NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    I thought I remembered CWU being a decent source in the past, but they seem to have turned into an ALL CAPS CRAZY WEATHER HYPE MACHINE

    To be fair this week is looking pretty good!
     
  2. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Says Mackenzie love on it's current look this system.
     
  3. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    MW says northern Canterbury resorts could get close to a meter if this system comes off well:
     
  4. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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  5. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Looks great!!!!!! Should be set up for the season after this week.
     
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  6. Crunky

    Crunky Active Member

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  7. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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  8. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Still mild and warm over your way?
     
  9. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    We've had a run of frosts and a decent freezing rain event, but it's not been overly cold. That article is hilarious. The incoming weather might be similar to the event we had back in May.
     
  10. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Interesting the metservice is calling highs @7 for QT tomorrow and Wednesday
    I think they'll struggle notwithstanding Queenstown's famous micro-climate
     
  11. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Not sure what's interesting about that. Temps are forecast at the airport remember.
     
  12. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    You don't think it will be colder?
     
  13. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    2 days worth of accumulation:
     
  14. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    I figure anyone in oz who isnt skiing NZ this winter should avoid this thread for the next week or two......
     
  15. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    The northern most resorts on the South Island (Hammer, Mt Lyford) are going to absolutely cop it. 1m plus storm by Friday
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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  17. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    So pretty :eek:
     
  18. Crispy013

    Crispy013 Dedicated Member

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    Remarkables copped maybe 10cm overnight. Traffic chaos on the road up from Queenstown. Took 2.5hrs :mad:. Making every vehicle fit chains which felt a bit over the top IMO.
     
  19. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    2.5 hours?! Jesus
     
  20. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    NZ school holidays, roads iced up, accident in Frankton.
    Was raining this morning at town level (by reports) and turned to ice on contact with the roads. Believe the airport was closed for a while this morning, but has resumed operation again.
     
    #220 Zimboo, Jul 11, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2017
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  21. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Well it made it to 2 degrees
    Airport or not
     
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  22. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Oh look, now it's 3!

    -5 on Mid Dome, that's a good sign.
     
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  23. Centago

    Centago Active Member

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    Can confirm this, was approx -1degC and raining this morning which was a little bizarre, and turned all surfaces into an ice rink. Began sleeting to lake level around midday-ish and was fairly heavy, also periods of snow flurries but nothing settled. Clearing rapidly now and snowline was initially at ~500m asl, has retreated slightly since.
    [​IMG]
     
  24. Zimboo

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    Colder tonight so maybe some flakes on the ground in town tomorrow morning?
     
  25. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    After nearly 3 decades in the Southern Lakes I sometimes think these deep south lows that being low level snow don't always bring the hip deep to the resorts.
    I guess it's the old thing of cold and dry thing but just an observation
    Don't know what others think? @Red_switch @Centago @ScottGN ?
     
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  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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  27. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Looks like the snow has started on the Porters cam (Hutt cams completely iced over already, of course).

    The clubbies need this badly.
     
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  28. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    By the time this storm turns SE, which is when much of the moisture will land onshore, the Southern Lakes are largely in rain shadow. There is a lot of elevated terrain (>1000 m) between the ranges of the Southern Lakes and the coast to the SSE - SE. For the Southern Lakes to do really well, this storm would have needed to have punched from the S-SW quarter. The deepest snowfalls in the Southern Lakes tend to be from the W-NW, but during these events the snowline is generally higher too. I might be able to answer this more quantitatively in a year or so.
     
  29. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Much more eruditely annunciated but kind of how I've perceived it in lay terms over the years :thumbs:(that the wettest systems arrive from the North but aren't as cold)
     
  30. Centago

    Centago Active Member

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    My gut feeling tells me there will be little or no snow settled to lake level in Queenstown in the morning. I think the bulk of the precipitation for Queenstown has been and gone, and we can only really anticipate a snow shower or two through the night as opposed to sustained steady snowfall. Hope to be proven wrong though.
     
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  31. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Yeah looks that way. Some moisture may make it's way in there tomorrow morning for a few hours as the sun comes up. NW follow up next week would be good. Fingers crossed.
     
  32. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    This looks a better bet for Southern Lakes, a good sou-westerly flow, cold air and the high is pinned nicely back over Australia and not ridging in too quickly.
     
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  33. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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  34. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    192+ hours out!
     
  35. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Snap.
    Too far out to consider, but worth watching.
     
  36. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    I'm not saying it's going to happen!
    I'm just offering it up as an example of a system that Southern Lakes could do well out of as opposed to the the sou-easterly we had today.
     
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  37. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Though perhaps I spoke too soon, it's snowing right proper at my place now.
     
  38. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Ah, NZ weather...............the weather target moves faster than a crac addicts eyes!!!!! LOL
     
  39. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Fancy that? I thought media dramatisation was confined to Australia.
     
  40. col

    col Active Member

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    My local mountains Dobson reporting +35cm...Hutt +20cm....Roundhill +40cm.

    Hutt and mountains to the North will do best next 48 hours I reckon with heavier snow this afternoon and finally clearing up on Saturday. Mt Lyford could get 100cm by the time it clears up.
     
  41. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    If the resorts can get the roads open and the lifts clear, this weekend could be EPIC
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    TV coverage this morning looked very impressive.
     
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  43. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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  45. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Picture from Mt. Hutt Facebook this morning
     
  46. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Mt Hutt closed today, too much snow
     
  47. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Wish we had that problem
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Wait a week.
     
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  49. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Aus and NZ both feeling the snow love this week, happy days for all! LOL
     
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  50. col

    col Active Member

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    I see another storm for next week on the way. Looks good for Temple Basin

    [​IMG]
     
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