NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,008
    Likes Received:
    7,353
  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    1,702
    Likes Received:
    616
    Metservice have today posited a possible overrunning snow event for the lower South Island later next week as the moist northeasterlies move in over colder southerlies. It doesn't happen very often and the models generally miss it so worth keeping an eye on what happens.
     
  3. col

    col Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    246
    Looks like some rain followed by snow on Thursday for Mt Hutt.

    [​IMG]
     
    #103 col, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
  4. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Yep depending on freezing level and how long the system hangs around, Mt Hutt could get 30cms or more.
     
    soza likes this.
  5. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    Upgrade in accumulation on the latest EC run, and more widespread heavy snow (darker shading).
    [​IMG]
     
    Froff Life and sbm like this.
  6. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    1,702
    Likes Received:
    616
    Treble Cone going to get some according to that...
     
  7. col

    col Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    246
    Looks like its going to hit a bit further south which is good. Mt Hutt should do well out of it if it comes off.

    [​IMG]
     
    Roarkie likes this.
  8. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Yeah wow I'd say Hutt looking at 30-40cms now for Friday
     
  9. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2011
    Messages:
    780
    Likes Received:
    597
    Seems to be some agreement now with all the models for some decent cold and snow over the next week for Southern Lakes
    Probably a season set up week if it comes off
     
    Froff Life likes this.
  10. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Haha the forecasts have gone freaking mental for Mt Cook LOL
     
    soza likes this.
  11. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    16,508
    Likes Received:
    3,516
    Yeah potential for a reasonable advection event.
     
  12. col

    col Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    246
    As a bonus its not going to be so windy so snow may stay on the mountain for once. Mt Hutt is forecast to get 32cm on Thursday.
     
  13. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    Looks pretty cold for the next few days. The next 7-10 days could be the season starter depending on how the models run out in the next few days.
    [​IMG]
    10-25cm for the Southern Lakes and 30-45cm for Canterbury for the Thursday/Friday system IMO.
     
    #113 Roarkie, Jun 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
  14. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2015
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    52
    What an interesting weather system. Been watching this closely. Forecast models are all over the place on this one. Lets hope that Low drops south and sits a bit. Nice SINZ S/SE stream sucking up the moisture.. Ohau looks the winner (shame they're not open till July)..
     
  15. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,808
    Likes Received:
    3,040
    Yeah. Mountainwatch is being cautious about the temps, suggesting as much rain as snow for Canturbury, with Ohau & Dobson being the sweet spot for temps & moisture.

    Metservice & CWU still seems to be calling for mostly snow at resort level.
     
  16. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    The temps need to drop for Mt Hutt to avoid some r**n first before the snow hits. The system also looks like it has moved to favour the more southerly resorts, especially TC.
     
  17. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    EC has the low tracking more East giving the lower South Island little snow.
    [​IMG]
    GFS even more East.
    [​IMG]
    Metservice giving us a little more.
    [​IMG]
    EC Snow Accumulation for the next 4 days.
    [​IMG]

    However, this system is pretty unpredictable so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
     
    #117 Roarkie, Jun 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2017
    Froff Life likes this.
  18. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,808
    Likes Received:
    3,040
    Hutt cams are iced over, BR seems to be down so the Porters cam seems to be the best for keeping an eye on it.

    Looking damp. No snow yet...
     
  19. col

    col Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    246
    Its snowing now at Hutt but a downgrade from yesterday. The moisture has pushed out to sea a bit. Mt Hutt will probably get 10-20cm.
     
  20. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Freezing level could be an issue for the Canterbury resorts tomorrow, r**n below 1800m possible
     
  21. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,808
    Likes Received:
    3,040
    Broken River has postponed their (optimistic) opening date to 1st July. Their webcam is back up and showing a dusting.

    Nothing on the Porters cam, still looks damp and misty. Looking like a bit of a damp squib so far...
     
  22. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    The next 10 days are looking pretty cold, and the next week should set up the season IMO (for the Southern Lakes at least).
    The 5400 500-1000 Thickness Line stays fairly well above the Lower South Island. The next week looks solid with snowfalls this weekend and early next week, which looks like 15-30cm in total for the Southern Lakes. Will be keeping a close eye on the models for this date range.
     
    #122 Roarkie, Jun 22, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2017
    Froff Life and Dumph like this.
  23. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Beginning of July looks delicious, great start to the month. Cold and lots of precipitation on the models from the 1st - 6th.
     
  24. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    I would expect 15-30cm across most of the South Island between Saturday to Thursday, from the EC solution. The biggest accumulations look closer to the divide so I would except Treble Cone for example to do well. The next week also looks fairly cold so the snow guns should be going full tilt.
    [​IMG]
    EDIT: I am also currently a little concerned about next weekend as EC has a Tasman Low progged ATM and the temps may be a bit touch and go.
     
