NZ Predictions & Observations 2018

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ScottGN, May 31, 2018.

  1. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    With both Coronet Peak and Cardrona opening this weekend for a pre-season teaser it seems the right time to start a winter thread for NZ.
    Given the smaller number of commentators I think the Predictions & Observations combo worked well last year.
     
  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    GFS 6 pm Tuesday 5 June
     
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  3. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Minus 6 at my place this morning. Pretty nippy for May.
     
  4. ShavedBadger

    ShavedBadger Hard Yards

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    Subscribed.
     
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  5. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Holy Moly...........................fingers crossed for this to come off.



     
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  6. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Based on no scientific data whatsoever, I predict NZ is going to have a bumper season while we struggle in Oz.
     
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  7. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Mt Hutt forecast..............:):)

     
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  8. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Big downgrade today...................see what happens tomoz on the charts.
    It's all a bit of fun till Monday to see what really may occur.
     
  9. dan72

    dan72 Hard Yards

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    Still looks on...for now
     
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  10. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Yep, looks good again.
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    You guys are in for a treat IMO.
     
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  12. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    It currently looks like there’s some potential for flurries at lake level around the Southern Lakes on Tuesday night IMO.
     
  13. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Remarkables is opening a couple of days early next Thursday. They’re calling snow depth of 60-80 cms across the ski area.
     
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  14. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Rainbow looking lovely
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  15. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Snow Forecast swinging back to Southern Lakes
     
  16. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Hard Yards

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    Persistent frosts in Queenstown during the last week made for great pre season conditions, although inversion layer has kept snowmaking at bay recently. Today 1pm, up high still looks great
     
  17. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Not as much snow forecast, but at least it will be widespread.

     
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  18. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Up and down.........still a few days to go.
    Originally models had moisture coming in solid from the SE, then the moisture was running up outside the west coast. Where will the moisture go if enough anymore? Will come to a mini conclusion tomoz or after it actually happens. LOL
     
  19. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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  20. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Metservice Severe Weather Outlook Tuesday to Thursday
     
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  21. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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  22. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Would love it more if the Low went further south and pulled that big cell east onto the south island as originally forecast. Still ........... will be good.
     
  23. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Maybe doogasnow. Though forecasting for snow in NZ is a mug’s game really. If the front holds its current south, slightly sou-west trajectory then we could see decent snow around the lakes. If it goes a bit sou-easterly then I may not get much as I’ll be fully in the lee of the Remarkables. Whatever happens ski areas are going to have their best opening weekend in years.
     
  24. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Metservice Rain Forecast midnight tonight. Inside the purple lines precip will likely fall as snow. Yellow/orange is 10-25 mm/cm range for previous 3 hours.
     
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  25. ShavedBadger

    ShavedBadger Hard Yards

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    Starting to feel like I backed a winner by choosing UnZud this year over the local hills. :D
     
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  26. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Hmm, this system will be cold, but maybe not heaps of moisture.
     
  27. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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  28. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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  29. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    After a week and a half of flawless blue skies, the front is starting to push into the Lakes. And the initial rain bands are impacting the south coast.
     
  30. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Heh heh, tell that to the Wanaka locals ;)
     
  31. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    Yeah doesn’t look like much of a system for Wanaka. Light rain falling where I am near Frankton now though.
     
  32. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    I was more referring to the flawless blue skies, don't think they've seen the sun for a fair while... was positively miserable down in town there yesterday (up above the inversion was another story though).

    I think this system might have 10 - 15 cm for the Southern Lakes. Useful, but not the snowpocalypse some might be expecting with the way the media have been carrying on. In the alpine on sheltered S aspects this snow will likely be falling on extensive, well developed, surface hoar.
     
  33. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    I didn’t realise Wanaka was getting the cloud inversion too. It’s been perfect blue skies around Lake Wakatipu. There’s been plenty of places around Central Otago though where the hoar has been developing.
     
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  34. hpsauce

    hpsauce One of Us
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    Probably best it doesn't dump 2 feet then
     
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  35. Centago

    Centago Hard Yards

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    Yea Wanaka has been under the inversion and associated cloud for at least the last 5 days. Here's a pic I took yesterday arvo from above, looking over the northern Pisa's in the foreground and the sea of cloud over the Wanaka Basin:
     
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  36. Centago

    Centago Hard Yards

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    Meanwhile, as you said ScottGN is has been pristine in Qtown (pic taken yday):
     
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  37. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    What time did you fly over @Centago ...? We were back at the carpark @ 4pm.
     
  38. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Hard Yards

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    Heavy blowing snow in Queenstown with a southerly gale, accumulating fairly quickly. Freezing polar conditions.
     
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  39. Centago

    Centago Hard Yards

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    Approx 4.45pm.

    Reports of snow falling throughout Southland this evening, MetService forecasted down to 200m asl but it has fallen in places like Gore which is a bit lower (maybe 70m asl?).
     
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  40. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    My little weather app I have tells me it’s currently snowing at Southland and Otago.
    Nice little event for u guys over there :thumbs:
     
  41. Secretcookie

    Secretcookie Hard Yards

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    Dogs enjoying the snow this morning, 5cms in the yard
     
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  42. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty
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  43. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us
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    That looks really depressing. Queenstown Mall is such an untidy, ugly shithole.
     
  44. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Queenstown in general is not a particularly "tidy" looking place as far as urban areas go. But yeah, they Mall is a bit of an abortion of urban design and architecture.
     
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  45. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty
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    I remember parking outside and gaily doing my shopping in the 4 square supermarket right there back in the day, then ducking into Outdoor Sports for some impulse buying and a yarn
     
  46. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty
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    Which is why I've finally forsaken it for the first time in 25 years(the centre of town that is)
     
  47. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    Arrowtown has everything you need, except a lake in Summer. That said, of all the big lakes you could spend time on in the South Island, Wakatipu would be near the bottom of the list.
     
  48. Red_switch

    Red_switch Part of the Furniture
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    The original Outside Sports was so good.
     
  49. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty
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    It was
    Starbucks depresses me for so many reasons and that's one of them