NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Yeah long range has been suggesting a major system the weekend of the 17th/18th for a bit now, but you know how it goes in NZ...
     
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  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Minus 5 at my place this morning, the guns at Coronet have been rocking all night. I look straight at them out my front window :)
     
  3. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Coronet yesterday morning
    [​IMG]
     
  4. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    Mt Hutt got a bit. Maybe 30-40cm

    [​IMG]

    I see a follow up system coming this weekend:

    [​IMG]
     
    #54 col, Jun 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  5. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Mt Hutt is looking in pretty good shape for opening day.
     
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  6. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    GFS back on board for the weekend
     
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  7. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    if this is your view from your window, you're a b*stard...
     
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  8. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    GFS 84 hours through 240 hours. Wow. Still a while to run but would be a classic season starter. (Sorry for the chart spam got a bit excited :))
    1st System (84 Hours)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    2nd System (138 Hours)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    3rd System (174 Hours)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    For all of next week... the EC solution.
    Monday and Tuesday should bring snow to higher peaks in the Far South of the country. Beginning on Tuesday afternoon, a large trough moves in and brings heavy snow to the higher parts of South Island.
    Tuesday night, thru to Thursday, the massive cold front moves in, as you can see below.


    As you can see, the rain-snow lines are over the tip of North Island. So this system, if it occurs, will be very cold.


    The snow accum on EC currently is 10-60cm, depending on height and latitude for South Island.
    North Island shows 5cm.

    So in summary, it will be a very cold system, though there will be quite a bit of prefrontal. But it is subject to change, as recent events have shown.
     
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  10. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Season starter for sure. Yew!
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep 14JUN looks V large IMO.
     
  12. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    This weekend doesn't look half bad either, a decent opener.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    NZ reaping the rewards of an Aus Block for at least the next 10 days.
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Looks like a slight downgrade on todays run IMO. Still a while out though.
     
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  15. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    Next week going to be interesting.. I'm liking the Accumulation on Windy and of course inputs from all the crew.. Mt Hutt looking Epic.. Yeeoww..
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    Charts have the storm +1 day ahead now.....Monday/Tuesday next week looking good for a decent amount of snow.

    My guess is 20-40cm for Queenstown / Wanaka resorts and 10-20cm for Mt. Hutt.
     
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  17. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    GFS is also hinting at something later next week, would be good to build a solid base before July hopefully.
     
  18. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Sounds about right! Looks like the North Island may miss out at this stage.
     
  19. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    queenstown /wanaka should get 5-10cm tonight before the bigger storm on Tuesday morning.

    Tuesday storm looks good for temple basin
     
  20. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Looks like an upgrade for next week's storm on this mornings model run.
     
  21. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Tuesday looks delicious for all resorts on both islands, lets hope it comes off
     
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  22. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    When it comes to looking @ satellite images I found Zoom Earth to be interesting to look at with approaching fronts. It has recent time snaps Am & a Pm update. I would say this (image below) is a good example of cold dry air approaching SI NZ with the speckled cloud. I would however appreciate if anyone here is willing to explain briefly, not to technically what they see in this image.. ie the forecast is for light snow on the tops but mostly rain. One thing I did notice is Zoom Earth looks quiet different when focused further out to images on other satellite images ie Bom Aus Infra Red for the same time period (Images below).






    I'm either guessing it's because the infra red is limited in what it picks up compared to a picture image.. The whole system over Tasmania looks completely different for a relatively same time period.. Which is more worthy?

    Thanks to any further replies. I'll be following this stuff as much as I can to further my knowledge..

    Cheers
     
  23. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    The first precip band is approaching on the radar.[​IMG]
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    For a start, Terra (EOS) appears to be the top two images which are different to Himarwari-8, the bottom render. You'll have different instrumentation/resolution on each sat. MODIS & CERES are the key 'bio-sphere' weather instruments onboard Terra, you can read more about it here.

    Without hijacking the thread too much these appear to be different timestamped images with Himawari looking later than MODIS imagery, perhaps a few hours?
    The 'speckled cloud' you refer to probably isn't the speckled cloud we have grown to love as snow enthusiasts as it appears much more scattered and probably a form of benign, decayed cumulus/stratocumulus, rather than cumulonimbus or developed cumulus that proceeds a frontal system - The latter often appears brighter on an infrared swath due to it's maturing state in the upper atmosphere, from what I understand.

    ...anyway the 12-14th is still looking like a great system IMO. :)
     
    #74 POW_hungry, Jun 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2017
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  25. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    Cheers POW, Just the response I was looking for and I'm kinda hearin ya. So to digress. Weather forecaster are looking at a number of factors and potential heights of pressure with Wind + associated Ocean/Land Temp ie. One thing that may help me understand this is - Why direction of certain frontal systems produces more snow in one region than another.. Especially when most systems in NZ hit a high altitude directly off the ocean (West Coast/ Fiordland) before they go inland..
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Aspect/Shadowing, Moisture Source and Elevation will be the determining snow-depth factors in any resort or alpine environment. Which resort/mountain do you have the most interest in?
     
  27. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Snow Accumulation through to 120 hours.[​IMG]
    Looking like a great system for the South Island.
     
    #77 Roarkie, Jun 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2017
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  28. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    Still looking good for Tuesday. Queenstown/Wanaka will do best out of it but the whole sth Island should be white by Wednesday.
     
