1. NOTICE: Did you lose your profile avatar image as a result of the great hammo-ing of 2020? (Sat 16 & Sun 17 Aug). If yes, then you need to know it won't be coming back, best to re-upload.

    This notice may be closed
    Dismiss Notice

Resource Observations 2020 Spencer’s Creek snow depth

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Lady Penelope, Apr 30, 2020.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,198
    Likes Received:
    3,721
    Location:
    Wollongong
    By the time they get out to measure the depth, a lot will have melted so there's no way we can accurately know how much this system will have produced. Lets just say 50cm as an average ball park figure on the ground right now at Spencers.

    IMO this year will be a good one, even just with two reliable statistical factors in play:
    1 - was supposed to be an Olympic year & olympic years have been very good seasons in the past
    2 - have a look back at the previous years that start the decade aka 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 - all pretty solid seasons as a general rule

    I will go with 212.5cm peak depth in early September
     
  2. hipo

    hipo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    3,145
    Likes Received:
    5,562
    Location:
    Grounded
    How's that book on positive thinking going?
     
  3. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    21,012
    Likes Received:
    14,697
    Location:
    Top drawer
    99cm.

    If I can’t ski, what’s the point?
     
    Ozgirl, Seafm and skiflat like this.
  4. Ted Harper

    Ted Harper One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2000
    Messages:
    2,352
    Likes Received:
    5,472
    Location:
    Palm Beach or Smiggins
    To keep with the theme you could have gone full Bradman: 99.94 ;)
     
    Chaeron, Seafm, Homer and 5 others like this.
  5. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    291

    Will get frustratingly close to the 3m mark, but will miss out due to prefrontal.

    There will not be any major r..n only events, but lots of prefrontal before 10-30cm events.

    There will be one major one metre+ event and a plus 50.

    Lots of niggling r..n early season and lots of cloud cover with hardly many clear nights for snow making early season.

    June 21st prefrontal plus 10-30cm events begin.

    July 9th prefrontal plus 50cm + event.

    August 3rd 100cm + event.

    September will be colder than usual and gradually guide us to our peak on October 2nd.

    Sun will slowly melt away and one warm wind event on 5th Oct followed by prefontal then a one foot dump on the 7th.

    I wonder if I will get any of those correct?:D
     
    rocketboy, dr80, skiflat and 3 others like this.
  6. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    Oh.. and I predict a Spencer Creek reading tomorrow of 42cm
     
    rocketboy and cold wombat like this.
  7. Myazma

    Myazma One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 10, 2009
    Messages:
    3,195
    Likes Received:
    4,900
    Location:
    Jindi
    Looking at Snowy hydro measuring area at Spencers crk this morning. Generally around 50 on Sun but melting off since. Drifts from 0 - 1.5m ish above CP turnoff
     

    Attached Files:

    Born2skii, coolair, skimax and 11 others like this.
  8. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    Checked again. Still no measurement made
     
  9. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,368
    Likes Received:
    5,922
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    So my dream of a Slurpee machine set up somewhere on the Atherton Tablelands might just come true after all:):)
     
  10. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,967
    Likes Received:
    14,342
    Location:
    Canberra
    I think the good folk at Snowy Hydro must all be working from home. By the time they get up to Spencer’s Creek to take a measurement all the snow will have melted!
     
  11. David-eTO

    David-eTO Early Days

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2020
    Messages:
    56
    Likes Received:
    31
    Location:
    Canberra
    Just an observation but if you were spot on on number 2, that might encourage Murray's in extending their service to mid September. That would be great.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,198
    Likes Received:
    3,721
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Check out the snowy hydro snow depth chart history, start of decade seasons have been notoriously good!
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.
  13. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,331
    Likes Received:
    12,771
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    I note Mt Buller is quoting 35cm on its website
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.
  14. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,112
    Likes Received:
    2,605
    Location:
    Illawarra
  15. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,860
    Likes Received:
    959
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Nice analysis. When I get the time I am going to go through all the data and work out some 'area under the curve' info to account for not only peak depth but also season length. I think I saw somewhere use the unit metre-days in the past. I am trying to get the raw data out of Snowy Hydro for every observation in each year but no luck so far.

    I am also interested in looking at some rate-of-change data for during the season. Weekly intervals aren't perfect but we might see trends about mid-season conditions (rain events melting snowpack fast in July/August more often, etc).
     
  16. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    1,112
    Likes Received:
    2,605
    Location:
    Illawarra
    One job I'd like to see done is to calculate the post peak melt rates (cm/day). First off to get an average rate. Then you could slice and dice the data to see if there are any trends over time.
     
