Observations 28th Aug - 5th Sep

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by craigl56, Aug 28, 2009.

  1. craigl56

    craigl56 Hard Yards

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    We don't seem to have an obs thread - this one is a little longer dated than recent ones as I'll be down at thredders from the 3rd [​IMG]
     
    #1 craigl56, Aug 28, 2009
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  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    0.4 at Thredbo up high...
    Not as warm as I thought.
    13.6 about where the low is positioned right now..ie ceduna.
     
  3. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    20 degrees in Adelaide pressure dropping though
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah warm air wave affecting Adelaide.
    Not as bad as I thought
     
    #4 Donza, Aug 28, 2009
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  5. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The race is on!
     
  6. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Temp at Woomera dropped from 15.9 to 14.3 and less than 1mm of rain so far
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    True that

    and if it rains there is 50.5 wild brumby vodka...
     
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, lets take a look at some observations.

    12:30pm

    Adelaide: today 22.1 degrees, yesterday 15.3
    Coober Pedy: today 26.8 degrees, yesterday 23.8
    Mt.Gambier: today 15.9 degrees, yesterday 14.9
    Woomera: today 16.3 degrees, yesterday 23.2
    Ceduna: today 15.1 degrees, yesterday 22.4
    Nullarbor: today 14.9 degrees, yesterday 22.5


    Notice how central SA is still warm, & Adelaide is warmer than yesterday, but many places in south central SA and near the coast are 7 degrees cooler than yesterday!!!!

    Does this mean that colder air is infiltrating further than we had hoped it would, in the area of the low pressure trough?? we should be able to tell.
    I've marked a circle of approximately where the cooler air is. If it's consistent and moving east, then temperatures should drop in Adelaide, from those low 20s temperatures, to around 15 degrees around perhaps 3-5pm.
    If it does do this, I would feel a lot more comfortable in saying that there may not be as much rain on the snowfields as people had feared. (and more snow on Saturday, IMO)
    [​IMG]
     
    #8 Sandy, Aug 28, 2009
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  9. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    interesting obs there sandy. Port augusta dropped 4.5degrees between 12.30 and 1.30pm with the rain only just starting to reach there. Positive sign to me for something that is coming from the NW
     
  10. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    The issue is though as the front comes closer the winds will shift more N so the warmer air over NSW will be drawn down over the Alps. It looks like the temps will rise by about 3.5-4 degrees from where they are now. They going to have to come down quickly if it is to snow on Sat.
     
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, it's promising at least that there is a temperature change heading into the area that was expected to remain warm.

    And to give an idea of how close the warm air is/was Coober Pedy has jumped 2 degrees to 28.7 from 12:30 to 1:30pm
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sat loop sorta agrees with you Sandy, but IMO it has it sliding south more than tracking east.
     
  13. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Woomera Ap rose 2.1 degrees in the last hour or so with wind from NE.
     
  14. craigl56

    craigl56 Hard Yards

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    Hmmm, I thought this was observations not predictions... [​IMG]
     
    #14 craigl56, Aug 28, 2009
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  15. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    i wouldn't think that would be too big an issue as the rain had passed and the sun is out again?
     
    #15 SNJ, Aug 28, 2009
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  16. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    Don't know. Time will tell. NE wind will keep it nice and warm though.
     
  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temperatures rise druing the day, and inland there, it's not surprising.
    We need to keep and eye on when and where the cooler air comes in. I hadn't expected it to be so much cooler than yesterday in those places.
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To put that into context, yesterday, the temperature went from around 22 to 25 degrees between 12:00pm and 2:30pm. Today it's gone from 16 to 19.
     
    #18 Sandy, Aug 28, 2009
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  19. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    What i said guys, I've got fingers crossed, It is a great possibility that the predicted 1 Min °C Saturday night may in fact be -2 or lower.
    I saw a forecast just before predicting -4, that's a stretch but -2 -3 isn't out of the question.

    If this occurs and the cooler air is coming like we hope, we may be in for a surprise Sunday Morning.
    I'm praying that the rain does come if this forecast is true. They are very cautious also with their predictions, That's surprises me they are forecasting such a colder night Saturday.

    I take it
     
  20. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    They were predicting 26 at Woomera for today..19.5 at 2.30pm which is typically the warmest part of the day.
    edit
    the BOM has been crazy with its obs updates from SA today..very frustrating, BUT, I'd venture to say that Adelaide has reached its maximum which was 22 at 12.30..the change is in there already I'd reckon.
    Still game on.
     
  21. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    [​IMG]
     
    #21 Yamming, Aug 28, 2009
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  22. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    Yellow is of interest, top and bottom !!!
     
  23. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

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    Temps dont seem to be rising as the rain hits stations in SA and western Vic. And most of those places have recorded temp drops of 3 too 5 deg over the last few hours. With 2 at Buller and 0's at Hotham does that mean that we could be in luck? The winds over west are from the north as well.
     
