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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Sinyk, Jun 24, 2010.
In here for observations of this "double" system passing through.
I can't work out how to post a updating sat piccie..
but i'm starting to see some rotation near Ceduna SA.
Oh god, double system. This will be 25 pages long by next wednesday!
Observation: Warm night in the mountains last night
After work I'll get on the blower and post updates from the hill(s) on my blog, also tomorrow night when it's all happening I'll be updating the blog from the hill.
At the moment I've got a bit of a precis of the various forecasts from around the place.
Way too warm at Mt William 7 degrees 0.2mm, Melbourne 16 degrees rain on the radar in central Vic. Baw Baw 3.2, Buller no recording,Falls creek 1.3 , Hotham still holding at 0.2....
No great prefrontal totals so far. Bendigo at 14mm highest. Colder air and rain over adelaide/mt Gambier.
Hold, hold it just a little bit longer.
Site for my weather station in Jindabyne;
I posted this last year when I was hosting it, I am now ftp'ing to an exetel hosted page. Pretty ordinary site with broken links but the data should be pretty good and the history is for the most part ok. Am pretty busy at the moment so can't guarantee it will be up 24/7.
Nice work Outlerlimits... Cheers!
Have you changed providers OuterLimits? No wonder I couldn't get your old link to work.
Currently 3 degrees in Perth was down to as low as 1 over night and -3 in the outer.
The cold air is still a long way off.
Colder air is just starting to move into Port Lincoln in SA, which has dropped about 3 degrees since midnight.
And for the moment, the colder air is well behind the prefrontal rain band.
Oh my this is going to be ugly. I was way off with my prediction of moisture arrival vs. temperature.
The coldest I have experienced in Perth for a long time this morning.
Car was completley encrusted with ICE and the lawn looks likes it got dusted with snow.
25/07:30am -1.5 - - - - SE 0 0 0 0 1029.3 0.0
25/07:00am -1.8 - - - - CALM 0 0 0 0 1029.2 0.0
25/06:30am -1.1 - - - - CALM 0 0 0 0 1029.0 0.0
25/06:00am -1.2 - - - - CALM 0 0 0 0 1028.9 0.0
25/05:30am -0.8 - - - - ENE 2 6 1 3 1028.7 0.0
25/05:00am -0.8 - - - - NE 9 11 5 6 1028.5 0.0
25/04:30am -0.7 - - - - CALM 0 0 0 0 1028.7 0.0
25/04:00am 0.1 - - - - CALM 0 0 0 0 1028.9 0.0
25/03:30am 0.4 - - - - E 4 6 2 3 1028.8 0.0
25/03:00am 0.0 - - - - E 4 6 2 3 1028.8 0.0
Port Lincoln temperature has gone UP in the last hour, from 9.4 degrees to 12.1
Adelaide is rising a little (like normal) 11.7 degrees at 9:30am.
interesting Mt William ( @ 1150m) temp is dropping.. now at 4.4 degrees.
Mt William is 4.4 , Mt Hotham is 2.3 ...As I said in the other thread for the last 2 days the mountains are gonna cop a fair bit of rain IMO. Plenty of rain around on the radar albeit not that heavy in central areas only the odd speck of yellow, no doubt it will intensify as it rises over the mountains.
Maybe so but it doesn't really matter in the short term, so you are going from ugly to very ugly! I mean for example Falls is reporting current 10cm which is crap as it was measured 4 days ago, reality is a fragile few cms. Buller similar and Hotham not much better. What comes from tonight onward and over the next week will be the issue, what was left on the ground was almost incidental, an hours worth of decent snowfall perhaps. Also VIC resorts have not really been able to make any snow in the past week. That will change dramatically too IMO
The Victorian west coast is dropping a little (around 2 degrees since midnight). No change away from the coast though.
Temperatures are steady around Adelaide.
I observe that it's not particularly healthy to observe today.
It's currently 3.4degs in Perisher after an overnight minimum of 1.8degs. Temperatures are currently and steadily going the wrong way.
