Observations 29th June - 8th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by skiflat, Jun 28, 2009.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's massive AndDee!!! Thanks for posting that link, Gives us a great idea of what to expect! [​IMG]

    nearly 6 degrees in 1.5 hrs!!! [​IMG]

    What's the consensus as to whether it'll hold the moisture until it hits the resorts?? or is it likely to [auto-censor] a large proportion of it away over the wimmera/western Vic??
     
    #51 mick chopps, Jun 30, 2009
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  2. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    This is what we had ordered. Has just arrived in Mt Gambier so should be at the Vic border now. Should all happen overnight tonight.
    NSW looks as though the worst of the R^%$ is over but Vic has got a bit more to go. There are going to be some wet people at Mt Buller today.
     
    #52 Outlooker, Jun 30, 2009
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  3. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The models were fairly accurate with the warm Northwest feed impacting resorts at the moment, but it looks quite light and shouldn't affect the snowpack too much before the cold arrives.
    Great to see the North East and Riverina getting some rain over the past couple of weeks
     
  4. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The snowpack is essentially gone at Buller due to the rain and strong warm winds! Only a bit of snowmaking stuff left as that hangs around longer.

    3 degrees at Buller and raining still with 5mm so far
    2 degress at HotHam and raining still with 10mm so far

    The change has just gone through Mt Gambier as mentioned above!
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Falls seem to have fared ok out of this morning, with only 1.6 mm since 9am. Hopefully it stays that way!!
     
    #55 mick chopps, Jun 30, 2009
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  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah nice radar loop, but unfortunately that aint the cold air ...
    The temp drop you are seeing there (in ADL) is PARTLY because of the cooling effect of the rain ... if you look at Ceduna's temp, after the rain passes 9and the air gets over the initial cooling shock evaporating rain, the temp rebounds

    Still a fair bit of rain on the way before the really cold air (now about at the SA /WA border) hits ... so dont get to excited.

    BTW This temp graph of Hotham will update
    [​IMG]
    http://www.jamesh.com.au
     
    #56 trappers, Jun 30, 2009
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  7. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The super cold air is spinning around the Bight at the moment and is heading our way
     
  8. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I think the temperatures are reasonable considering its a Westerly Feed....although it could go either way. Good signs so far in my opinion.

    Fingers Crossed!
     
  9. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    i noticed that the moisture band has increased since last night, and the low looks like it moved a touch north (right over the nsw resorts)...

    i hope we see history here, imagine 80cms in 3 days! [​IMG]
     
    #59 T1G3R-4-L1F3, Jun 30, 2009
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  10. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Even if it isn't the really cold air if we are seeing a drop of 4-5degrees with the rain than wouldn't that put the higher resorts below 0 when it passes as they are sitting around the 2-4degree mark?
     
    #60 SNJ, Jun 30, 2009
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  11. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unfortunately it doesn quite work that simply, but it is close! The added moisture means the air wont cool quite so much, and although the moist adiabatic lapse rate is lower than the dry one, it is still about 1C per 150-200m which means that if it is 3-4C at the top of the higher resorts now (about 1700-1800m) a drop of 4C willonly bring the freeze level down to 1500-1600m ... not a huge benefit!

    That said, the cool air does seem to be coming through more quickly than i expected and Should hit much earlier on Thursday, maybe even Wednesday night.
     
  12. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Ah righty'o.
     
  13. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Think of it this way ... if the air is fully saturated with water (i.e. 100% humidity) then in a perfect atmosphere the temperature in Melbourne (i.e. sea level) would have to be about +8C for the temp at 1500m to be 0C ... if the air was dry then the temp in Melbourne would need only be 13C ... the reality will be somewhere in between those two numbers and of course the atmosphere never actually follows the adiabatic lapse rate, so it can vary a lot from those values. But that should give you an idea of why it isnt quite so simple!

