Thought I’d kick this one off early this year in anticipation of 1) getting any skiing in at all with COVID restrictions, and 2) some nice early cold weather. @SMSkier also gave me a gentle nudge to get this party started . For those unfamiliar with this thread, the snow depth at Spencer’s Creek (located between Perisher and Charlotte’s Pass) is measured weekly by Snowy Hydro in a scientific fashion. Several measures are taken and averaged out. This is recorded on their website and the data is used by some of the remaining NSW ski resorts. https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-energy/water/inflows/snow-depths-calculator/ Historical info and previous years’ threads here: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/spencers-creek-deep-creek-measurements-2019.84664/ So, who’s game to predict maximum snow depth this year. @rocketboy?
If we are allowed on mountain with lifts spinning = 1.8m with mega dumps and mega r*** due climatic conditions season is cancelled = 3metres and ridiculously epic IMO
In excess of 2 metres. Randomly and optimistically going for the 4peat! This week I’m settling for 9 cms (generally measured by hydro on a Thursday). Not that it’s getting measured this week but my photographic evidence taken yesterday up at the site area settles that. .
Yes I'm going all out but some of the meteorologists back a big season based on current and forecast indian ocean dipole and SOI etc I'm basing it on squirrels hibernating
Nice try, but its would fail. In fact it already has, as we were not skiing before Easter lol . but I will take 3.17, i ts the 4th good year
My educated guess: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/05/02/australian-snow-season-outlook-2020/ The number is 207 ± 30cm
Nice range there. I think after 3 good seasons in a row, we’re in for a pretty average one. My guess (based on nothing more than odds) is 153cm.
More moisture means more snow but also more r**n... so the snowpack could be less than in a drier year. Going to have think it through...
Slightly above average season coming up ............ 181cms based on this will be the first at least average moisture winter in a few years but still cold enough to not all be rain. I think there will be more rain days this winter than in the previous 3 but not enough to really worry about.
Just a question, are we guessing average, just because four years in a row is unlikely. So hedging on statistical probability, rather than methodology?
In all seriousness I think we have to look at the scientific evidence and climate drivers that contribute to snowfall totals. However, that slightly cautious side of me wonders about the likelihood of a fourth good season in a row. So, weather gurus, over to you!
Imo. With forecasts of higher precip. And enough cold air coming through in the mix. Above 1830m it will be another big year, 250cms+. Some monster drifts occurring from NW storms. Plenty of great spring skiing 2000m and above. However my gut is telling me multiple washouts below 1600m with risk of some trails closing/ reopening. Still plenty of good skiing/ plenty indoor. Hopefully restrictions lift and we get an early winter opening and resorts foresee this and pump out snow leading in to lessen effects of rain events. So it may look good historically but testing at times at valley levels. Time will tell I guess.
With plenty of moisture predicted to be coming down from the Indian Ocean via Broome, seems like we have the making of another good season....if the lows coming through the Bight can keep the temps sub zero and hang around. So looking 50/50 for another good season but with so much moisture/humidity coming off the plains which we haven't had during the droughts we may not see much dry snow. But if it does happen - 3m at Spencers.
I wish they would measure in the immediate aftermath of each storm system + at least once a week without any storms (historically Thursday, hit and miss in recent years). This year I'm expecting a less than average snow base to match the less than average potential for skiing. More precipitation expected means more rain means less snow on the ground. I'll take 141cm.
I actually wish the opposite, and wished they would stay at measuring on a set day every week. That is what they have done for 50 years. In recent times they have changed, and sometimes measure just after a storm. Doing that introduces a sampling bias into the measurements that wasn't there for the previous 50 years. Measuring multiple times a week would compound that sampling error I know it is not ideal when it snows, and they don't measure for a few days. However, if you have such an amazing historical record, the methodology should be consistent
I think a hybrid of always the same day, and additionally measure the anomalies would provide the best of both. Keep the data set accurate or true to the last 50 years, but add the anomaly data somewhere else in case its useful in the future.
I’m sure the resorts would like them to measure more often. If it was higher they would report it, if the extra measure was lower they would stick to the weekly measure
Who knows what the rest of 2020 might bring I think if you told me in January that the bushfire crisis would be out of the news and almost be forgotten in a couple of months due to another bigger crisis I wouldn't have believed you. So I guess anything is possible So I'm predicting that after the big historic Asian volcanic eruption of June 2020, followed closely by the European meteor strike of July 2020, and the complete Sunspot shutdown of late 2020, that we will be plunged into a profound period of global cooling / mini ice age. The glaciation that engulfs the snowy mountains becomes so deep that it takes snowy hydro several years to actually find spencers creek again, but the depth peaks at 32.3m in August 2024. In the meantime I am happily skiing the gladed runs of the berowra valley, whilst @Normo needs an icebreaker to get out of his house or alternatively ... 1.83m for a more conventional scenario
Just checked the Snowy Hydro site again. Still no measurements this year, so we shall have to wait and see if they manage the hike up to Spencer’s Creek and other sites in the next few days ....
