New Zealand NZ Obs/Predictions 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Draizuh, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. craighelo

    craighelo One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Went up Coronet for the morning, glass of bubbly and eight runs down the M1 was OK for first day.
     
  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Coronet Peak currently has snowmaking underway and there's been a dusting of fresh overnight. Cardrona reckons it got 15 cms. QLDC are saying chains may soon be needed for the Crown Range road.
     
  3. col

    col One of Us

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    looks like more snow on 15th. Queenstown/Wanaka may do well out of it. Canterbury may have to wait until the 20th.
     
  4. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Remarks cams looking tasty today :)
     
  5. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Wouldn't be surprised if a few from here are touring around the Remarks today.
    Maybe it's Draizuh who sets the resort opening dates................for his own pleasure.
     
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  6. furtherfaster

    furtherfaster Hard Yards

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    Mount Hutt webcams looking good now should be a good day tommorow up there
     
  7. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Haha sadly i didnt get out today! the forecast was for crap weather and i had other stuff to do!

    Id much prefer it to stay open later rather than open early!
     
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  8. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Temps dropping and a big night of snowmaking coming up. Coronet Peak should have some more runs open tomorrow.
     
  9. col

    col One of Us

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    Mt Hutt looking better after 20cm yesterday. Hopefully more coming on the15th
     
  10. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Stupidly warm. 13c. Was cold this morning but not this evening.
     
  11. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    lol. Try coming to Canberra at the moment. Its forecast for 16c tomorrow. Its normally around 10-11 in June. Ridiculous temps everywhere really both NZ and Aus. Seems to be a continuation of the warmest autumn on record.....
     
  12. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Got my gear sorted in Q'twn and then headed up Sat arvo to Coronet. Had a few slushy runs getting the legs back and sussing out my new setup. Snow fell in the early hours of Sunday but rain did eat a bit into the change. Only couple cm fell but Sunday was fun and great to be back in the groove and seeing everyone enjoying themselves. Couple snaps.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Baggage Selfie..

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Rained overnight on Coronet Peak. Remarks got a dusting up higher. Pretty mild temps this morning.
     
  15. col

    col One of Us

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    same here in Canterbury. Rained last night here but snowing now this morning. Was warm in CHC yesterday. This will be an overall loss of cover :(

    what do you guys think about the system coming in on 25th ?
     
  16. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    It's a long way out, but still looking relatively warm. One of the big issues right now is that sea surface temps all around NZ are currently well up on normal, compared to this time last year, when they were at, or below, normal.
     
  17. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Charts look rubbish for at least another week before any change.
     
  18. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    We're nearly at the shortest day so the coldest bit is yet to come, but so far this winter is turning out pretty much the way NIWA forecast, overall, warmer, wetter and milder.
     
  19. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

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    Yeah, all we can do is wait, that mid May event turned into a tease.
     
  20. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    In the context of what's actually going on, that event was a perturbation.
     
  21. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Snow forecasted down to 1000m and 800m on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Not much totals wise though. After that looks a bit bleak for a few weeks.
     
  22. col

    col One of Us

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    metservice also forecast 5mm of rain :(

    on the bright side it looks like the rain will miss Canterbury
     
  23. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Was speaking to a few guides/patrollers the other day and they were saying that most compacted trail base wont be going anywhere but we just need to get top ups now. High elevation areas like TC and Remarks arent looking too bad.
     
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  24. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    I don't get it Metservice is saying snow down to 1000m but the it also says that the freezing level will be at 2300m. How does that add up?
     
  25. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Physics
     
  26. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    I knew that it snowed lower than the freezing level but I didn't realise it would snow 1300m below the freezing level.
     
  27. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

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    It doesn't .
    If you look closely it says computer generated forecast on the ski field page, so it's model based assumptions and not human forecast . Afaik snow will fall about 200m below freezing level depending on what the wind does with it.
     
