The only block of ice out there is in the Eyre Cafe freezer. Top layer got nice and firm for a few days - but otherwise it's soft serve all the way to the ground.
Treading "water" is my forecast. But it could have gone bad - very bad - so we are lucky in some respects. Heaps of good snow still left all over the higher and better facing slopes of Perisher. Main issue is just how bad the ridge lines are this year making some BC access points a bit of a walk over the rocks.
I must say I'm very surprised by that, although the snow is holding up well in the higher areas at Perisher.
Yeah I have skied both PB and Tbow in the last couple of days, you wouldn't bother skiing the bottom half of Tbow at the moment, its pretty shiiite, but the top is good as it is at PB. Still rocks visible in both resorts that are not usually there in late Aug.
130.3 today I think it's close to time to find the winner. ..unless there is some ridiculous surprise coming 157.5 for the 25th Aug .. Gerg's model prediction looking pretty good he is ridiculously consistent with it.
27cm lost in the past week. I shudder to think what next week's measurement will look like. Apologies for the pessimism, but unless we get some cold fronts in the second half of September, I think even the higher resorts will struggle to stay open until the October long weekend. And even if they do, the terrain open will be very limited this spring if current trends continue. Sigh ...
I agree with that comment in context of last saturday / sunday. However, we have now lost all of the snow that fell friday (and more) and are below where we were in my opinion (speaking of 1800m plus at perisher)
It's a spoogefest out there... the only sound on windless wednesday... was gurgling, running, rushing water, all across the main range.
Consistent.............. I would bloody well hope so considering all he does is play the odds pretty well. Really its not hard to do what he does and yet some of you hold him up as some kind of oracle. Enough already.
yep and that is such a different picture to what we see at resort level but typical for this stage of the season
No what he does is build a mathematical model, and the model is pretty impressive in its performance.
I guess some of you are the easily impressed types. He does nothing outstanding really , same mathematical system he uses here can be, and has been, built for a variety of different applications but basically all the system does is play the most likely statistical outcomes , or playing the odds. Farmers/graziers use a series of remarkably similar systems to this for crop/stock forecasts just for an example and yes they too are predictably accurate as well. I think some of you need to broaden your horizons within this big bright world and then maybe the mundane wont impress you quite as much.
Whats not to like about it ? Guys like you gushing about it. Its really not that impressive to be honest.
No one has ever suggested that Gerg's model is unique. However Gerg has done something no one else has done, made a rigorous model, in his own time, to a remarkable standard. I'm looking forward to you sharing a more accurate model than Gerg's @Kelpieboy , or even to you identifying a more accurate model.
I actually like the way he is transparent with it, he has openly worked it through a number of iterations. He openly describes the data sets he uses and explains. why he uses them. He is pretty damn good with statistics...you should see what he does with election data.
There have been times when the peak depth has been very late, 1991 and 92 come to mind. They were both very big seasons.
I skied the basin in December one year back then? Must have been one of those years. They opened about half the run for thredbo club card members. Had to do it.
Yes 92 was a very late season and it reached a big peak depth at the end of Sept. NE Vic & Albury area weather conditions were very similar to now. Flooded rivers everywhere, the causeway between Albury & Wodonga was like an inland sea for a couple of months. They even found a dead monster Murray Cod in a big hole in the middle of a farm paddock when it all started drying up about November.
139.9cm Deepest for this time of year since 2012! No season extension though I don't get holidays until the week after closing
If they had taken the measurement last Thursday it could have been closer to 1.5m. The deep Creek and Three mile Dam readings are far more Indicative of ski resort base levels. Only Charlottes Pass is higher, as Perisher lowest point is 1605m. I would like to see what the year/depth trend of those reading are. Probably be an eye opener with regards to snow making and the longevity of the ski seasons of the future.
Bumped us back above this time last year but it may have already dropped back below with today's rain. Also, where has Gerg got to? He hasn't posted on his site for ages.
122.3 cm 27th sept and gerg can be found on twitter @Gergyl and http://gergs.net/ as to why he doesn't post here anymore I can only speculate..best ask him yourself.