    In general, if the Sealevel temp at Melb's latitude is 13C or below, then I generally assume snow down to at least 1600m. [​IMG]

    This is a plot of the Adiabatic lapse rate (both dry and moist)
    [​IMG]
     
    #63 trappers, Jun 30, 2009
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  14. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    [/quote]
    The temp drop you are seeing there (in ADL) is PARTLY because of the cooling effect of the rain ... if you look at Ceduna's temp, after the rain passes 9and the air gets over the initial cooling shock evaporating rain, the temp rebounds

    Still a fair bit of rain on the way before the really cold air (now about at the SA /WA border) hits ... so dont get to excited.

    BTW This temp graph of Hotham will update
    [​IMG]
    http://www.jamesh.com.au [/quote]

    Correct, "PARTLY", but also due to significantly cooler air. Some border area temps have dropped from 18-20 degrees down to 9-12 with little or in some cases no rain at all. This system seems to be moving fairly rapidly.
     
    #64 themaninblack, Jun 30, 2009
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  15. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    [/quote]
    The temp drop you are seeing there (in ADL) is PARTLY because of the cooling effect of the rain ... if you look at Ceduna's temp, after the rain passes 9and the air gets over the initial cooling shock evaporating rain, the temp rebounds

    Still a fair bit of rain on the way before the really cold air (now about at the SA /WA border) hits ... so dont get to excited.

    BTW This temp graph of Hotham will update
    [​IMG]
    http://www.jamesh.com.au [/quote]

    Correct, "PARTLY", but also due to significantly cooler air. Some border area temps have dropped from 18-20 degrees down to 9-12 with little or in some cases no rain at all. This system seems to be moving fairly rapidly.
     
    #65 themaninblack, Jun 30, 2009
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  16. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    3.3 degrees and raining at Buller

    LOTS more rain to come in my observations of the current radar
     
  17. robbied

    robbied First Runs

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    Bye bye snow
     
  18. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The primary Melbourne radar is down again! Says it will be down for 72 hours

    This is the 2nd time in the past week it has gone down

    GRRRRRRR

    Yes there is a backup one at Melbourne Aiport but always good to have the best equipment during a big storm like this
     
  19. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Have a squiz in the predictions thread. Bom updated the nsw forecast at 12.30pm
     
  20. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Temp at Nhill dropped 6.3 degrees in 2 minutes and barometer at 989.9 hPa. No precip registered at this stage. Winds gusting to 104k's. Pretty wicked.

    PS Andee, Yarrawonga is the best equipment for this.
     
  21. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    bye bye snow if your in victoria....the temperature in thredbo is about 2 degrees now with only 0.40mm of rain so far...about 4-6pm the temperature will begin to drop, i believe the snow will start to fall around 10pm tonight (in nsw)...starting to drop slightly now 1.8

    tomorrows top temps thredbo -1 (topstation), perisher +1....
     
  22. rodatthebay

    rodatthebay First Runs

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    Looking as say the Summit Chairlift Cam at Falls Creek using the Month time lapse on ski.com, you can see the loss of cover especially over the last 2 days. Lets hope we it will get back to at least where it was on the 14th.
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm pretty confidant we'll have no trouble getting back to that and more rod

    Keep in mind rod that that slope hasn't had any snowmaking on it (that I'm aware of, certainly not since June long weekend) and has been progressively loosing snow over the last 2-3 of weeks.
    Towers/Drovers and Ruined Castle are the key areas as they're the runs they've been trying to preserve for weeks! Fingers crossed they don't get washed away!
     
  24. Mattoman

    Mattoman Hard Yards

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    I'm fairly new to weather forecasting but im trying to follow the radar and temps for Perisher Valley.

    How accurate to time are the radars?

    Perisher is showing 5 degrees in the village which wouldn't be good for rain but the radar isn't showing any rain just yet.

    what does the 3:50, 4:10 & 4:20UTC that keeps changing mean down the bottom of the radar? is that the time of day? 4am?

     
  25. rodatthebay

    rodatthebay First Runs

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    Well Ive mad my decision to head to Victoria this year for part of the NSW school holidays and I hope I havent made the wrong decision.

    Observing those cams looks better but I also observe a lot of rain heading your way for the next couple of hours. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Fingers crossed the snow gods are good to us.
     
  26. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

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    The rain is in a line from Wagga to Melbourne. It will hit everywhere.
     