  24. ackers

    ackers First Runs

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    I'm with craig on this one, where are the moderators? this is observations, preferably from the resorts. Predictions are on a different thread aren't they??
     
  25. ackers

    ackers First Runs

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    Anyway I observe that it's very warm in Melbourne tonight, I'm leaving for Buller soon so I'll observe from there when I get there but I'm not holding out much hope, because I observe that the season is finished, at least at Buller anyway. A non season I think.
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic. This is Observations.
     
  27. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    The cold front will cross the region on Saturday night bringing a colder
    mass of air that is likely to result in the rain turning to snow showers
    overnight Saturday and into Sunday with the snow level falling to around 1000
    meters by Sunday morning.
     
  28. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    there seems to have been little rain at Buller overnight. Very windy and typically foggy here but fingers crossed we don't get hammered too badly before the cold air arrives.
     
  29. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    It is raining pretty hard at Perisher. Wind is starting to pick up also. Not a nice day to be out there.
     
  30. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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    I 'observe' light rain now. The wind is not as hard yet and we did get a sprinkle of snow in the middle of the night.
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic. This is Observations.
     
    #31 The Plowking, Aug 29, 2009
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  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is a prediction, which goes in the Predictions thread. It is also an opinion so generally, you add "IMO".
     
    #32 Sandy, Aug 29, 2009
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  33. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Ok... that drenching rain we were supposed to get is moving south already! Most falls in Victoria outside the State's west were less than 5mm so far...
     
  34. craigl56

    craigl56 Hard Yards

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    I observe that there is a 28-35kph SW wind blowing at Port Fairy, this is good IMHO
     
  35. MBR

    MBR Hard Yards

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    Pouring rain here near geelong no wind and 5mm in the last half an hour, relatively warm though
     
  36. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Latest BoM synoptic chart suggests a SECOND front forming ahead of the first!

    [​IMG]

    Maybe the air will be cold earlier. It could also be the reason for all the progged precipitation...
     
    #36 ice_man, Aug 29, 2009
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  37. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    [​IMG]

    The 2 jet streams have increased speed overnight, this certainly will not harm our cause.

    Btw , only second day posting, give me a break !!

    Cold air will be coming before sunset IMO
     
    #37 Yamming, Aug 29, 2009
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  38. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    [​IMG]

    Cant complain about this chart, yesterday had 10 different outcomes, this is proberly up there with one of the better ones IMO
     
    #38 Yamming, Aug 29, 2009
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  39. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    The lower 2nd front you commented on Iceman, look behind that in the Sw at the bottom, solid mass forming. What will this input IYO mate.
     
  40. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDY03021.txt
    Wind direction for about 50 towns in all the states.

    A pattern is emerging with winds already shifting away from the Northern direction,a lot of Ely wind directions throughout Sa in the last hour or so. The cold air is already coming and IMO it will arrive earlier then 5pm, IMO wind changes 3.30pm in Vic, 4.00 pm NSW.
    If this southern front intensifies with the 2nd, IMO this will be a fun night.Time machine would be nice
     
    #40 Yamming, Aug 29, 2009
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  41. Annago

    Annago Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks like most of the precip has passed either side of the Vic resorts. Very lucky so far.
     
  42. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    bloody beautiful
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic!!!! but at least you are enthusiastic!
    Good to see someone posting maps with their forecasts, Yamming-some of us dont have the time.
    Raining here in Mordialloc, bayside.
    Hotham Temps
    2c at 8.30am dew point 1.7
    1.7c at 10am dew point 1.4c
    downward trend now perhaps
    Sober Plowking
     
    #43 The Plowking, Aug 29, 2009
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  44. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    Cool air coming, Vic fields will be good tonight IMO, Just have to wait and hope the NW winds in NSW Alpine changes in the afternoon and not to late into the night,I still think the Max on 7 will not be reached in Thedbo. IMO
    If later still okay but earlier the better. Give the rain a chance to top up mother natures good work last week.

    Any predictions guys on time of change in fronts.
     
  45. Yamming

    Yamming First Runs

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    #45 Yamming, Aug 29, 2009
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  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    According to the news on TV last night there will be snow down to 900m!!!
     
  47. Scholesy

    Scholesy First Runs

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    From the bom alpine weather warning "Mount Bulla has had a wind gust to 90km/h in the last few hours."

    Is that near Mount Buller?
     
  48. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    minimal rain here at Buller so far but very warm ATM. We've been very lucky so far IMO
     
  49. oreo

    oreo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [auto-censor] down all the way to the top with occasonial thunder at thredbo.
     
  50. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] I think some douchbag forgot how to spell.
     
    #50 smitty484, Aug 29, 2009
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