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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by MisterMxyzptlk, May 7, 2006.
this has to deliver.
Cut off low and a nice cold pool.
Snow pixie, we are already talkingabout this in POW's thread....
Well, to be fair May 8 is here and it is nothing but blue sky.
Looks like May 11 might be closer to the mark (provided the low sits off the East Coast as prrdicted)...
From MetService/DOC (for Ruapehu):
oops, didn't know missus frog was logged in....this is 'The Frog' posting.
Ruapehu web cams show that they have had some snow already - and i guess the main event (when the low crosses the Nth Island) will be tomorrow and Saturday.
Then fingers crossed for Old Navy / Frogs cold blast early next week.
Why is everyone so quiet about all this? Afraid of jinxing things?
I've been trying to accurately forecast NZ snow for about 5 seasons now..last year just about everything I thought would be a "blast" was a "pfft"
This is a great chance but most of us with an interest in NZ forecasting are a bit jaundiced methinks...
Ruapehu forecast sounds awful.
Better call off any Tongariro Crossing plans. Last week a 70 year old American tourist had the misfortune of freezing to death on the track.
Wed May 10 Issued at 1:08 pm 10 May 2006 NZST
Showers, some heavy with snow to 1700 metres, gradually easing and becoming confined to the western slopes this evening.
Wind at 1500 metres: Westerly 40 km/h.
Wind at 3000 metres: Westerly 50 km/h.
Freezing Level: About 2000 metres.
Thu May 11 Issued at 1:08 pm 10 May 2006 NZST
A period of rain around midday, followed by showers. Showers becoming heavy and squally from evening, with isolated thunderstorms and hail possible. Snow lowering to 1300 metres.
Wind at 1500 metres: Northerlies rising to 70 km/h and turning westerly early afternoon.
Wind at 3000 metres: Northwesterlies rising to 80 km/h and turning westerly early afternoon.
Freezing Level: 2200 metres, lowering to 1600 metres during the afternoon.
Fri May 12 Issued at 12:46 pm 10 May 2006 NZST
Overcast with frequent showers, some heavy falls and isolated thunderstorms. Poor visibility throughout. Snow lowering to 1300 metres. Gale west to southwesterlies.
Freezing level lowering to 1500 metres.
Sat May 13 Issued at 12:46 pm 10 May 2006 NZST
Early showers with poor visibility, then increasing fine spells. Early snow above 1300 metres. Near gale westerlies, easing and turning westerly in the evening.
Freezing level rising to 1700 metres.
Sun May 14 Issued at 12:46 pm 10 May 2006 NZST
Rain developing in the morning, turning to showers and isolated thunderstorms late afternoon. Snow above snow above 1600 metres. Northwesterlies rising to gale throughout.
Freezing level rising to 1900 metres.
What I said in the other thread a week ago....
"There may be something overnight on the 9th/10th may but it will depend largely on whether the cut off low that is expected will drag the expected cold pool with it. Keep an eye out for those dates for both north and south islands, still a fair way out. I still see nothing for the 6-8th.."
A little snow on the tops overnight in the Canterbury Highcountry with more expected - still snowing lightly to about 1300m. Would expect a decent fall tonight with the snow level lowering as we head into Friday, clearing on Saturday and coming back in on Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday look as if they will be very cold though it does not look like there will be much moisture left by then. With this, I hope I am wrong and that we will actually get blanketed in the white stuff.
fingers crossed this will be the beginning of a base for 06.
Old Navy: How's Arthurs Pass looking?
Seems like the low should be over your head in a few hrs...
that looks pretty intense. Did u have a link to Ruapehu's cam?
Hut Flat this morning, (The time stamp is Fubar'd)
looks like a good 20-30 + more to come later in the weekend
Some better snow over night last night. The small glimpses of the Craigeburn / Black range that I get show a pretty well covered mountain range down to about 1000m (looks better than at any stage last year). Currently there is a lot of mid level cloud with some of the mountains clagged in and a very chilly southerly blowing. I am hoping we will get some snow down in the village here this afternoon but think Sunday morning looks more promising. Just waiting for that day where I can ski to work...
Hopefully this will be the beginning of a base and we will get some frequent top ups. I seem to remember reading the moon man predicting the 28th of May as being a 'mega-dump' for NZ
Ruapehu got some good snow. I guess the main rain band has now moved on as the low has drifted east but the good news is that it should stay cold for the next few days.
From the Ruapehu webpage:
Reports form the hills here - Avalanche Peak to be exact, is that there is up to 70cm above about 1600m. Has cleared up a little but still looks as though it is snowing down the road. Am still hopeful for Sunday
There also looks to be something emerging towards the end of next week with a lot of moisture coming down from the north with what looks like a cold front catching it before hitting land. I promise to burn some skis during the week
Drum Roll(Big Statement time)
arty: This is the start of the NZ 2006 season arty:
Issued by MetService at 08:36pm 14-May-2006
SNOW WARNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND PLATEAU, OTAGO AND SOUTHLAND
MetService forecasters are warning of heavy snowfalls on the Desert
Road from Sunday night through to early Tuesday morning in a cold
southwesterly airstream.Snow is expected to develop above about 700
metres on the central plateau overnight Sunday to Monday, affecting
many roads. By the early hours of Tuesday,up to 15cm could have
accumulated above 800 metres on the Desert Road.
In Otago and Southland, between 9pm Sunday and 6am Monday, up to another 5-8cm
is expected down to about 300 metres about the western hills as far north as
Queenstown, and about the Catlins.
BR is looking good.
Check it out
And more would have fallen last night.
So much snow!!! I guess the Kawekas are getting most of it now - but we've had plenty at the ski fields already so cant complain. Cant wait for the Ruapehu page to update. I guess they would have had close to 2m fall over the past week! [but having said that the Desert Rd hasn't been closed much so maybe it hasn't quite delivered].
James: I am planning a few days down at Broken River in late August - so keep the updates coming in.
from the BR site:
"The MetService have now joined in the chorus and are predicting a ski season packed with lots of snow - bring it on!"
the BOM would never make a whole season prediction like that... is this for real?
Mt Ruapehu Moderate 15 May 2006
The last 4 days have seen approximately 60cm of new snow at 2000m, with snow down to 700m in the last 24 hours, associated with moderate to strong south-west winds. Slopes that face North above 2000m should be avoided. The backcountry avalanche danger is MODERATE. Further snow and strong southwest wind is expected until Wednesday. The backcountry avalanche danger is forecast to remain at MODERATE until then at least.
I have seen glimpses of Tongariro and actually, it doesn't seem like they've had a huge dump.
But Taranaki is looking great:
Ngauruhoe is not looking too bad,
Going to ski the Naki this year. Cant wait. Desert Road wasnt closed for long this morning though. So guessing they didnt have that much last night.