New Zealand NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
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Melbourne
Any thoughts on 7-10 July for the Southern Lakes?
Can you time travel?
879c0f968d073e366b4eedf9773b5007
 
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pedub

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Jul 26, 2015
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Rain going sideways in Ohau at the village, some of it frozen.
Snowing up the top when I left today
 
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col

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Jun 25, 2005
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Temple Basin is forecast for 50cm today. Hope it happens since I plan on going there soon.
 

hpsauce

A Local
Ski Pass
May 19, 2008
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F$#King nuked atTC in the past few hrs. scroll through the TC base cam from about 230pm! :eek:
 
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Centago

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May 20, 2008
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July was a strange old month, great for Canterbury! Interesting to note Wanaka Airport received 87 mm of rain (229% of average), whereas Queenstown Airport received just 33 mm of rain (67% of average). I guess Wanaka was just far enough north to capture some of the precip associated with those 3 main low pressure systems as they developed/passed over the South Island, and by the time the lows moved east of NZ, Queenstown was too sheltered from the resulting southeasterly flow.

Then there's Oamaru which until yesterday had recorded approx. the same amount of rain for July as Milford Sound - a rarity. Oamaru ended up with 224 mm for the month (553% of normal for July, and roughly half of its average annual rainfall).

mtd_rain_anom.png
 

sbm

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Aug 2, 2010
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Sydney
huckanddyno.wordpress.com
Rain overnight at Porters leaving it a bit crusty (piste was perfect for the school racers), was just starting to soften in the sun, cloud has moved in, light snow started and now coming down more heavily with bigger flakes.
 
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pedub

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Jul 26, 2015
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Did TC avoid rain yesterday? I'm skeptical
Rain hit Ohau but got covered with a decent layer of soft stuff by late morning. Ended up being a nice day although a little heavy. It was my 4th day ever there, still finding new fun lines and drops... It's really good for a 1 lift hill.

In wanaka now and if we can fast forward to the next storm that would be great...
 
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craighelo

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Sep 26, 2012
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Tarras
Did TC avoid rain yesterday? I'm skeptical
Rain hit Ohau but got covered with a decent layer of soft stuff by late morning. Ended up being a nice day although a little heavy. It was my 4th day ever there, still finding new fun lines and drops... It's really good for a 1 lift hill.

In wanaka now and if we can fast forward to the next storm that would be great...
Looked pretty good on Facebook with yesterdays fresh snow
20479544_10154934121265885_3275447142338674733_n.jpg

20479638_10154934121160885_3378903902897228360_n.jpg
 

windy

Hard Yards
Apr 17, 2016
70
210
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Upper Flagstone
Was up at Mt Hutt today. It snowed for half an hour in the morning and put a nice dusting on everything which made the groomers real nice. There was also some fun pockets of soft snow off trail in between the ice patches. The clouds came in super thick around lunch and we almost went home but then it cleared up for the last couple of hours.

Hutt has really good coverage but it would be nice to have the snow soften up off trail. A top up would be even better.
 
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pedub

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Jul 26, 2015
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Looks good but I bet not quite so amazing in reality...the report says dust on crust. We'll see when I get up to Cheeseman tomorrow.

That's what I wondered about the recent TC pics too
Was crusty at Cardona today, I suspect rain hit most places
 

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
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Melbourne
So it looks like most Canterbury resorts are set with a decent base that will see them out for a long season, Mt Hutt especially with a 270cm base! But the Southern Lakes need some more totals to keep them chugging along.

Early next week the temps look very mild.
 
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pedub

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Jul 26, 2015
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First season in a while early August has been a bit... average??
Still lots of cover in southern lakes though, as good as any other year. Just not much fresh snow.
 

Red_switch

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2006
26,079
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Dunedin, NZ
First season in a while early August has been a bit... average??
Still lots of cover in southern lakes though, as good as any other year. Just not much fresh snow.
According to the heliski guides it's the BEST SEASON EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'd say it's tracking at or slightly below average. Cover is good, really good in the East (that's just not really where the lifts are), but fresh needed.
 

