New Zealand NZ Predictions & Observations 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by ScottGN, May 18, 2017.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Snow level of 1600m initially lowering to 700m Friday evening in Canterbury and about 1400m lowering to 600m in Otago. So, hopefully not too calamitous.
     
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  2. Centago

    Centago Addicted

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    Hopefully there isn't too much rain, but it could be a blessing in disguise by rinsing the snowpack of the facet layers which are widespread in the South Island. I imagine there's going to be a fairly active natural avalanche cycle in some parts over the next day or two.
     
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  3. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Haha sure it'll get rid of the facets, but sending the majority of the snowpack off down the side of the hill along with them is not ideal!

    I guess we'll see.
     
  4. col

    col One of Us

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    Storm is on the radar now.....looks pretty intense.

    Mt. Hutt and Porters will get smashed tonight by the look of it. Snow level is a bit high which is a worry !!
     
    #354 col, Jul 20, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2017
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  5. Baggage

    Baggage Hard Yards

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    Like Forum members have said.. Some great base set in the Southern Lakes & elsewhere in SI NZ.. Ready for some great action in August.. Looking further out it looks like some Lows might align Classically from the SW rather than ECL's dropping down and over.. Yeeoww
     
  6. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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  7. col

    col One of Us

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    I was at Roundhill a couple of days ago and there was a pretty big avalache about 500M from the top of the rope tow going all the way down into the creek.
     
  8. col

    col One of Us

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    Well looks like there was very little rain last night. Perhaps it rained for a short period but then turned to snow. Cams are covered in snow this morning and Mt. Hutt reports 10cm already and this storm has just started.
     
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  9. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Hard Yards

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    Around Wanaka is very dangerous at moment too. Friend got helied out 300m remotely triggered avys. Should be highest not considerable imo
     
  10. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I mean "considerable" is, well, considerable danger. Avalanches likely, dangerous conditions, expert skills required. There's actually a quite bit of debate as to whether "considerable", is a misleading and useless rating. Most incidents occur during "considerable" danger IIRC.

    FWIW the Craigieburn forecast is for "high" danger today. Remotely triggered persistent slab avalanches from the weight of a single person! High is almost reserved for when the avalanche risk is putting stuff like inbounds skiing, traffic, roads, buildings at risk.
     
  11. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Be careful what you wish for, it could end up as useless as the Australian bushfire rating. Low/Moderate (yes that's one rating), High, Very High, Severe, Extreme, CODE RED (yes an actual rating). Every time a bad bushfire tragedy occurs they tack another one on.
     
  12. col

    col One of Us

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    heavy snow on the Dobson cams....they are nearly covered over now but I reckon 20-30cm already. Should easily get 50-100cm out of this storm.

    This is the Perfect Storm for Canterbury :)
     
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  13. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Dunno about perfect but it's sure a big 'un.

    Hutt reported rain then 9cm overnight. Broken River 2cm wet snow at the lodges, and wintery mix this morning.
     
  14. col

    col One of Us

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    Look again...they have updated it to 30cm already :

    https://www.nzski.com/mt-hutt/mt-hutt-weather-report

    My guess is they will get close to 100cm.
     
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  15. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Models look way better.Love an upgrade.
     
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  16. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Looking deep up there



    Porters/Clubbies probably not faring quite as well....Craigieburn cams looking damp at the bottom but whiter up the top.
     
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  17. col

    col One of Us

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    Dobson is getting smashed.....50cm so far I reckon. The 4wd parked up there is now buried up to its windows.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    How is this shaping up for further south, around Queenstown and Wanaka?
     
  19. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    A bit of snow tonight and tomorrow morning, good top-up, not epic though. Remarks will do the best off of the southerly.

    Also looking ahead, finally a more standard SW cold front coming through, Treble Cone sounding good for early next week.
     
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  20. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Temple Basin update: "It's puking at 1380m"

    Though they would be getting some advection effects with several ranges between them and the east coast.
     
  21. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  22. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Bullseye!
     
  23. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Roundhill report: 60cm and counting.

