NZ - touch and go for July 19-20

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Well, as most of you have already forseen, another depression is on the way for later this week.

I thought it was going to be too warm for anything good to come of it (and the charts show the 540 line below the moisture - just reaching the mid-south island).... BUT MetService seems to think that we could have the best of both worlds (for skiers) with the wet north-wester hitting a very cold southerly blast.

My prediction is a lot of rain for Ruapehu and the central Sth Island - followed by snow showers to low levels at the end of the week.

Anyone going for 'dump on Wed/Thur'?
 

MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
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Mar 12, 2002
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stelse, I think the models have been amazingly consistent for NZ this year.
I think 20-40cms Canterbury and Otago Weds night/Thurs isnt out of the question.
I certainly dont think the moisture will fall as rain above @ 1500 meters as it looks like the bulk of it will arrive late Weds with the sea-level freeze sneaking up towards the Chathams.
 

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
335
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Could be right snow-pixie... MetService update has a possible snow warning for most of the east of the south island... (low likelyhood - but that's better than no likelyhood
smile.gif
and anyway, does low likelyhood of 'heavy snow to low levels' imply high likelyhood of some snow at high levels :out: )

Interestingly, they also have a possible warning for Nth Island... but that will be for a period after most of the rain has fallen.
 
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Toto Warmlet

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Sep 2, 2003
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I agree touch and go, who knows, just might be an good Nth Is. dump? In any event weekend looks quite clement for a change.
Was up on Taranaki from about midday on Sunday, not much wind at all, W'papa was still on windhold when we left NP at 1030, view to the central plateau was quite murky, (all those wood fires?)and Ruapehu was having a SE gale?, know they opened later , but still weird.
 

James B

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Dec 18, 2000
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Well I think it will be plenty cold enough for snow in Canterbury. Should get some decent falls out of this one (again) for Broken River. Nothing for the plains though - farmers can relax.
2006 is a great winter. We'll be skiing well into November this year. Bookings are good, we should make a profit.
In the Alps, big top-ups for the glaciers, i.e. this will help the summer climbing routes too, as well as the hydro-electric lakes for power generation. All good.

(And for the North Island - the usual high freezing level, rain/wet snow, for Ruapehu. As usual Mt Ruapehu will get better and better as the season goes on, and will be sensational in spring.)
 

madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
318
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wellington NZ
It is looking very hopeful for Ruapehu with this cycle, lots of moisture and it should be cold enough +1500m, so I think they could get a big ( 0.5M) dump out of this,

but that said , it is becoming a very consitant pattern at the moment for the lows spinning off from Aust to head across the centre/upper north Island, It is giving some on the East Coast their wettest July in history, and it is less than 2/3 through
 
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Willoughby

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Jul 6, 2006
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Hamilton NZ
stelse, I think the models have been amazingly consistent for NZ this year.
They have been okay, nothing to write home about.

Looks under marginal for heavy snow about Tongariro NP at this stage.. and that antarctic jet will have a very hard time in attempt to under-cut the moist, warm air arriving tomorrow over the north, so risks low there. Will need to wait until Saturday for a slight dumping, but only if that cold air comes further west, running up from the South Island with localised convection.
Other than that, at about 800m, just looks wet, then dry from Friday.

Friday looks to be the snow day in the south, unless the low declines further south for warm-advection.
 
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MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
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Mar 12, 2002
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Willoughby...I guess I'm comparing them to last year where every predicted traditional South to North system sweep faded 48 hrs before delivering.
Any quality this yera seem a treat!
 

davio

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Aug 22, 2005
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im heading to Craigieburn 6th Aug, is there any sites with long range forecasts? or does anyone have an insight to possible snowfall around that date?
 

James B

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Dec 18, 2000
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mochon said:
how are we looking now nzers has it started snowing or does it look like rain
Freezing level 1600m, so snow down to 1400/1300m, subsequently lowering, i.e. perfect.
smile.gif


Tue Jul 18 : Issued at 5:40 pm 18 Jul 2006 NZST High cloud thickening and scattered rain developing overnight.
Wind at 1000m: Light winds.
Wind at 2000m: Light northeast developing.
Free air freezing level: About 1600 metres.