  27. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Still a bit of rain to come which is great for the farmers and not so good for us skiers.
    Good news is that colder temps are on the way. Renmark on the SA border droped 11.4 deg in 2 hours. The coldest air is well behind that in the bight. Resorts have a long way to drop before we see snow and still at least 12 hours away.
     
  28. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    I observe that Thredbo is being washed away and plenty more rain heading their way. 2.3 up the TOP! What a disaster.

    Thursday/Friday have to be huge...
     
    #78 Neslot, Jun 30, 2009
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  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't worry, it will be!!
     
    #79 mick chopps, Jun 30, 2009
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  30. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

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    Temperature in Mildura fell 7.5c since 2pm.

    There is a W/WNW change moving east of a line linking Warrnambool,
    Mt William and Ouyen.
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] that's what we want to hear!!

    Seems to be moving through a little faster then anticipated?! Hopefully it moves it's a@#e and gets to the resorts soon and limits the damage!!
     
    #81 mick chopps, Jun 30, 2009
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  32. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    Makes sense the jet stream is coming from the north west....look at the low 967! i just looked at the radar theres a heap of rain to the south west of victoria, temperatures fall!
     
  33. Kony_Abbott

    Kony_Abbott Hard Yards

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    Freaking warm here in Canberra ~16C at 3:30pm, those poor NSW fields!
     
  34. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

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    There wasn't much to start with at the bottom - don't worry.

    IMO.
     
    #84 Hobber, Jun 30, 2009
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  35. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Wind really picking up here in Jindy now. Gusts must be around 60-70kmph. The cloud has come over the mountain and it is looking quite apocoliptic from my office window at the moment.
     
  36. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Wind has really picked up in Jindy now... or has it been like this all day? Damn office

    Let's go with, it's very windy from the north west in Jindabyne right now. Wall of cloud over the mountains. Rain being blown from it.

    Classic, nasty, brilliant winter front weather
     
  37. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Some of this cold air is moving in quicker than expected as MC has highlighted. I reckon we could see a change in the mountains around 8.00 pm tonight. Snow level to around 1650m.
     
  38. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Any chance to get a pic of the mountains from Jindy? looking at the airlan cams looks like it is raining again(no shock)
     
  39. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personally, what I'm hearing from the +1 at Buller is that while it has been raining all day, it's nowhere near as bad as it could have been. It's windy and ugly but they've only had about 7 or 8 mm of rain since last night and not 25-30. All lifts closed.

    My gut feel is that if these systems stays on track, we will all be smiling come the end of the weekend.
     
  40. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Here you go SNJ - view from my place right now

    [​IMG]
     
    #90 wangster, Jun 30, 2009
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  41. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Cheers, looks nasty down there.
     
  42. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    Yeah - too nasty for me to walk down the road to get a better photo [​IMG]
     
    #92 wangster, Jun 30, 2009
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  43. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

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    WNW now at Ballarat and Bendigo. Not huge drops in temperature.
     
  44. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just came down from Perisher, wind was really picking up, and the first real rain for the day starting to hit.
     
  45. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    [​IMG] take your own advice from your blog and HTFU
     
    #95 SNJ, Jun 30, 2009
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  46. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    2.4mm of rain so far.... thredbo temp dropping down to 1.4 degrees (2.1 15mins ago)
     
  47. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    [​IMG]

    I was actually about to go for a walk and the rain hit. It's blowing in sideways now
     
    #97 wangster, Jun 30, 2009
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  48. SNJ

    SNJ One of Us

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    Not surprised! Probably the first time i have seen white caps visible on the Jindy cam.

    If i was down there i'd be staying inside as well but next to the fire with a bourban in hand.

    Be interesting to see what the morning brings.
     
  49. Odin749

    Odin749 Hard Yards

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    Just started raining in the inner city in Melbourne, looks like it is going to belt down for quick a while
     
  50. SnowAndrew

    SnowAndrew One of Us

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    Thanks to Mountainwatch we'll be able to observe through the night a bit - also i notice Perisher is due to have evening skiing tonight due to their email this morning, so the lights will be on - hopefully even better for observing!