    #124 Roarkie, Jun 23, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2017
    Froff Life likes this.
  25. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    And for comparison the GFS accumulated snowfall.
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    Things are still looking good for 20-30cm over the next few days for the Southern Lakes, starting tonight. There is a fair bit of divergence in the models for later next week though, in regards to how the possible Tasman Low works out.
     
    Froff Life likes this.
  27. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    16,508
    Likes Received:
    3,516
    Not so sure tbh. Warm in the hills currently too.
     
  28. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    Yeah, models have backed right off in the last few runs :(
    We should still get 5-15cm maybe, from the last EC run.
     
    #128 Roarkie, Jun 25, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2017
  29. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    16,508
    Likes Received:
    3,516
    I wouldn't get too caught up in specifics from the models beyond 72 hours.
     
    Centago, luke1234 and Roarkie like this.
  30. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Still a few days away, so a lot can change, but next weekend looks promising if it comes off
     
  31. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
  32. col

    col Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    246
    Too far out but Mt. Hutt could get a nice amount of snow out of that one.
     
  33. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    16,508
    Likes Received:
    3,516
    Too far out, yes, but at this stage it is preceded by a potentially unkind NW.
     
  34. col

    col Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    246
    hope most of the rain rolls up to the north island and then as it rolls over the top of the south island mt Hutt gets smashed with 3 days of heavy snow 60cm-100cm total
     
    Froff Life likes this.
  35. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Haha that would be amazing!!
     
  36. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2010
    Messages:
    2,808
    Likes Received:
    3,040
    Mt Hutt definitely looking the best spot on the South Island right now. Some good looking fresh turns offpiste visible on the cams.
     
    soza likes this.
  37. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    16,508
    Likes Received:
    3,516
    I reckon the best turns to be had in the South Island right now are in central/east Otago:
    [​IMG]
    TERRA/MODIS yesterday (intense magenta is snow)
     
    Roarkie likes this.
  38. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    The Southern Lakes might do alright over the next 24 hours IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    sbm likes this.
  39. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    1,702
    Likes Received:
    616
    Another fizzer overnight for Queenstown. We just can't get any moisture over the Alps at the moment.
     
  40. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    The models are fighting next weekend at the moment. If it comes good then the Canterbury resorts could get up to half a meter! Regardless there will be snow, it just depends on how much at this stage
     
  41. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    Maybe for the best, temps didn't really drop as expected and I think there was some light rain on the lower slopes.
     
  42. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    EC 216 Hours out.[​IMG]
     
  43. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    This weekend has fizzed out too
     
  44. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    This weekend looks like a bit of a washout on EC, plenty of moisture and it's pretty warm. Especially for the Southern Lakes. 72 Hour Rain Accumulation:
    [​IMG]
     
  45. Dumph

    Dumph Active Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    128
    Likes Received:
    45
    Met Office predicting Friday/Saturday big snow days in Southern Lakes- Cardies 23+20cms? TC 40+ ??
     
  46. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,541
    Likes Received:
    1,032
    Depends on the freezing level, it looks to be around 1,700m. Which would mean snow high up but rain lower
     
  47. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    On the upper slopes definitely, but temps will be touch and go for lower elevations IMO, for example Coronet Peak and Lower Cardrona etc.
    EDIT: Keep in mind those numbers are computer generated, whereas the human produced forecasts are only calling for scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday.
     
  48. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2006
    Messages:
    16,508
    Likes Received:
    3,516
    And keep in mind, that many of the crucial processes, particularly the rain/snow threshold in these kinds of events, is poorly resolved (if at all) by the global model products. The metservice put a lot more into their specific forecasts.
     
    Centago, Roarkie and Froff Life like this.
  49. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    And with that in mind, the Metservice are calling for snow down to 1200 metres at times, so we could see majority snow and less rain.
     
    Dumph and Froff Life like this.
  50. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Likes Received:
    213
    SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NELSON, FIORDLAND, CANTERBURY HIGH COUNTRY,SOUTHERN LAKES ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2026hrs 29-Jun-2017

    HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

    A front associated with a low over the Tasman Sea moves onto the west of the South Island on Friday. The front is expected to become slow moving about central and northern Westland during Satuday. This front is preceded by heavy northerly rain which is forecast to affect northern and western areas of the South Island.

    The heaviest rain is expected about Westland and Buller, and a HEAVY RAIN WARNING is in force for these regions.

    This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria in the following areas...

    FIORDLAND FROM MILFORD SOUND NORTHWARDS, ALSO THE OTAGO HEADWATERS: During Friday.

    HEADWATERS OF THE CANTERBURY RIVERS AND LAKES: From late Friday morning until Saturday morning.

    NELSON: During Saturday. Note, it is probable that a HEAVY RAIN WARNING will be issued for this area on Friday morning.

    People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts in the coming days as parts of this WATCH may be upgraded to a WARNING and additional areas will likely be placed on WATCH.

    This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Friday 30th June 2017
    [​IMG]