Wed Jul 19 : Issued at 5:40 pm 18 Jul 2006 NZST Periods of rain, turning to snow during the afternoon or evening.
Wind at 1000m: Southeast, rising to 60 km/h in the afternoon.
Wind at 2000m: Southeast, rising to 70 km/h in the afternoon.
Free air freezing level: Lowering to 700 metres in the afternoon or evening.
 
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James B

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Dec 18, 2000
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davio said:
im heading to Craigieburn 6th Aug, is there any sites with long range forecasts? or does anyone have an insight to possible snowfall around that date?
:D Trying to forecast NZ mountain weather three weeks in advance is somewhere between optimistic and fanciful.
About six days in advance we can have a realistic attempt at forecasting. But three days is about the accurate limit.
 
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Old Navy

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Jun 24, 2004
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It is puking here in Arthur's Pass and looks set in for the day. At least 30cm on the ground at 700m last night and still coming down heavily. The village is very very silent
 

Top Rock

Hard Yards
May 1, 2004
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Thredbo
Enough ok, i'm comming over week after next if i can get a flight... ski the club fields for a week

just back in off the hill (Thredbo)....
UHG!!!
snowmade... good 1st run then chopped up lumps of ice..

elsewere, bullet proof with 1 cm of very light on top (not enough to help get an edge)

Off piste .... refrozen elephant snot with 1cm of fluff.

not missing anything
 

Toto Warmlet

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Sep 2, 2003
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Looks like it's go rather than touch? (not sure how that expression works) now. 3 degrees colder than predicted in New Plymouth at 11 degrees at midday and snowing on the Lorenzo Bar cam at W'papa base, for the last hour by the looks...this system looking good, (except if you're on the Nth Is East coast and are fed up with flooding).
 

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
335
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
hmmm - i still think that for Ruapehu it is a bit of 'touch' and a bit of 'go'. Freeze levels are expected to rise over the next 24hrs when most of the rain comes (to 2300m?) - before plummeting (to below 1000m).

Obviously it is all ‘go’ for the sth island.
 

James B

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Dec 18, 2000
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Well, that's splitting hairs.
And while we're hair-splitting, I could add that 40cm was probably a significant underestimate for the storm total. I'll report back when I am up there next.

6 degrees in Christchurch, and still raining.
 

Willoughby

First Runs
Jul 6, 2006
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Hamilton NZ
Those Canterbury ski fields should be on some alert... looks like further heavy snow on the cards on Friday. But it looks like the coldest air on the southwest change will run up to the east of NZ.
 

BenLomond Iceman

One of Us
Aug 22, 2000
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tasmania
You kiwis are getting dumped on this winter and were getting fA in Aus! Were used to that here in tassie cause our mountains just aint tall enough. Benlomond 1573m and were to close to the ocean, benlomond 70k from the pacific! Hope theres some snow still left when i bring our crew of tassie snow freaks to queenstown on the first week on sept 1-10th!

Should we still get some good skiing in at that time of the season?
I know last year was cr%p at that time but this year has has a way better start!
laugh.gif
 
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James B

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Dec 18, 2000
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BenLomond Iceman said:
Hope theres some snow still left when i bring our crew of tassie snow freaks to queenstown on the first week on sept 1-10th!

Should we still get some good skiing in at that time of the season?
Should be no worries there.

But seriously, have a think about skiing at the Canterbury club fields .
We used to get Tasmanians regularly when there were direct flights Hobart to Christchurch, that seemed to stop when the direct flights disappeared.
But it's still closer that Queenstown, and cheaper. On-snow accommodation, and good social atmosphere.
 
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stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
335
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Cold front on the way up both islands tomorrow!

Could even get some sleet in Palmy
eek.gif


From Taranaki and Taihape to Kapiti Coast
Rain today. Very cold and showery tomorrow, with snow lowering to 300 metres.
 