  29. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHLAND, STEWART ISLAND, CLUTHA, DUNEDIN,SOUTHERN LAKES, CENTRAL OTAGO, CANTERBURY HIGH COUNTRY, WESTLAND,BULLER, NELSON, MARLBOROUGH, WELLINGTON, KAPITI HOROWHENUA, WAIRARAPA,HAWKES BAY, MANAWATU ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0958hrs 12-Jun-2017

    HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND AND NORTHWEST GALES FOR THE CANTERBURY HIGH COUNTRY



    A front moves slowly northwards over the South Island today and Tuesday morning, bringing a period of heavy northwesterly rain to western areas with thunderstorms. The heaviest rain is expected about Fiordland and the Westland ranges south of Otira, and a WARNING remains in force for these areas. A second front moving up the South Island on Tuesday is expected to bring another period of heavy rain to Fiordland during the morning.

    This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall amounts will approach short duration warning levels (eg. 60mm in 9 hours or 85mm in 18 hours) in the following areas...

    THE HEADWATERS OF THE OTAGO LAKES AND RIVERS: Until this evening.

    THE HEADWATERS OF THE CANTERBURY LAKES AND RIVERS: From late this morning to the early hours of Tuesday.

    THE RANGES OF WESTLAND NORTH OF OTIRA AND BULLER: From this evening to Tuesday morning.

    TARARUA RANGE: From Tuesday morning to late Tuesday afternoon.

    In addition, strong to gale force northwest winds are expected ahead of the fronts today and during Tuesday. Strong to gale force southwesterlies follow the second front on Tuesday.

    This WATCH is also for the possibility of severe northwest gales in the following area...

    CANTERBURY HIGH COUNTRY: From this afternoon to early Tuesday morning, then again from about midday Tuesday to Tuesday evening.

    WELLINGTON, WAIRARAPA(including the TARARUA DISTRICT) and HAWKES BAY: From this evening to early Tuesday morning, then again from Tuesday afternoon to early Wednesday morning.

    MARLBOROUGH: From Tuesday afternoon to early Wednesday morning.

    This WATCH is also for the possibility of severe southwest gales in the following area...

    SOUTHLAND (including the STEWART ISLAND), CLUTHA and DUNEDIN: From Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.

    BANKS PENINSULA: From late Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.

    NELSON west of RIWAKA: From Tuesday evening to the early hours of Wednesday.

    Note, brief heavy snow is likely for inland areas of Southland and Otago south of Cromwell above 500 metres from about midday Tuesday to early hours of Wednesday.

    People in these areas are advised to remain up to date with the latest forecasts in case parts of this WATCH are upgraded to a full WARNING or further areas are added.

    This Watch will be reviewed by 9:30pm 12th June

    ROAD SNOWFALL WARNINGS
    Lewis Pass (SH7)
    Issued at: 11:36am Monday 12 Jun 2017
    Valid until: 10:00pm Monday 12 Jun 2017

    Snow is expected to lower to about 800 metres during Tuesday evening. Between 7pm Tuesday to 1am Wednesday, 3 to 5cm of snow may settle about the top of the road.

    Lindis Pass (SH8)
    Issued at: 11:36am Monday 12 Jun 2017
    Valid until: 10:00pm Monday 12 Jun 2017

    Snow is expected to lower to about 600 metres during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Between midday Tuesday to midnight Tuesday, 4 to 8cm of snow may settle about the top of the road with lesser amounts to 600 metres.

    Milford Road (SH94)
    Issued at: 11:36am Monday 12 Jun 2017
    Valid until: 10:00pm Monday 12 Jun 2017

    Snow is expected to lower to about 500 metres Tuesday afternoon and evening. Between midday Tuesday to midnight Tuesday, 15 to 20cm of snow may settle about the top of the road, but lesser amounts to 500 metres.
     
  30. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Fronts look nice this week, but I'm interested & concerned about the big Tasman low forecast next weekend.
     
  31. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    Looks good for Mt Hutt on 22nd...+20cm .... could be some rain before it hits
     
  32. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Snow is really starting to come in now on the Coronet Peak webcams.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Just saw this! Looks like a very dark day on the CP & Remarks.
     
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  34. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    Hey Pow, Thanks for the reply mate. Mainly Remarks for me. To be honest, not making it to complicated seems to be the key. This forum is great and all the weather charts & reports we have access to now are great. Like anything I guess the best knowledge now is getting out there and doing it. Rather than dissecting weather charts I should probably be dissecting my fitness levels more than anything, heee.. Cheers
     
    #84 Baggage, Jun 13, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
  35. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    A dusting on the Broken River cam, enough to cover the deck and a few more tussocks.

    Epic sea-of-clouds view on the Hutt cams, but no new snow it looks like.
     
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  36. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Regarding the possible Tasman Low next week.

    Recent model runs have shown the center of the Low tracking more North than in previous runs, especially EC. The recent runs have also downgraded the intensity of the low, and shortened the duration that the Low stalls in the Tasman Sea. EC has also positioned a blocking high more west over the South Island, which helps drive the Low northwards. So this looks like generally good news IMO.

    00Z June 12 Run
    [​IMG]

    00Z June 13
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    ACCESS-G is also indicating a Southerly influence next week, could be interesting one to keep an eye on.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Next system to keep an eye on IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  39. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    A North Island special
     
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  40. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    GFS run this morning has the North Island coping some decent weather from Monday - Thursday
     
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  41. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Another 10-15cm early next week for the Southern Lakes possibly?
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  42. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    Any thoughts on Sun/Mon little clipper.. Might go test the legs out at Remarks.. Early groom session??
     
  43. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Fast moving system, maybe 5-15cm for the Southern Lakes overnight.
     
  44. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Next week on EC, definitely one to keep an eye on.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    And looks like another blast around the 27th...should be looking very wintery
     
  46. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Love it! That should set a great base moving into July
     
  47. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    end of month could be good.
     
  48. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Upgrade :)
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Snow accumulation for the next 10 days, Canterbury should do well if the models hold.[​IMG]
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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