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Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.
Metservice have today posited a possible overrunning snow event for the lower South Island later next week as the moist northeasterlies move in over colder southerlies. It doesn't happen very often and the models generally miss it so worth keeping an eye on what happens.
Looks like some rain followed by snow on Thursday for Mt Hutt.
Yep depending on freezing level and how long the system hangs around, Mt Hutt could get 30cms or more.
Upgrade in accumulation on the latest EC run, and more widespread heavy snow (darker shading).
Treble Cone going to get some according to that...
Looks like its going to hit a bit further south which is good. Mt Hutt should do well out of it if it comes off.
Yeah wow I'd say Hutt looking at 30-40cms now for Friday
Seems to be some agreement now with all the models for some decent cold and snow over the next week for Southern Lakes
Probably a season set up week if it comes off
Haha the forecasts have gone freaking mental for Mt Cook
Yeah potential for a reasonable advection event.
As a bonus its not going to be so windy so snow may stay on the mountain for once. Mt Hutt is forecast to get 32cm on Thursday.
Looks pretty cold for the next few days. The next 7-10 days could be the season starter depending on how the models run out in the next few days.
10-25cm for the Southern Lakes and 30-45cm for Canterbury for the Thursday/Friday system IMO.
What an interesting weather system. Been watching this closely. Forecast models are all over the place on this one. Lets hope that Low drops south and sits a bit. Nice SINZ S/SE stream sucking up the moisture.. Ohau looks the winner (shame they're not open till July)..
Yeah. Mountainwatch is being cautious about the temps, suggesting as much rain as snow for Canturbury, with Ohau & Dobson being the sweet spot for temps & moisture.
Metservice & CWU still seems to be calling for mostly snow at resort level.
The temps need to drop for Mt Hutt to avoid some r**n first before the snow hits. The system also looks like it has moved to favour the more southerly resorts, especially TC.
EC has the low tracking more East giving the lower South Island little snow.
GFS even more East.
Metservice giving us a little more.
EC Snow Accumulation for the next 4 days.
However, this system is pretty unpredictable so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Hutt cams are iced over, BR seems to be down so the Porters cam seems to be the best for keeping an eye on it.
Looking damp. No snow yet...
Its snowing now at Hutt but a downgrade from yesterday. The moisture has pushed out to sea a bit. Mt Hutt will probably get 10-20cm.
Freezing level could be an issue for the Canterbury resorts tomorrow, r**n below 1800m possible
Broken River has postponed their (optimistic) opening date to 1st July. Their webcam is back up and showing a dusting.
Nothing on the Porters cam, still looks damp and misty. Looking like a bit of a damp squib so far...
The next 10 days are looking pretty cold, and the next week should set up the season IMO (for the Southern Lakes at least).
The 5400 500-1000 Thickness Line stays fairly well above the Lower South Island. The next week looks solid with snowfalls this weekend and early next week, which looks like 15-30cm in total for the Southern Lakes. Will be keeping a close eye on the models for this date range.
Beginning of July looks delicious, great start to the month. Cold and lots of precipitation on the models from the 1st - 6th.
I would expect 15-30cm across most of the South Island between Saturday to Thursday, from the EC solution. The biggest accumulations look closer to the divide so I would except Treble Cone for example to do well. The next week also looks fairly cold so the snow guns should be going full tilt.
EDIT: I am also currently a little concerned about next weekend as EC has a Tasman Low progged ATM and the temps may be a bit touch and go.
And for comparison the GFS accumulated snowfall.
Things are still looking good for 20-30cm over the next few days for the Southern Lakes, starting tonight. There is a fair bit of divergence in the models for later next week though, in regards to how the possible Tasman Low works out.
Not so sure tbh. Warm in the hills currently too.
Yeah, models have backed right off in the last few runs
We should still get 5-15cm maybe, from the last EC run.
I wouldn't get too caught up in specifics from the models beyond 72 hours.
Still a few days away, so a lot can change, but next weekend looks promising if it comes off
Too far out but Mt. Hutt could get a nice amount of snow out of that one.
Too far out, yes, but at this stage it is preceded by a potentially unkind NW.
hope most of the rain rolls up to the north island and then as it rolls over the top of the south island mt Hutt gets smashed with 3 days of heavy snow 60cm-100cm total
Haha that would be amazing!!
Mt Hutt definitely looking the best spot on the South Island right now. Some good looking fresh turns offpiste visible on the cams.
I reckon the best turns to be had in the South Island right now are in central/east Otago:
TERRA/MODIS yesterday (intense magenta is snow)
The Southern Lakes might do alright over the next 24 hours IMO.
Another fizzer overnight for Queenstown. We just can't get any moisture over the Alps at the moment.
The models are fighting next weekend at the moment. If it comes good then the Canterbury resorts could get up to half a meter! Regardless there will be snow, it just depends on how much at this stage
Maybe for the best, temps didn't really drop as expected and I think there was some light rain on the lower slopes.
EC 216 Hours out.
This weekend has fizzed out too
This weekend looks like a bit of a washout on EC, plenty of moisture and it's pretty warm. Especially for the Southern Lakes. 72 Hour Rain Accumulation:
Met Office predicting Friday/Saturday big snow days in Southern Lakes- Cardies 23+20cms? TC 40+ ??
Depends on the freezing level, it looks to be around 1,700m. Which would mean snow high up but rain lower
On the upper slopes definitely, but temps will be touch and go for lower elevations IMO, for example Coronet Peak and Lower Cardrona etc.
EDIT: Keep in mind those numbers are computer generated, whereas the human produced forecasts are only calling for scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday.
And keep in mind, that many of the crucial processes, particularly the rain/snow threshold in these kinds of events, is poorly resolved (if at all) by the global model products. The metservice put a lot more into their specific forecasts.
And with that in mind, the Metservice are calling for snow down to 1200 metres at times, so we could see majority snow and less rain.
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NELSON, FIORDLAND, CANTERBURY HIGH COUNTRY,SOUTHERN LAKES ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2026hrs 29-Jun-2017
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
A front associated with a low over the Tasman Sea moves onto the west of the South Island on Friday. The front is expected to become slow moving about central and northern Westland during Satuday. This front is preceded by heavy northerly rain which is forecast to affect northern and western areas of the South Island.
The heaviest rain is expected about Westland and Buller, and a HEAVY RAIN WARNING is in force for these regions.
This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria in the following areas...
FIORDLAND FROM MILFORD SOUND NORTHWARDS, ALSO THE OTAGO HEADWATERS: During Friday.
HEADWATERS OF THE CANTERBURY RIVERS AND LAKES: From late Friday morning until Saturday morning.
NELSON: During Saturday. Note, it is probable that a HEAVY RAIN WARNING will be issued for this area on Friday morning.
People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts in the coming days as parts of this WATCH may be upgraded to a WARNING and additional areas will likely be placed on WATCH.
This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Friday 30th June 2017