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madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
318
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wellington NZ
Toto Warmlet said:
and the Rockgarden chair is down for 2 weeks
Gonna be one of those weekends when it will be faster to hike the 1st chair rather than wait in the queue
smile.gif
,

That said it might be sunday till the bluesky and sunshine fully comes out for the Nth Island.
 
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longinforearly90s

First Runs
Jul 11, 2006
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queanbeyan
yeah, i came from oz to porter hts last season and skied on a questionable 30cm base. We still managed a couple of days and a very enjoyable day at cheeseman on a bit more snow. If i was there this week I'd be at the bottom looking up at continually closed resorts due to heavy snow, work it out? can someone find me a good govt job over there on $65000 Aus dollars!
 

MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Mar 12, 2002
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longinforearly90s said:

can someone find me a good govt job over there on $65000 Aus dollars!
I don't think even their Prime Minister makes that much :evil:
 
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snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
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vic
snow-pixie said:
longinforearly90s said:

can someone find me a good govt job over there on $65000 Aus dollars!
I don't think even their Prime Minister makes that much :evil:
Isn't that why all the Kiwis are over here un the first place??
laugh.gif
 
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madskierNZ

First Runs
Jul 3, 2003
318
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wellington NZ
Bunyip007 said:
Looks like the winds are going to stick around on the Saturday for Mt R . Do you reckon that 50 KM/H will cause the top part of the mountain to close ?
Could be a problem first thing up until they can get some dead weight (ie customers) on board to weight the chairs down.

Will probably run chairs slower than usual if the winds are too high, they can run the T's in pretty much anything,

According to BOM, 50km/h is on the cusp of "strong winds" and "near gale"

Also, metservice are forecasting 65km/h about the tops and 50 at lower levels for saturday,

The Wind at Ruapehu can be fickle thou, I would guess it might be stronger at whakapapa as it will have been compressed around the mountain off the SE like it is today, but possibly less at Turoa.

But as always, she is a fickle mountain
 
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Still looks like they will have strong weekends on Saturday.

Issued at 1:36 pm 21 Jul 2006 NZST
Remaining snow showers in the south clearing during the morning, leaving a fine day with a few cloudy areas.
Wind at 1500 metres: Southwest easing to 40 km/h during the morning.
Wind at 3000 metres: Southerly 80 km/h, easing to southwest 55 km/h during the morning.
Freezing Level: 600 metres, gradually rising to 1200 metres.
 

Toto Warmlet

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Sep 2, 2003
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Bunyip we usually do have weekends on Saturdays but tomorrow may be wendy,as the wind howls outside now in NP, Sunday probably ok. I've not gone over quite a few times fearing the weather will be crook and been wrong, or gone and found the snow all blown away, and just ice.
The season has a long way to go and it's always better later.
We're going anyway.
 

Toto Warmlet

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Sep 2, 2003
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post script, weather was not as predicted
Saturday at W'papa was calm as. Snow a little too "packed powder" maybe and crowds average large, @15 min wait on the West Ridge chair.
Sunday windy, quite cloudy, parked in carpark 9 at 1230 and decided to go home.
Unless you're able to score Ruapehu during the week in winter, it tends to suck, just too crowded. Maybe with the new chairs in ?3 years time , things will be better.
Roll on spring.
Bunyip, Manganui may hang on for a while yet, best base in 10 years on the T. Top tow not currently open, ?too much snow and some suspect the club is being rightfully quite cautious , bearing in mind safety , with that avalanche 2 weeks ago,and also relationship with DOC.
 

stelsegood

First Runs
Jun 25, 2002
335
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Palmerston Nth, NZ
Skied Whakapapa yesterday. At about 10am is was looking like it was going to be a nasty day - freezing mist down low and super cold SW winds up high. But by about noon things seemed to settle down and snow conditions were fantastic on the top 1/3. Yes, there were a lot of people there (it was Sunday) - but lift lines moved quickly and waits were about 3-6mins.
 

Toto Warmlet

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Sep 2, 2003
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Shows what a lot of wooses we are then. I blame the damnably cheap season passes, doesn't matter if you go or not.
 
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