Call_me_Ishmael

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Nov 19, 2011
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I just got back
Yes ,had a decent day under the rotors but Cardrona was just mad with punters and had wind closure the day I was there and Coronet was "Coronet powder" and even more jam-packed with sad sacks
Remarks hasn't opened Homeward Bound all season but was okay after the 5cm last Monday
TC was decent but every inch of the saddle tracked out as expected
Heading back in a month or so with the family after umming and ahhing about whether or not I'd do Thredbo
I may have ummed when I should have ahhhed by the looks of the long range forecast
 
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pedub

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Jul 26, 2015
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Have done some afternoons at Cardrona and TC this week.
Cardrona not good at all, firm on and off trail and busy, also on the receiving end of some poor customer service but I won't go into that.
TC surprisingly OK today. Still able to hike for some fun lines in soft snow, minimal queues, and plenty of room on trail. However, North facing slopes very crusty after the sun went down and cover is not good in Sundance and Matukituki.
Ohau was the pick of the trip!
 

ajmit3

Hard Yards
Jul 8, 2007
179
37
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35
melbourne
Tuesday Wednesday looks ordinary for me in Christchurch... any thoughts were to go ? Was thinking Porters and Cragieburn or Broken River ? Too crappy for touring I think . Enys, Cloudsley and Torlesse look interesting...
 

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,268
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Melbourne
Tuesday looks very wet at this stage, fingers crossed the freezing level drops or some resorts could be looking at 20mm of rain
 

Red_switch

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2006
26,079
12,278
1,063
Dunedin, NZ
Coupla snaps from today. Porters and Big Mama from the road:

IMG_20170802_103524.jpg


Hiked up the Bealey Valley track at Arthur's Pass and got a great view of Temple Basin from the other side :

IMG_20170802_141428.jpg
Relatively high snowlune at AP for the time of year.
 

Call_me_Ishmael

One of Us
Nov 19, 2011
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Dobson
If it's snowing there's zero visibility
If it isn't there's a massive crust that makes anything off piste blurdy hard work
Not sure why but its been my experience over the past 20 years
 

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,268
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Melbourne
I reckon the Tasman seesaw is definitely a thing.

Dumping hugely in Aus, rain in NZ. Then it will swing back, and be 15 degrees in Thredbo village and snowing down to the valley floors in NZ.
Yep it always seems as if one country is winning, the other is getting nothing, and vice versa
 
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Tropical

One of Us
Apr 28, 2000
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Brisbane
What are your thoughts on the forecast for this weekend 12-14 August and then again on 17 August for the southern lakes? I am heading to Queenstown for my bucks party on Saturday and the staying for the week. :) Mountainwatch and the Frog have OK forecasts but I am interested in the collective wisdom of this forum.

We are considering a mix of Remarkables, Coronet Peak, Treble Cone and Remarkables Backcountry (Wye Creek) with Aspiring Guides.
 

Froff Life

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 2, 2014
8,268
5,206
563
Melbourne
What are your thoughts on the forecast for this weekend 12-14 August and then again on 17 August for the southern lakes? I am heading to Queenstown for my bucks party on Saturday and the staying for the week. :) Mountainwatch and the Frog have OK forecasts but I am interested in the collective wisdom of this forum.

We are considering a mix of Remarkables, Coronet Peak, Treble Cone and Remarkables Backcountry (Wye Creek) with Aspiring Guides.
I'm certainly no expert, but It looks like Saturday will be a very windy and wet/sleety day, but you're arriving then so I assume you won't be skiing? Sunday freezing levels will lower and it won't be as windy. Early next week is still pretty variable at this stage... There looks like there could decent falls in the North Island as a big low churns around, but it's too early to tell if it will track over the South Island yet. Enjoy your week and let us know the conditions you experience :)
 

Zimboo

A Local
Aug 28, 2014
6,831
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What are your thoughts on the forecast for this weekend 12-14 August and then again on 17 August for the southern lakes? I am heading to Queenstown for my bucks party on Saturday and the staying for the week. :) Mountainwatch and the Frog have OK forecasts but I am interested in the collective wisdom of this forum.

We are considering a mix of Remarkables, Coronet Peak, Treble Cone and Remarkables Backcountry (Wye Creek) with Aspiring Guides.
http://www.metservice.com/skifields/the-remarkables
 
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Call_me_Ishmael

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Nov 19, 2011
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So getting through today I see a much nicer picture for the rest of August for the Southern Lakes which is great news for competitors in the Winter games
I think there could be 3 decent snow bearing classic southerly systems before the end of August( IMO) with pretty cold temps in between
The yin and yang of Oz vs NZ snow!
3 in a row over the next forthight hopefully

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