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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by craigl56, Aug 28, 2009.
BoM radar shows massive rain band heading for NSW resorts.
That solid mass near the bottom? Look at the chart I posted, it appears to be a third front way to the south. I am pretty sure that won't make it here. If it did we'd probably have snow in Melbourne. At the very least it's indicative of moisture in the SW feed.
Check out the Vic weather warnings: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV28000.shtml
Snow down to 800 metres tonight??? That is way colder than the models have been predicting for the past week!!!
i was taking the puss ice_man. It's going to be touch and go, mt william is still above 4C.
Heavy rain, wind and the lifts have closed due to lightning / thunder.
Its only light compared to predictions like 40 mm or more. 3 hrs and the cold will arrive, snow all night into tom.
The clouds are breaking up Skies are clearing from the far west behind the trough.
You can see broken cloud, it will be gone in an 2 hr or so IMO.
Heading to the coast., then comes the snow IMO
Well that would be douche bag, then
I observer a MSLP of 993 @ Green Cape, that is interesting. Perhaps an ECL may be developing?
On observing the latest sat pic, I see no sign of an ECL. Just lots of air flow streaming down from the NW. What's causing the low pressure? Descending expanding air??
I am observing very nice rain, thunder and some lightening at 1100m just outsdie Jindabyne. Its warm inside by the fire. I also observed very nice thick wet fog and drizzle at BC this morning. Like a fine young filly under the Wood Duck spell ........... it is getting wetter
Hasn't rained much in Thedbo, 6 mm today over 1800mt.Looking at this sat image, broken cloud and the cold fronts coming from the south very fast .
I said 4 aoclock the front would arrive, i stick to that. Also the 2.9 degrees at 2.12 will be as high as it goes.
Its just dropped 1/2 degree in thedbo as i posted the above chart. now 2.4 deg. I knew it, here comes the cold air !!!
Are you in Thredbo Yamming ?
Anywhere close ?
Tonight IMO will be pretty good, 10-15
Pfttt Cold air- Your dreaming!!!! Wont arrive till much later.... 10.30pm for mine. Damage is fairly severe in places too, Just had a storm cell go past. Thredders is showing 21mm. Might have been more. Antons might be closed for the season now. Smiggs looks just about unrepairable. Glad I had a ski on Wed and Thursday.
Still over 4C on Mt William.
I observed a comment just in from Dalgety "awesome lightening", "excellent rain" "pretty warm out"
Queensland mate, next week im there.I just spoke to a mate whos there,he said the rain has eased and its not that bad.
I saw the camera's and they looked alright.
Why do you ask Quack
It's cooler... but not cold yet. I think that front will be quite strong.
Jesus Christ NSW got belted so far, i was only looking at VIC cams but having a quick look over NSW has done far worse.
Im not sure how cold this cold air people are talking about really will be.
Cold in Hobart - 7deg, consistent light rain all day, alpine areas are 0 or below, and this is before the colder change arrives, so snow topup today looking good.
4.1C with 5mm since 9AM at Mt Bull! Ha!
Merely the colder air associated with the storm cell. It's up near 3 again now and we're getting slammed. But we'll make some back tonight.
Yeah, and look what's about to hit.
13 mm fallen on the summit, looking at sat images thedbo is on the edge of the rain band. The clouds have broken up west of thedbo, its running out of energy.The cold front will step in before dark.IMO
2.7 deg.The cams look alright and my mates skiing sayings its not that bad.
IMO it will pass in the next 2 hrs maybe 3, look at the southern front coming, 3 hrs and it will cool.
IMO maybe -2 tonight.
I observe that the word via duckphone from the Interceptor Hut is ............. "pussing down now" "lightening and thunder and lift shut downs".
all vic resorts still well above zero. Mt William also.
2.7 degress is not bad iceman, could be allot warmer. IMO 1 by 5.30pm
You are not in Thredbo are you Yamming ?
Mt William NEEDS to be below 4C for any chance of snow, and i like it to be below 3C for snow to 1500m-ish. No chance atm.
Im guessing you are, and im guessing what it's actually like in Thredbo is a lot different to the cams/radar.
I think he is in Queensland. All the optimism in the world is not going to stop the next 1hr of rain in NSW resorts.
Vic not the best but nowhere near NSW looking at this atm-will update
Colder air appears around Mt Gambier now.
8.9c, raining with thunder in Jindy.
I am not in Thredbo Verm but I can see it from where I sit ...........or I could see it if someone parted the shower curtain.
My PB Interceptor report was a simple phone call.
Its wet and its warm and it may get cooler and it might snow sometime in the future but the first 15cms will join the rush to the closest creek.
the temp outside my room is 10.8 degrees here in the village. cloud coming in and its raining, raining, raining.
So take your canoe style?
Thedbo is missing the big part of the rain band, as i said its on the edge and it will pass in a few hours, then tonight will fall as snow. Its hitting perisher and Jindibyne big time.
Remember we are making observations and the real question is snow.
IMO it will be cold enough tonight to snow
Take your canoe Vem and put Yammy in the front, you will be unsinkable.
Thredbo isn't missing anything except snow and PB is wete wete wet.
I observed 3 days of very nice skiing that turned to swampy duckness this morning
absolutely pouring at Buller now, just held off long enough for Jnr LTB to win the youth male division of the Abom (got the youth girls and prob most of the open women through too )
, I was thinking of you guys today. I was thinking, "its wet fog here" "I wonder what Buller is like". I skied Toppas ful length yesterday with brown bumps and white slush in between. Nice and warm and lots of fun but IT HURT.
Well done Jnr LTB. LTB must have some duck in him after all.
See you guys in Falls. Two event qualifications so far .............. bugger !!
Yes its raining. id prefer a zodiac btw.
Its now got beyond talking about, 15 mm, just hope some returns can be made.
Im sick of the charts, they really do suck sometimes.Maybe me mate also had a few drinks which is clouding his vision.
Tonight will tell how bad the loses are, im hoping atleast 10cm tonight and 5-10 tommorow.
Any opinions on snow fall in the next 48 hrs.
It might snow. I will check in the morning.
If it does it will be short lived, rain has cleared out where I am.
Sun here now out near the top of the range but looking bleak over the resorts still.
4 oclock i mentioned yesterday for it to bale, rains moved away.Watch the temperature come down. The cold fair is 2-3 hrs away.
wind just really picked up here in sydney after being fairly light for most of the day.
It was also a lot cooler this morning and overcast with the odd light shower.....but now the NW wind has picked up and it's feeling a lot warmer - don't know if it will crack 28 today though.....
Cooler air about to hit Geelong
stopped raining at Buller and temps slowly staring to drop
The old radar over the mountains scenario
I don't know, i hope it gets cold enough, should be dropping soon or maybe miss tonight.