out near the divide it would do some damage. would have to be big though, that one a few years back made it raise a few metres.
    This system didnt put a hell of alot of moisture into the main catchment so didnt raise it too much.
     
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  39. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Damage control for those 4wders getting stuck.
     
  40. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Forecasts indicating Queenstown area set to miss out this weekend. Your turn Canterbury..;)
     
  41. col

    col One of Us

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    Metservice chart still looking very good for tonight going into Sunday morning. My guess is 20-100cm in Canterbury by Sunday. Forecast for Mt Hutt is 44cm and Porters 42cm. Freezing level: 1300 metres.

    [​IMG]
     
    essjaywhy and windy like this.
  42. jab1966

    jab1966 Hard Yards

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    There goes my daughter netball again!!! Why did I pick this year to have a knee op... Does look good though and the perfect system for Canterbury as long as it stays south east not north east. A couple of mates hit BR last week, bit boney ,but the photos looked good....
     
  43. col

    col One of Us

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    Mt. Hutt reporting 32cm and still snowing. Another band of moisture coming through on the radar. Should be at least 5-10cm more coming.
     
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  44. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Bitterly cold down my way, wee bit of fresh up high but not much in the way of precip so far, Lets see what the afternoon bringing. Hoping it blows over and gives me a nice day to go for a tour tomorrow!
     
  45. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Looks like its come in and snowing now. Also looks like its going to be very very cold on Tuesday with some white stuff falling to low levels.
     
  46. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Coronet Peak reporting 10cm at base level. 5cm at Remarks.
     
  47. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Good for snow making as well.
     
  48. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Remarks posted on FB this afternoon that they have had atleast 10cm.
    Dry most of the day at mine, but bitterly cold, sitting on about 4 degrees now.

    Metservice forecasting snow in town on tuesday... We shall see!
     
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  49. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Next Tuesday also shaping up better for Queenstown area, looking like 10-15cm at the moment.
     
  50. col

    col One of Us

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    5-10cm for Canterbury down low on Tuesday. Mt Hutt is looking good:

    [​IMG]