New Zealand NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can you time travel?
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Tropical

    Tropical One of Us

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    Oops - I meant 7-10 August ....
     
  3. Libelle

    Libelle Hard Yards

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    Currently 6c in Wanaka and p*ssing down rain.
     
  4. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a bit far out to accurately predict the weather, but it does look like it will be quite mild next weekend with the possibility of some rain about the Southern Lakes
     
  5. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Rain going sideways in Ohau at the village, some of it frozen.
    Snowing up the top when I left today
     
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  6. col

    col One of Us

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    Temple Basin is forecast for 50cm today. Hope it happens since I plan on going there soon.
     
  7. hpsauce

    hpsauce A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    F$#King nuked atTC in the past few hrs. scroll through the TC base cam from about 230pm! :eek:
     
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  8. Centago

    Centago Addicted

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    July was a strange old month, great for Canterbury! Interesting to note Wanaka Airport received 87 mm of rain (229% of average), whereas Queenstown Airport received just 33 mm of rain (67% of average). I guess Wanaka was just far enough north to capture some of the precip associated with those 3 main low pressure systems as they developed/passed over the South Island, and by the time the lows moved east of NZ, Queenstown was too sheltered from the resulting southeasterly flow.

    Then there's Oamaru which until yesterday had recorded approx. the same amount of rain for July as Milford Sound - a rarity. Oamaru ended up with 224 mm for the month (553% of normal for July, and roughly half of its average annual rainfall).

    mtd_rain_anom.png
     
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  9. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Rain overnight at Porters leaving it a bit crusty (piste was perfect for the school racers), was just starting to soften in the sun, cloud has moved in, light snow started and now coming down more heavily with bigger flakes.
     
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  10. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Oh and ZERO wind!
     
  11. col

    col One of Us

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    Dobson was good last Saturday....40cm untracked powder.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  12. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    ^ epic, I'm one week too late sadly.

    Well at least there's great cover now. Looking down Big Mama this afternoon. 620m of vert in one wide open shot...hell of a face. Soft heavy snow lent itself to big wide turns, rewarding skiing.

     
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  13. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Did TC avoid rain yesterday? I'm skeptical
    Rain hit Ohau but got covered with a decent layer of soft stuff by late morning. Ended up being a nice day although a little heavy. It was my 4th day ever there, still finding new fun lines and drops... It's really good for a 1 lift hill.

    In wanaka now and if we can fast forward to the next storm that would be great...
     
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  14. craighelo

    craighelo One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looked pretty good on Facebook with yesterdays fresh snow [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Sunday...
     
  16. windy

    windy Hard Yards

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    Was up at Mt Hutt today. It snowed for half an hour in the morning and put a nice dusting on everything which made the groomers real nice. There was also some fun pockets of soft snow off trail in between the ice patches. The clouds came in super thick around lunch and we almost went home but then it cleared up for the last couple of hours.

    Hutt has really good coverage but it would be nice to have the snow soften up off trail. A top up would be even better.
     
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  17. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Damn those BR Facebook pics. Very tasty.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Coupla snaps from today. Porters and Big Mama from the road:



    Hiked up the Bealey Valley track at Arthur's Pass and got a great view of Temple Basin from the other side :

     
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  19. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Looks good but I bet not quite so amazing in reality...the report says dust on crust. We'll see when I get up to Cheeseman tomorrow.
     
  20. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    That's what I wondered about the recent TC pics too
    Was crusty at Cardona today, I suspect rain hit most places
     
  21. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So it looks like most Canterbury resorts are set with a decent base that will see them out for a long season, Mt Hutt especially with a 270cm base! But the Southern Lakes need some more totals to keep them chugging along.

    Early next week the temps look very mild.
     
    #471 Froff Life, Aug 3, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017
  22. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    First season in a while early August has been a bit... average??
    Still lots of cover in southern lakes though, as good as any other year. Just not much fresh snow.
     
  23. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Few cms of fresh on a soft-ish base, in the Craigieburns today. Off-piste is holding up pretty well, not too icy or too wet and heavy. Weather looking brilliant tomorrow.
     
  24. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    According to the heliski guides it's the BEST SEASON EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I'd say it's tracking at or slightly below average. Cover is good, really good in the East (that's just not really where the lifts are), but fresh needed.
     
