NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Anyone got an idea of freezing levels for this weekend? Hopefully some of the higher resorts on the south island can escape this rain
     
  2. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Right now I reckon it's about 1500 m.
     
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  3. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Yeah Looks like rain on cam at the top of the Curvey chair so maybe even higher freeze than that
     
  4. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Bit warmer over there, I use snowfarm as a bit of a reference for the Clutha in general, snowing there, and snow is still looking fairly dry. Although the SHPG aws feed is down which is a bummer. Temp is -1.3 at Whare Kea, with air close to saturation, so I used a lapse rate of 0.6 degC/100 m, and a bit of suppression, to get to 1500 m. It'd be nice if balloon soundings were done in Wanaka.
     
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  5. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Looks like pukage on the cans from top to bottom at Coronet Peak ATM, Metservice got it pretty spot on.
     
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  6. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Coronet is all lit up for night skiing, looks way better up there.
     
  7. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Cardrona reported 12 cm on their Facebook page, with smaller amounts lower down. But it looks like we've down pretty well out of this system so far and dodged the rain.
     
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  8. Toto Warmlet

    Toto Warmlet Dedicated Member

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    Looks like an interesting weekend for Ruapehu.
    The old man most always ends up wearing it well.
     
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  9. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    The Southern Lakes should see some more snowfall tomorrow, from about noon and into the evening. Metservice calling for snow levels to be similar to today, around 1100m-1200m, moving lower at times.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG] Snowing at Tekapo.
     
    #160 ScottGN, Jul 1, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2017
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  11. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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  12. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Half a foot and counting at Hutt.
     
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  13. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    The Tekapo Hot Springs!Nice
    Is the tube slope operating?
     
  14. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    metservice midnight Monday
     
  15. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Lovely Ohau opened today. Been chucking it down there all day.
     
  16. Roarkie

    Roarkie Active Member

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    Metservice calling snow down to 500m on Sunday night/Monday morning!
     
  17. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    NZTA reporting SH8 Twizel to Fairlie is closed due to snow.
     
  18. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Oh I love an SH8 Closure- nearly as much as a Desert Road closure
     
  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Radio NZ reports about 30 vehicles have had to be towed out of snow to Tekapo village.
     
  20. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    I see Cardrona is claiming 23 cms in the last 24 hours.
     
  21. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    Ohau FB saying 47cm and counting
     
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  22. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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  23. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Wrong goggles. LOL
     
  24. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Love it all!
     
  25. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    I hope I'm proved wrong but sadly it looks like the bulk of the moisture tonight is going to fall in the east - Clutha, Catlins and Dunedin.
     
  26. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Interesting system coming through overnight. Will be a bit of an all-or-nothing scenario, and yeah, limited to coastal/south Otago. I'll work from home and position myself to take advantage of anything decent that transpires. Still very mild here currently.
     
  27. Draizuh

    Draizuh Dedicated Member

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    Pissing down in kingston right now! Dont know if its cold, but the mid dome weather station says -2 which is about 1500msl so it should be snowing to atleast 1200m, maybe lower..
     
  28. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Mostly starry skies overnight around Queenstown though Draizuh with maybe the odd light shower passing through. QLDC is not reporting any snow on roads across the network just black ice in Cardrona and Fernhill.
     
  29. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Seems like the ski areas still picked up a few cm.
     
  30. Draizuh

    Draizuh Dedicated Member

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    We had a big freeze, about 2-3mm of solid ice on my truck this morning, deck was a skating rink and a dusting of snow. @Centago messaged me and said it was snowing at my place at around midday! was all gone by the time i got home :(
     
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  31. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Metservice analysis is saying that Milford Sound had its driest March-June quarter since they started keeping records there in 1929 with only 47% of normal rainfall. Aoraki-Mt Cook had its third driest quarter since 1928. It's been really dry in the south.
     
  32. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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  33. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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  34. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Treble Cone opening today, reporting a 6cm depth at the base of the resort
     
  35. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Metservice has issued a Severe Weather Outlook for 2 systems over the next 5 days or so.
    Currently a low probability for heavy snow along the Alps down to 400m on Saturday and a moderate probability for heavy snow across the south down to 200m on Tuesday 11th.
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Need it to be a little higher for Canterbury please :D
     
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  37. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Yeap, have had my eye on this system for Tuesday for a few days now, air is gonna be cold for sure, models are a bit all over the show as far as instability and moisture go.
     
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  38. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Definitely has been coming and going a bit
    Colder wetter warmer dryer
     
  39. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    GFS is back on board in the latest run. AXS-G looks great.
     
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  40. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    Saturday morning looking good for my local mountains Ohau & Roundhill. Could be 20-30cm in it.
     
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  41. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Monday - Thursday looks great on the GFS for the Southern Lakes and Wanaka regions.
     
  42. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, for the Southern Lakes it'd be good if things swung a bit more to the S. Tuesday night could see the upper Maniototo get absolutely stonkered.
     
  43. col

    col Well-Known Member

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    I hope Tuesday storm stays exactly where it is.....looks like a direct hit on Dobson.
     
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  44. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Updated Severe Weather Outlook.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Canterbury Snow and Weather watch have put this up for next week
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Lol. Ofcourse they have.
     
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  47. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Wednesday and Thursday next week look pretty good for Ruapehu too.
     
  48. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    MetService New Zealand
    · 33 mins · [​IMG]
    SOUTHERLY OUTBREAK BRINGS SEVERE WEATHER MID WEEK

    A cold front is expected to bring significant severe weather, affecting many parts of New Zealand from Tuesday to Wednesday, including heavy rain, snow and severe gales, and may cause disruption to transport and stress to livestock. It is also worth noting that for coastal areas exposed to a strong onshore flow, high waves and heavy rain could lead to inundation.

    On Tuseday as the front moves up the South Island, followed by... cold southerlies, snow is expected above 100-200 metres in the far south, but 300 metres in Canterbury.

    Then on Wednesday a low deepens over the northeast of the North Island, possibly bringing severe gales, heavy rain and snow to some central New Zealand areas. Snow continues to fall to the aforementioned levels in the South Island on Wednesday.
     
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  49. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Maybe we could "borrow" some of that weather over this way...?

    The sooner we get some sort of under-Tasman snow tunnel built, the better!
     
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  50. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Yeah Looks like Ruapehu's in for a flogging end of week IMO
    Setup has Wahine like conditions for Cook Strait