  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,655
    Likes Received:
    17,340
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Post peak ablation rate is fairly consistent with the time of the year. The dominant factor is day length. Peak snow depth is probably a greater determinant of post peak season length than the time of the peak .
    I think Gerg had some charts that showed pretty clearly that the spring ablation rate was increasing.
     
  18. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    19,078
    Likes Received:
    15,771
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    I'll tell you my prediction for this season's peak snow depth in October.
     
    Majikthise likes this.
  19. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    2,032
    Likes Received:
    3,007
    First ever November peak confirmed LOL
     
  20. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,331
    Likes Received:
    12,771
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    Snowy hydro has changed the snow level calculator pages, again. New look is wacky curved “smoothed” graph plotso_O.

    Still no data for 2020:(
     
    Jonathan_P, SMSkier and Roymond like this.
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,926
    Likes Received:
    4,366
    Location:
    Gerroa
    I wonder how much they wasted on that IT project.
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,906
    Likes Received:
    1,591
    Location:
    South
    I think we need to make a complaint. I am calling 45 cm on the 5th May 2020 at Spencers
     
    Jonathan_P and Lady Penelope like this.
  23. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2016
    Messages:
    1,105
    Likes Received:
    1,588
    Precisely.
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  24. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,446
    Likes Received:
    19,279
    Here is how it looks as of right now. Pic taken in the fog so not clear but that’s looking directly to the site area where the samples are taken before the average depth is determined.



    Last week I skied about 200 metres left of shot starting at exactly the same elevation, up to the trig and back. Changes so quickly ......This pick I posted in the BC thread.

     
  25. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    It's obviously not important to them
     
  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,926
    Likes Received:
    4,366
    Location:
    Gerroa
    it's a short season you know...
     
  27. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    31,481
    Likes Received:
    5,292
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    There used to be a great photo at the Black Bear Inn in Thredbo of the Main Crackenback valley terminal area pretty much top to bottom in 1960/64 being skied on Nov 1
     
    cold wombat and jonathanc like this.
  28. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,331
    Likes Received:
    12,771
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    Snowy hydro have finally given us some data from Spencers, and the other sites

    Spencers
    0cm 20/5
    5cm 27/5
    17.5cm 3/6

    They also seemed to have tweaked the new website slightly, and toned down the ridiculous curved/smoothing plots they were doing
     
  29. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,446
    Likes Received:
    19,279
    Can I just say.......17.5 on the 3/6. Same for the resorts in that case.......conditions obviously vary depending on aspect ....etc, etc.

    Pic taken that day. A few hundred metres to the SW and maybe about 50 metres higher (ASL) of the sample area.

    And before you comment.... my bad turns with @hillyb in the pic.:thumbs:..

     
  30. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    I got thinking about the Snowy Hydro Non-Reading of the 60cm snow dump in May this year and started wondering why again(I can find it hard to just get over some things, but to be fair this was a pretty big dump even for winter standards).

    Why was it missed?

    I thought I'd find out if snowy hydro not doing May(or before) readings was a thing.

    After analysing the past 25 years Snowy Hydro have been consistently measuring May depths, at least to some extent. There were a couple 5 year gaps 1997-2001 inclusive and 2016-2020 inclusive, but apart from that, many years had May depths recorded.

    Were there any May/April falls between 2016 and this year not recorded by them, or during the other 5 year gap?

    Curious...

    (2020 May approx 50cm not recorded)

    May amounts recorded by snowy hydro:

    14th May 16.3cm 2015
    16 may 24.9cm 2013
    31st may 34.8cm 2012
    12th may 23cm 2011
    30th April 53.9cm 2009
    1st May 27cm 2008
    24th May 15.6cm 2007
    11th May 24.1cm 2006
    23rd May 43.4cm 2002
    18th April 27.6cm 1996
    26th May 41.6cm 1994

    There were plenty of depths in the years past recorded that were below 50cm(and as low as 15cm) that were recorded, so obviously the May 50cm wasn't ignored this year because it was insignificant.

    So why wasn't the recording of the snow depth of May this year not important compared to other years?

    Thoughts...
     
    Jonathan_P, SMSkier and robbo mcs like this.
  31. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,331
    Likes Received:
    12,771
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    I think it is just a low priority for them these days. It used to be a crucial way of assessing snowpack water reserves, but now they have so many other techniques. I think they mainly maintain it because of the historical legacy. However, not much point doing that if they are going to do it in a different way.

    Snowy hydro has been pretty busy too, snowy hydro 2, bushfire infrastructure damage. Like all organisations they will have been affected by covid work restrictions
     
    Adelaidometer and Jonathan_P like this.
  32. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    Is there a thread on this forum for such a subject ie "snow depths not recorded by snowy hydro"?
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    11,763
    Likes Received:
    17,925
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I believe AGL takes one at Rocky Valley Dam.
    Then there is a record kept at Hotham and Buller (I know the latter is publicly available).