    Looks like pukage on the Craigieburn cams at base level now too
     
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  25. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wasn't that much of an upgrade I don't think. As Red switch point out earlier in the thread the models often have a hard time plotting these systems for NZ.
     
  26. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm still expecting 40cm+ for Remarks by Monday (IMO)
     
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  27. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday looks good for the Queenstown/Wanaka resorts too:


    There looks to be more building for mid next week too. Happy days! :)
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ^ a touch on the warm side?
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Wait for the hook Claude it's coming as it moves across
     
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  30. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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  31. col

    col One of Us

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    Dobson is getting smashed....Timaru flooded.....the 4wd parked up the top carpark is nearly completely buried in snow.

    I see another storm coming next Tuesday
     
    #381 col, Jul 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2017
  32. Crunky

    Crunky Hard Yards

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    Mt Hutt is reporting over 60cm at 7pm and will not be opening tomorrow. Road is closed from Ashburton due to flooding and sections of the road from Christchurch to Timaru closed southbound.
     
  33. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Army has been deployed to Timaru to assist with flood evacuations. A State of Emergency has been issued for all of Eastern Otago including Dunedin.
     
    #383 ScottGN, Jul 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2017
  34. col

    col One of Us

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    Dobson reporting 127cm this morning and counting. Should be at least another 20cm in this storm. Metservice forecast +50cm for today :). Still raining hard here in Timaru. Lots of flooding so glad I live up on a hill.
     
    #384 col, Jul 22, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2017
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  35. Crunky

    Crunky Hard Yards

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    Hutt is reporting it rained for an hour last night putting a crust in. They've had 15cm on top of that and still going. Not sure what that will do to the snowpack but it should keep my base away from the rocks.
     
  36. col

    col One of Us

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    The storm is moving North so Mt. Hutt will get a heap of snow today. My guess is they will finish with around +120cm
     
  37. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Well my flight into Queenstown was cancelled today. Guess we are going tomorrow. Found out as we were in the queue. Thanks Qantas
     
  38. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Roundhill are reporting 110cm of new snow, so looks like their total will be quite similar to Dobson
     
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  39. ajmit3

    ajmit3 Hard Yards

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    Where would you guys go ... Besides Hutt on Tuesday for an advanced skier ? It's pissing down in Chch right now.
     
  40. col

    col One of Us

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    Porters is good when there is alot of new snow and only 1 hour drive from chch....big mamma and bluff face are big steep long runs which should be excellent on Tuesday. I see a nice little topup coming on Monday (another 10-20cm I reckon). Otherwise if you want drive a bit further there is Craigieburn and Broken River about 30 mins extra drive up the road.

    ....dobson cleared up a bit now & I see the snow is over the top of the t-bar at the bottom
     
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  41. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks unlikely. Remarks missed out really with only 5cm overnight, too many mountains between it and the sou-easterly flow, the snow's all ended up on the Old Man Range and The Garvies. Cardrona did OK they say they got 30 cms. CP got 10cm.
     
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  42. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Mt Dobson (from their Facebook page) is somewhere under all that snow

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tekapo has had another big fall overnight too
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. col

    col One of Us

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    A couple of shots from the top of Roundhill I took mid-week

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #394 col, Jul 22, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2017
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  45. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes
    I was thinking the low would spin moisture onto the Lakes but never trust a Sou Easter for snow eh
    Coronet Cardrona would do better
     
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  46. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Craigieburn
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. col

    col One of Us

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    Looks like they have a bit of digging to do at Dobson. Mountain closed today. I see more snow coming on Monday, Tuesday and a bigger storm on Thursday.

    [​IMG]
     
  48. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Roundhill are claiming 130cm with 3m drifts.

    Pics from their fb page look epic.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hmmmm
    That makes it hard to get a pie
    Presumably the rope tow will be unusable
     
  50. col

    col One of Us

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    The rope tow is only about 100cm off the ground so must be buried.... maybe they can lift the rope higher up the poles but it will be a big job !!
     
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