Canberra is currently quite warm at 9.9degs with the temperatures here also steadily climbing.
There's very light drizzle/mist passing through in a nor' westerly airflow for both areas. It's barely even registering on the BoM rain radar.
Precipitation isn't too far away
Nice one. Thanks
Re: BOM radar - Buller is about to be washed out...
Hoping the precipitation can stay away from nsw as long as possible...
I'm in sawmill and it's been raining steadily for the past few hours. Not even cold down here.
Showers just started at Thredbo with 2 degrees. Looks like they may have closed ST on the cam.
2nd band just near Geelong at the moment and building steadily.
I observe that t temperatures are hovering arounf the 3degsC mark in Perisher, with the cams indicating light showers. The BoM radar also has light but intermittent showers for the region. Hopefully, the showers, what there are of them, remain light.
I'm praying for temperatures to start to fall sooner rather than later.
BOM are likely to change their forecasts this afternoon to have wet weather on Monday one of my mates work at BOM and just emailed me.
This next system is very complex. A low in the upper levels of the atmosphere should become cut off from the westerly flow to the south, meaning that it can hang over us for a few days â€“ from Monday through to Thursday. During this time there will be several â€˜pushesâ€™ from the south and southwest, that will intensify the precipitation.
If this is the case we should get decent snowfalls.
today as they call it is a wash out.
No sign of any colder air along the victorian coast. Mostly rain falling on the snowfields in the next 6 hours IMO.
I observe that the Thredbo AWS guage is filling nicely with water depite lack of clouds on radar, in a typical situation that occurs with orographic effect of strong norwesterlies
Not sure about that Sandy
Mt William went South West at 10-1030h with a 2 degree drop.
4 degrees and raining aint too bad for those obs.
Hate break it, but it's been raining pretty much all day, rather heavy at times.
Mt William dropped from 5.6 to 3.6 degrees between 9:30-10:30am.
By 12:00pm it was back up to 5.5 degrees, currently 4.9 degrees at 1:00pm.
IMO that's negligible changing, nothing to look at or bother getting excited about at this stage.
I observe that from the radar i can see it bucketting down at 4pm when i leave work, making the traffic horrendeous!
Im wishing i was wrong with my orographic lift predictions now, NSW is getting hammered and the main front hasnt even arrived yet!
The 850mb temperatures never looked good on any model for today, so I'm not surprised.
I observe that places like Ballarat are 2 degrees down on 9am temps, but I'm guessing that's more due to local effects than a general cooling.
Warrnambool has dropped 2 degrees since midday, perhaps it's just starting to come through.
Portland airport has gone up about a degree in the last two hours, and that's west of Warrnambool....
Well it is coming in from the NW ... I didnt see that from the models ... this will be a descimation Oh well, hopefully the second one will make up for it.
Cold front is nearly at Renmark in WA and will go through Mt Gambier shortly ... but it is going to be far little too late.
Wet and warm in Melbourne.......... Boing Boing!
It's not even cold in Tassie, with temps around 13 degrees.
Nothing was ever forecast to happen until late tonight at the earliest. Only people on these boards kept suggesting earlier developments so I really can't understand what everyone is going on about. It's also not particularly warm in Melbourne it was forecast to reach 17 and maxed at 14.6 and I believe has now dropped under 14. Hotham did not reach it's forecast max. Mt William has been dropping since midday and is now 3.9 Patience.
Raining t1ts here in the SE subs right now, heaviest it's been all day.
temp starting to dip at thredbo top station 1.9 dgs now and wind strengthening...
Turning out so far just as imagined.
Looks like cold air is around Warrnambol, from looking at the sat pic.
Good 5 hours way from Buller IMO.
I can't see any snow until the main front hits unfortuently.
Winds have shifted SW as far east as Ballarat, high temps still.
Yeah pouring near the airport too.
Will be a fun drive up tonight, my wiper blades are shot....