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  25. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I just got back
    Yes ,had a decent day under the rotors but Cardrona was just mad with punters and had wind closure the day I was there and Coronet was "Coronet powder" and even more jam-packed with sad sacks
    Remarks hasn't opened Homeward Bound all season but was okay after the 5cm last Monday
    TC was decent but every inch of the saddle tracked out as expected
    Heading back in a month or so with the family after umming and ahhing about whether or not I'd do Thredbo
    I may have ummed when I should have ahhhed by the looks of the long range forecast
     
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  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday looks ugly for TC and Cardona :(
     
  27. pedub

    pedub One of Us

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    Have done some afternoons at Cardrona and TC this week.
    Cardrona not good at all, firm on and off trail and busy, also on the receiving end of some poor customer service but I won't go into that.
    TC surprisingly OK today. Still able to hike for some fun lines in soft snow, minimal queues, and plenty of room on trail. However, North facing slopes very crusty after the sun went down and cover is not good in Sundance and Matukituki.
    Ohau was the pick of the trip!
     
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  28. Draizuh

    Draizuh One of Us

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    No homeward in August == Shit season.
    Even 2011 homeward was open in july..
     
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  29. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Yeah precip started cranking up by late July in 2011. Next week should bring something.
     
  30. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ha ha-I've been judging seasons in the Southern Lakes the same way for years!:thumbs:
     
  31. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Hard Yards

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    Tuesday Wednesday looks ordinary for me in Christchurch... any thoughts were to go ? Was thinking Porters and Cragieburn or Broken River ? Too crappy for touring I think . Enys, Cloudsley and Torlesse look interesting...
     
  32. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday looks very wet at this stage, fingers crossed the freezing level drops or some resorts could be looking at 20mm of rain
     
  33. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Hard Yards

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    Thanks man thats what I thought :( . I'm at work today dreaming of the beautiful day at the clubbies....
     
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  34. Red_switch

    Red_switch Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Relatively high snowlune at AP for the time of year.
     
  35. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Snowed a few cents at Cheeseman overnight, then rained, then very wet snow at base level (but still snow!) Snowing as we left.

    Got some fresh tracks but very heavy and slow, leg breaker stuff.
     
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  36. essjaywhy

    essjaywhy One of Us

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    eyeing up Fox Peak for 1st time , but had to postpone Fairlie based trip, at least a week , poor wx
     
  37. col

    col One of Us

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    Canterbury is crusty at the moment. I was at Dobson yesterday with 5cm fresh but not enough to cover the crust. Need a topup of snow.
     
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  38. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Dobson
    If it's snowing there's zero visibility
    If it isn't there's a massive crust that makes anything off piste blurdy hard work
    Not sure why but its been my experience over the past 20 years
     
  39. col

    col One of Us

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  40. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Today and tomorrow unfortunately looking pretty wet for most South Island resorts, but next weekend looks like a decent top up
     
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  41. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I reckon the Tasman seesaw is definitely a thing.

    Dumping hugely in Aus, rain in NZ. Then it will swing back, and be 15 degrees in Thredbo village and snowing down to the valley floors in NZ.
     
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  42. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep it always seems as if one country is winning, the other is getting nothing, and vice versa
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Could get some wickedness up North.
     

    Attached Files:

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  45. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    What Vino ya on?
    Grain of salt unless 2 days out for NZ. IMO
     
    #495 Zimboo, Aug 9, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2017
  46. Tropical

    Tropical One of Us

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    What are your thoughts on the forecast for this weekend 12-14 August and then again on 17 August for the southern lakes? I am heading to Queenstown for my bucks party on Saturday and the staying for the week. :) Mountainwatch and the Frog have OK forecasts but I am interested in the collective wisdom of this forum.

    We are considering a mix of Remarkables, Coronet Peak, Treble Cone and Remarkables Backcountry (Wye Creek) with Aspiring Guides.
     
  47. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm certainly no expert, but It looks like Saturday will be a very windy and wet/sleety day, but you're arriving then so I assume you won't be skiing? Sunday freezing levels will lower and it won't be as windy. Early next week is still pretty variable at this stage... There looks like there could decent falls in the North Island as a big low churns around, but it's too early to tell if it will track over the South Island yet. Enjoy your week and let us know the conditions you experience :)
     
  48. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    http://www.metservice.com/skifields/the-remarkables
     
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  49. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    So getting through today I see a much nicer picture for the rest of August for the Southern Lakes which is great news for competitors in the Winter games
    I think there could be 3 decent snow bearing classic southerly systems before the end of August( IMO) with pretty cold temps in between
    The yin and yang of Oz vs NZ snow!
    3 in a row over the next forthight hopefully

    fullsizeoutput_20f7.jpeg fullsizeoutput_20f9.jpeg fullsizeoutput_20f6.jpeg
     
    #499 Call_me_Ishmael, Aug 11, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
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  50. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    TC tonight
     
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