Observations: 24th - 30th June 2010

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sinyk, Jun 24, 2010.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You dont need them [​IMG]
     
    #51 Vermillion, Jun 25, 2010
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  2. bdenny4

    bdenny4 One of Us

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    wet as all hell up here at DP
    All the snow is gooooorn (from DP)
     
  3. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont think anyone expected the rain to come in so heavy and early with the NWerly -
     
    #53 trappers, Jun 25, 2010
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  4. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Its raining steadily here in the Valley at Wandin East its also got quite dark. Its 12.2 in the city but still 9.5 at Mt Dandenong. the lapse rate is real cr@p right now with this northwester, Mt william 3.1 Mt Baw Baw 3.6 Hotham 2.1
     
  5. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will spam the forums, my blog, facebook and twitter when it goes white. But not before.
     
  6. choc

    choc One of Us

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    Only 6-7mm of rain in Thredbo since 9am officially. Seems like it has been more than that.
     
  7. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Speak for yourself!

    Maybe it's because I get to see the model forecasts in 3-hourly (or hourly) timesteps so I always had a good enough idea that the forecast precipitation was always a fair bit ahead of the forecast cold air.

    It makes a bit of difference when you can watch the forecast evolve on an hourly timeframe instead of just looking at images taken at 12-hourly intervals.
     
    #57 Rush, Jun 25, 2010
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  8. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    2C on the clock tower at Buller. Raining steadily but not pouring. I observe winds have gone SW at Laverton. I believe we will wake to some white - how much I don't know.
     
  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    None of the models (that I saw) showed the moisture with the NW, they all showed it with a W to WSW air stream ... have a look back at the charts posted in the predictions thread. I was looking at the 3hr charts on WZ and did not pick it up.
     
    #59 trappers, Jun 25, 2010
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  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    They did.

    BoM Forecast from Thursday:

    Friday
    Cloudy. Areas of rain from the late morning, falling as snow by the evening. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 40 to 55 km/h tending west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h later in the evening.

    All of the charts showed the majority of moisture falling by evening, with winds shifting Westerly by 10PM.
     
    #60 Stratus, Jun 25, 2010
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  11. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's going to have to drop at least 5 deg at Lake Mountain before it snows!
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mt William down to 1.8, down from 3 deg at 4.30
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warrnambol down 2C in the last hour.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not convinced the cold is through Warrnambool as the temps have varied between 10 and 12 all afternoon.
     
    #64 Claude Cat, Jun 25, 2010
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  15. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Mt Dandenong has dropped 2 degrees in an hour maybe the local effect of the heavy rain 15mm there now mostly in the last hour or so,7.5 there Melbourne 12.1. Still pouring out here.
     
  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Down another 0.5c last half hour, I think the start of the cold has passed through there now.

    Ballarat down a C in the last hour too.
     
    #66 Stratus, Jun 25, 2010
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  17. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

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    I observe that there doesn't seem to be much moister left though?
     
  18. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    youre observation is spot on! But possibly the cold air is comming so if it can dig in to the NW feed on the tail end which is still wll over the alps we could have a little snow by morning 5cm possible hopefully more and possibly less!
     
  19. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    1.8 @ Thredbo Top Station, between 2 and FIVE across Perisher.
    Way too warm atm
     
  20. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    Baw BAw has dropped 2.2 degrees in the last hour. It is 6.4 degrees on my verandah and I am 30k's east of Warrnambool
     
  21. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    its on!!!!! baw baw dropped 2deg in last 45min to be 1.3deg [​IMG]
    still a big band of rain to come [​IMG]
    10cm imo i reckon
     
    #71 doogasnow, Jun 25, 2010
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  22. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mt William now down to 1.
    I observe that there's not a lot of moisture showing on the radar from a line due north of Melbourne.
    [​IMG]
    Sat pic doesn't inspire a lot of follow-up IMO
     
    #73 Claude Cat, Jun 25, 2010
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  24. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Little moisture following the cold air (sat pic / radar backs this up). Baw Baw will be lucky to get 5cm, let alone 1cm...IMO. Sorry to be a pessimist.
     