    The rest is all done by marketing. So not a great amount to discuss.
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.
  34. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    Have there been any other May/early snowfalls since 2015?
     
  35. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,926
    Likes Received:
    4,366
    Location:
    Gerroa
    2019 end may was mega

    and 2017 early start was a late May fueled

    happens often - and june has been good since 2015 - but often becomes a dog until 2nd week of schoolies. though there was that one recent year 17/18? - where it rained on the LWE and then started snowing on the Thursday and didn't stop until Sept.
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.
  36. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    329
    Likes Received:
    536
    Location:
    Sydney
    i predict 28.6cm for thursday
     
  37. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,967
    Likes Received:
    14,342
    Location:
    Canberra
    Very optimistic with no snow in the forecast and depth of 11.6cm as at 18 June!
     
    cold wombat likes this.
  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,926
    Likes Received:
    4,366
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Starting to look like peak depth was an unrecorded 80cm in early May. The outlook is truly doomful.
     
    DidSurfNowSki and cold wombat like this.
  39. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,967
    Likes Received:
    14,342
    Location:
    Canberra
    :p
     
  40. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    329
    Likes Received:
    536
    Location:
    Sydney
  41. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,967
    Likes Received:
    14,342
    Location:
    Canberra
    Actually you were pretty damn close! A tad over 24cm this week recorded.
     
  42. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    3,331
    Likes Received:
    12,771
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    Thats the deep creek reading, not the spencers reading. Snowy hydro website is confusing.

    Also looking a the lake levels calculator, The dam level in Jindy is now 56%, lowest it has been since 2009, when they were working in the wall. You can easily walk out to curiosity rocks, and lion and cub islands are getting close together
     
    Majikthise likes this.
  43. warrie

    warrie One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    576
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sydney
    Mid July 09 and attempts were made to drive across the channel to Lion Is when water level at 45%. My recollection is some traytop being towed out backwards and passengers stripped to undies walking back thru some icy water LOL... W
     
    cold wombat likes this.
  44. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    329
    Likes Received:
    536
    Location:
    Sydney
    didnt see that deep creek is now at the top of the list :p i feel alot better now!
     
  45. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2017
    Messages:
    452
    Likes Received:
    1,243
    Location:
    Coogee, NSW
    21.6cm recorded Wednesday July 1st 2020.

    Will be a good guide to see if this system delivers a net gain or a net loss
     
  46. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    There is hope still. Last year the 9th of July was still only 44.8cm and we know what happened after that.

    I do feel sorry for the ones that have booked accommodation and are missing out now because of current snow levels/Covid restrictions.

    I'll be booking the last week of snow season if they can afford to stay open. Snow depth then is usually between 50 - 150 cm but less lifts are open due to less people there.
    Yes it's a lot more slushier in the afternoon, but I'm still excited!

    In 2017 6th July was only 43.2cm but they still got a peak 240.9

    Some more slow starts. Most which ended in above average peaks:

    2015: 9th July had 4.5cm. Peak 148.8
    2013: 4th July 28.1cm. Peak 185.9
    2010: 8th July 24.1cm. Peak 192.5
    2001: 5th July 16.3cm. Peak 195.9
    1992: 2nd July 38.3cm. Peak 316
    1991: 4th July 24.5cm. Peak 284.7
    1984: 5th July 24.5cm. Peak 233.9
     
    Val Desire likes this.
  47. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    274
    ...Although having said all that. This year is looking eerily similar to 1982.

    Take note that the early May dump this year of approx 50cm wasn't measured/charted by Snowy Hydro. If so it might have been identical twins:

     
  48. warrie

    warrie One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    576
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sydney
    Eerie indeed, mention of the '82 season will give those old enough to remember the heebie jeebies LOL...W
     
    robbo mcs, SMSkier and Adelaidometer like this.
  49. warrie

    warrie One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    576
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sydney
    WZ has Perisher with Fri to Sun pptn as 16 to 35 mm so call that cm of snow. BoM has 3 to 15 mm. Hmmm. But WZ alpine area forecast has 9 to 17 cm. All over the shop and eerie indeed.... W








     
    SMSkier and Adelaidometer like this.
  50. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,446
    Likes Received:
    19,279
    Hand goes up :rolleyes:...Was my second year ever trying to ski after the previous great season of 81.

    But you know what? Had a ball and have been back every year since.

    Good years and lean years. Its what we are able to make of it. Fortunately snow making has changed the paradigm and even now in very marginal circumstances, we are skiing advanced runs at PV.

    That said, hopefully it’s not another 82!
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.