NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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  2. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    The low level snow is very pretty, but the tussocks on the Craigieburn range are still exposed and unskiable, looking at the clubbie cams...more more more please. Still a while to go hopefully.

    Dunno, after this week's storm it looks rather shabby for the forseeable future to me. This new snow will probably end up with a nasty rain crust.
     
  3. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Yes there does look to be milder weather and some r**n next week unfortunately.
     
  4. Baggage

    Baggage Active Member

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    When it snows to ground level in town (Te Anau)..... Old Snow Groover comes out... :snowboarder:.. Hee
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Go ski Luxmore!
     
  6. col

    col Active Member

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    still snowing this morning. My local mountains are all at about +40-50cm now with heaps more inbound :)

    at least another 10-20cm in this one
     
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  7. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    I know its a bit early but what chch clubbie to book for monday night ski tuesday ?

    Both advanced/ expert skiers was thinkiing Cragieburn
    Cheers
     
  8. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    Or go to Hutt ?
     
  9. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Looks messy next week....west & north-west winds seem to feature on tuesday, so yeah Craigieburn or maybe Broken River to try and get the windblown stashes, as BR is known for that.

    edit: Hutt looks like it would be windy!
     
    #259 sbm, Jul 13, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2017
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  10. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  11. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    Ha ha cheers guys. Hopefully the clubbies will open and be decent ha ha
     
  12. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    I have to come out... I'm a giant Mt Hutt fanboy. I would ski there instead of Coronet, Cardy or lift-access-only Remarks any fine day of the week, and twice on tuesdays. But I definitely concede the "fine day" part of that last sentence is vital.
     
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  13. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    What do freezing levels look like for the moist second half of next week? I'm arriving in Queenstown on the 22nd - timing could be terrible?
     
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  14. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    I'd go to either Mt Lyford or Hammer Springs, as they would of copped the most snow of this system.
    Mt Lyford is reporting 60cms at village level this morning, they would have closer to a meter up on the hill
     
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  15. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Ruapehu getting smashed.
     
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  16. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Yes, but how long before they can get it open?
     
  17. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    Models did well IMO
    Much more reliable for NW systems and the North Island than the charging southerlies
    I think I mentioned a few days ago this system has SS Wahine like undertones so I hope everyone is safe on the Cook Strait
     
  18. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Broken River just reported 45cm at their day lodge (~1500m) on FB.
     
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  19. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Tuesday next week should be enough time?
     
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  20. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Swells up to 11 m in Cook Strait. Ferrys aren't running.
     
  21. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Too soon.
     
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  22. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    :eek::eek:
     
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  23. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    My old man did an epic new zealand road trip from Ruapehu to Queenstown back in the 80's, and reckoned the Amuri/Hamner Springs road was the worst and most heart-stopping! (I don't think they went to Olympus though).
     
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  24. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    Thanks for the info, Broken River told me a weekend opening but I wonder how much will be open and whether just to risk it and go to hutt. The computer generated wind forecasts dont look bad for tuesday but i dont know how good they are...
     
  25. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Still looks to be coming in solidly from the SSE on the Canterbury metservice radar!

    A lot of computer generated wind forecasts are actually for sea level or for a lower altitude, and are merely indicative for the mountaintops. yr.no is especially bad for this, it will pop out a pleasant 20km/h westerly breeze for Mt Kosciuszko during a cold front, ha ha, try 5 or 6 times that.

    Not to say that that's the case here - but it's something to consider.
     
  26. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    And even if they do account for terrain/elevation, the elevation models used in global forecasting models are outrageously coarse.

    yr.no cracks me up. Along with pretty much every other similar surface (accuweather etc)

    Pick global gridded model of choice. Extract surface values of whatever parameters for a given point location. Bam. Forecast. That easy.
    (not to say they aren't useful, but so is a rock of salt)
     
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  27. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Huh if anything there looks to be heaps of moisture in *south* canterbury on the radar right now, coming onshore near and south of Ashburton.

    Hutt looks like it's getting seriously firehosed!
     
  28. col

    col Active Member

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    Yeah Hutt will finish up with about 70cm from this storm. They already have 50cm with snow falling at a rate of 2cm/hour.
     
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  29. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Craigieburn reports 60cm and still coming down on FB.
     
  30. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Mountain are going to need some serious settling once this blows over.

    Always found that challenging in NZ, hard, & dangerous to get near the mountains after a decent dump.
     
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  31. col

    col Active Member

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    Mt Hutt with +17cm overnight for a total of +67cm. I still see a bit of moisture on the radar so they should get another 3cm or so....going to take a while to de-ice the lifts :

    [​IMG]
     
    #281 col, Jul 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
  32. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Hutt's website says they will open this afternoon, but only the quad and magic carpet. Still would be worth going up to get fresh tracks if you're in the area though
     
  33. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    The old "maybe open this afternoon" suckeroo. I reckon head south to Dobson or Roundhill that will be more likely to open, or maybe even Porters.
     
  34. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Porters posted on FB they've barely gotten in and haven't even started avy control work yet, they're going for opening tomorrow
     
  35. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Haha now THAT is going to take a while to de-ice! Hutt chair looking like an ice sculpture.

     
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  36. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Amazing work going on at Hutt. Cams show ops all over the towers de-icing.
     
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  37. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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  38. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Oh my lordy...........................

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    I am extremely jealous of anyone who is skiing in Canterbury tomorrow, lots of trip reports and photos please!
     
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  40. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Summit Six is turning at Hutt. OPs must be testing it fully this arvo ;) for the punters tomorrow.
     
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  41. woggybot

    woggybot Dedicated Member

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    And now we all know why we love snow :D :D :D
    Gorgeous
     
  42. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    4 ops on the way up summit six.................bunch of punters at the bottom. Maybe they will give the punters a little go this arvo?

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    Yep, punters on Summit Six now.
     
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  44. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Those sweet first tracks with 90+cms of wind drifts.....*drools*
     
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  45. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Active Member

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    Damn its going to be a hard decision on Monday night.... Hutt or Cragieburn - thanks for everyones contribution to my awful plight...
     
  46. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Hutt this afternoon
    [​IMG]
     
  47. ScottGN

    ScottGN Dedicated Member
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    Hawkes Bay-Taihape road. The central North Island is still a real mess.[​IMG]
     
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  48. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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    Awe, gee, shucks...
     
  49. Telestrom

    Telestrom Addicted Member

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    Great pic from Mt Hutt Facebook page of the conditions today

    [​IMG]
     
  50. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    I see that firstly they managed to get in to Mt Olympus (!!) and secondly, they found they didn't actually have enough snow to open! I guess the southerly was too strong, they were on the windward side of the storm and most of the snow got blown over the other side.