Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sinyk, Jun 24, 2010.
You dont need them
wet as all hell up here at DP
All the snow is gooooorn (from DP)
I dont think anyone expected the rain to come in so heavy and early with the NWerly -
Its raining steadily here in the Valley at Wandin East its also got quite dark. Its 12.2 in the city but still 9.5 at Mt Dandenong. the lapse rate is real cr@p right now with this northwester, Mt william 3.1 Mt Baw Baw 3.6 Hotham 2.1
I will spam the forums, my blog, facebook and twitter when it goes white. But not before.
Only 6-7mm of rain in Thredbo since 9am officially. Seems like it has been more than that.
Speak for yourself!
Maybe it's because I get to see the model forecasts in 3-hourly (or hourly) timesteps so I always had a good enough idea that the forecast precipitation was always a fair bit ahead of the forecast cold air.
It makes a bit of difference when you can watch the forecast evolve on an hourly timeframe instead of just looking at images taken at 12-hourly intervals.
2C on the clock tower at Buller. Raining steadily but not pouring. I observe winds have gone SW at Laverton. I believe we will wake to some white - how much I don't know.
None of the models (that I saw) showed the moisture with the NW, they all showed it with a W to WSW air stream ... have a look back at the charts posted in the predictions thread. I was looking at the 3hr charts on WZ and did not pick it up.
BoM Forecast from Thursday:
Cloudy. Areas of rain from the late morning, falling as snow by the evening. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 40 to 55 km/h tending west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h later in the evening.
All of the charts showed the majority of moisture falling by evening, with winds shifting Westerly by 10PM.
It's going to have to drop at least 5 deg at Lake Mountain before it snows!
Mt William down to 1.8, down from 3 deg at 4.30
Warrnambol down 2C in the last hour.
Not convinced the cold is through Warrnambool as the temps have varied between 10 and 12 all afternoon.
Mt Dandenong has dropped 2 degrees in an hour maybe the local effect of the heavy rain 15mm there now mostly in the last hour or so,7.5 there Melbourne 12.1. Still pouring out here.
Down another 0.5c last half hour, I think the start of the cold has passed through there now.
Ballarat down a C in the last hour too.
I observe that there doesn't seem to be much moister left though?
youre observation is spot on! But possibly the cold air is comming so if it can dig in to the NW feed on the tail end which is still wll over the alps we could have a little snow by morning 5cm possible hopefully more and possibly less!
1.8 @ Thredbo Top Station, between 2 and FIVE across Perisher.
Way too warm atm
Baw BAw has dropped 2.2 degrees in the last hour. It is 6.4 degrees on my verandah and I am 30k's east of Warrnambool
its on!!!!! baw baw dropped 2deg in last 45min to be 1.3deg
still a big band of rain to come
10cm imo i reckon
Mt William now down to 1.
I observe that there's not a lot of moisture showing on the radar from a line due north of Melbourne.
Sat pic doesn't inspire a lot of follow-up IMO
Little moisture following the cold air (sat pic / radar backs this up). Baw Baw will be lucky to get 5cm, let alone 1cm...IMO. Sorry to be a pessimist.
Eildon down over 2C in the last hour. Buller should be feeling the temp drop soon (hopefully), but wont be enough to get into the negatives. A good two hours before anything white *possibly* starts falling. imo
Everything was predicting this rain with little snow afterwards. And it has been very obvious on the satellite picture over the last 36 hours. Dense prefrontal cloud with absolutely no speckeled frog behind it. And BOM had it in thier forecast for the last 3 days at least.
Anyway nothing to worry about. We have rain falling on zilcho base and we are going to get 1m between monday and thursday.
Massive call there!
Yes, r**n everywhere across the southeast currently, cold air only just starting to hit southern VIC
Why let a little rain spoil the overly optimistic prediction party. I find the straight BOM forecasts, in particular within 3 days is all I need. As for an observation, hardly a drop of rain in southern Tas today.
Stay on topic ...
Baw Baw is cool, and WSW, but still not cold enough. There is still moisture around so there is hope for a 5cms or something.
Forgive my ignorance, but why is it warming up at Hotham? 1.6 to 2.6 degrees C in the space of three hours....I thought it was supposed to cool down.
baw baw down to 0 or thereabouts.
same at falls. 2.4 to 3.4
But Mt William showing a 'massive' drop in temps. From 1.8C at 5:30pm to 0.6C now.
Cold air is there, moisture is............NOT / TOO <choose option>
FWIW I did think there would be rain prior to snow, I just didnt see the rain in the NW feed I thought the rain would have started perhaps 2 or 3 hrs ago ... seems I was wrong and misread the charts
The second front is much more straight forward though That will be good
Not worried,I will be skiing this time next week
Baw Baw may actually get a few good CM's, moisture is still around, temps are good.
Could be right there mate, that cold pool needs to move a little bit further north to get the other resorts though. It will be very wet whatever falls.
Some heavy showers building at the back of the rainband, im getting hit hard as we speak. Could be a surprise or 2.
baw baw imo with plenty of rain to hit over next few hours and temps -0.2 could easily pick up 10cm
I should also add if you look at the melbourne radar you can see the WNW/WSW collision to the SE of Melbourne clearly. This is what is most likely causing the backend of the rainband to build and the heavy showers.
WSW at 22:30 for Buller perhaps snow is not far away?
Nice Accumulations happening at BAW BAW.
time wind dir wndspd tmp dew pt rh fire rain
Fri 23:00 EST WSW 22 35 -0.9 -1.0 -6.7 99 1 Low 18.0
Fri 22:30 EST WSW 24 39 -0.4 -0.5 -6.3 99 1 Low 16.6
Fri 22:00 EST WSW 24 37 -0.2 -0.3 -6.1 99 1 Low 15.4
Fri 21:30 EST WSW 24 35 0.1 0.0 -5.7 99 1 Low 12.8
Temps have dropped at Thredbo by nearly 2C; currently around 0.8C.
What has me worried is the pressure that has stabilised around 1020hPa
Dropping in Thredders, 2.6 @ 10pm, 1.3 @ 11pm now below 1. Fingers crossed to see some white in the morning
Sleeting @ Buller - more on my blog: http://aussieskier.com/index.php/2010/06/buller-snow-reportconditions-weekend-27-86/
My observation is that a lot of people believe it only snows at negative readings
Pouring in sawmill. Dropped 2 degrees at Eildon fire tower in 30 mins.
Still northerly wind at hotham and 2.5 degrees. Nearly 30mm has fallen out of the sky today, pity it wasn't just a bit colder.