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  28. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Have a look at this chart. Then select the next 6hr block, then the next etc etc. You can see how tight / close geographically the difference in freezing level can be in NZ.
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-...0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
     
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  29. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    There are some other weird things that can go on too. Will post a link to a useful article tomorrow if I remember
     
  30. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Quite apart from the fact I shouldn't even be mowing the lawn in second half of June, to be out there doing it in shorts and tee shirt is crazy.
     
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  31. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    So hot out in arrowtown. I was in my work shirt and no thermals today. could have easily been in shorts.

    Rain in the foreseeable future... 2011 all over again.
     
  32. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    At least there is some snow on the ground. I remember in 2011 when we turned up in Queenstown in early July there was 0 natural snow. Plus we couldn't even get into NZ for the first week of the holiday because of the ash cloud stopping flights. Went back in September on the insurance money and there was snow then.
     
  33. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Should see some snow on the 28th ish hopefully. It will be well needed by then.
     
  34. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    And I got a bit sunburnt. Was going to go up the hill but CP looks bloody awful so I spent the day pottering in the garden.
     
  35. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    I remember when i was unemployed for 6 weeks! shitty shitty winter for everyone involved. On the plus side, if it is going La Nina, Pacific Northwest will be the place to be this coming NH Winter!
     
  36. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Wow, What a change. Really significant High's and Sub-Trop Lows. That magnificent May snowfall all but gone. The new run of weather show's some relief end of the month..
     
  37. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Its raining. Its not cold enough for snow at Resort levels. Upper slopes at Remarks and TC might get a dusting but 9 degrees and rain down here suggests rain up there :(
     
  38. expatgm

    expatgm Addicted

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    If it gets any worse they'll shut CP, has happened before.
     
  39. col

    col One of Us

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    Looks like more rain on 22nd :(

    This is now the 4th rain event in a row.
     
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  40. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    Snowed above 2000m, very wet heavy snow. Snow making on most of the day at Remarks, spoke to the head of snowmaking tonight and he said everything was firing!
     
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  41. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    How does that work? I thought for snowmaking to work well the relative humidity had to be low.
     
  42. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Coronet Peak looked barely ski-able today. Cardrona and Remarks not looking too bad considering recent weather. Shows what a few hundred metres of elevation can do.
     
  43. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    The rain was between 10pm and 2am. The snow making was on from dawn onwards where we had a beautiful day above the inversion layer. Weather happens fast in NZ. Very very very fast.
     
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  44. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    SST's are starting to ease back slightly.

    There's a chance that this weekends/early next weeks' system could get a little cooler, but it's a long shot.

    Weak La Nina is potentially where we are headed, less than ideal.
     
  45. col

    col One of Us

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    Rain on 22nd not looking good for Canterbury. I was up at Mt Hutt on Sunday & there was light drizzle all day.

    Porters was supposed to open today but it has no snow left from the 50-100 it had 1 month ago. 5 rain events in a row now and looks like at least 2 more on the way.
     
  46. Cam M

    Cam M Hard Yards

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    @col
    Best case scenario would could I expect if I'm arriving on the 12th July? How quickly could things turn around? Also if things were still pretty bleak when I got there, what would be the best resort that's close to Queenstown?
     
    #296 Cam M, Jun 21, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2016
  47. col

    col One of Us

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    Should be some new snow around the 26th. Not sure what will happen after that. Cross your fingers it doesn't rain again.
     
  48. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    30cm for Remarks if you believe mountain watch, I doubt it though. 5-10 cm imo
     
  49. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Treble Cone have postponed opening day.
     
  50. The Snow Gauge

    The Snow Gauge Hard Yards

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    So Metservice and NIWA proved on the money when I spoke to them about a month ago. I pointed out there looked to be a sizeable dump coming the South Island's way (it was about five days out at that point) which the NIWA meteorologist seemed non-plussed about. He said he had concerns that even if it was sizeable what looked like following may not see much or any of it hold.