    #74 Stratus, Jun 25, 2010
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  25. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Eildon down over 2C in the last hour. Buller should be feeling the temp drop soon (hopefully), but wont be enough to get into the negatives. A good two hours before anything white *possibly* starts falling. imo
     
  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everything was predicting this rain with little snow afterwards. And it has been very obvious on the satellite picture over the last 36 hours. Dense prefrontal cloud with absolutely no speckeled frog behind it. And BOM had it in thier forecast for the last 3 days at least.


    Anyway nothing to worry about. We have rain falling on zilcho base and we are going to get 1m between monday and thursday.
     
    #76 Snow Blowey, Jun 25, 2010
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  27. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Massive call there!
    Yes, r**n everywhere across the southeast currently, cold air only just starting to hit southern VIC
     
    #77 Miffy, Jun 25, 2010
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  28. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Why let a little rain spoil the overly optimistic prediction party. I find the straight BOM forecasts, in particular within 3 days is all I need. As for an observation, hardly a drop of rain in southern Tas today.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic ...
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw is cool, and WSW, but still not cold enough. There is still moisture around so there is hope for a 5cms or something.
     
  31. Dr_Cucumber

    Dr_Cucumber Hard Yards

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    Forgive my ignorance, but why is it warming up at Hotham? 1.6 to 2.6 degrees C in the space of three hours....I thought it was supposed to cool down.
     
  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    baw baw down to 0 or thereabouts.
     
  33. Hotham Yetti

    Hotham Yetti First Runs

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    same at falls. 2.4 to 3.4
     
  34. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    But Mt William showing a 'massive' drop in temps. From 1.8C at 5:30pm to 0.6C now.

    Cold air is there, moisture is............NOT / TOO <choose option> [​IMG]
     
    #84 woggybot, Jun 25, 2010
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  35. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FWIW I did think there would be rain prior to snow, I just didnt see the rain in the NW feed I thought the rain would have started perhaps 2 or 3 hrs ago ... seems I was wrong and misread the charts [​IMG]

    The second front is much more straight forward though [​IMG] That will be good [​IMG]
     
    #85 trappers, Jun 25, 2010
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  36. Hans

    Hans Hard Yards

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    Not worried,I will be skiing this time next week;)
     
    #86 Hans, Jun 25, 2010
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  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw may actually get a few good CM's, moisture is still around, temps are good.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be right there mate, that cold pool needs to move a little bit further north to get the other resorts though. It will be very wet whatever falls.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some heavy showers building at the back of the rainband, im getting hit hard as we speak. Could be a surprise or 2.
     
  40. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    baw baw imo with plenty of rain to hit over next few hours and temps -0.2 could easily pick up 10cm [​IMG]
     
    #90 doogasnow, Jun 25, 2010
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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I should also add if you look at the melbourne radar you can see the WNW/WSW collision to the SE of Melbourne clearly. This is what is most likely causing the backend of the rainband to build and the heavy showers.
     
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    WSW at 22:30 for Buller perhaps snow is not far away?
     
  43. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    Nice Accumulations happening at BAW BAW.
    time wind dir wndspd tmp dew pt rh fire rain
    Fri 23:00 EST WSW 22 35 -0.9 -1.0 -6.7 99 1 Low 18.0
    Fri 22:30 EST WSW 24 39 -0.4 -0.5 -6.3 99 1 Low 16.6
    Fri 22:00 EST WSW 24 37 -0.2 -0.3 -6.1 99 1 Low 15.4
    Fri 21:30 EST WSW 24 35 0.1 0.0 -5.7 99 1 Low 12.8
     
  44. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Temps have dropped at Thredbo by nearly 2C; currently around 0.8C.
    What has me worried is the pressure that has stabilised around 1020hPa [​IMG]
     
    #94 woggybot, Jun 25, 2010
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  45. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Dropping in Thredders, 2.6 @ 10pm, 1.3 @ 11pm now below 1. Fingers crossed to see some white in the morning
     
  46. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #96 CarveMan, Jun 25, 2010
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    My observation is that a lot of people believe it only snows at negative readings
     
  49. justride

    justride Hard Yards

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    Pouring in sawmill. Dropped 2 degrees at Eildon fire tower in 30 mins.
     
  50. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Still northerly wind at hotham and 2.5 degrees. Nearly 30mm has fallen out of the sky today, pity it wasn't just a bit colder.