Observations: Spencer's Creek Depth 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Lady Penelope, Jun 23, 2016.

  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The only block of ice out there is in the Eyre Cafe freezer. Top layer got nice and firm for a few days - but otherwise it's soft serve all the way to the ground.
     
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  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Straight to the bottom with zero résistance-apx 1900m between eyre and international
     
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  3. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Being an optimist I'm looking at that photo and thinking at least it must be 1.5m deep :)
     
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  4. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    If those were my poles you could only say 115cm deep
     
  5. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deep creek is in but still waiting on SC. May not be up as much as folk were hoping I suspect.
     
  6. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Treading "water" is my forecast. But it could have gone bad - very bad - so we are lucky in some respects. Heaps of good snow still left all over the higher and better facing slopes of Perisher. Main issue is just how bad the ridge lines are this year making some BC access points a bit of a walk over the rocks.
     
  7. RegGrundys

    RegGrundys Hard Yards

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    142cm my prediction
     
  8. Roarkie

    Roarkie Addicted

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    Numbers in, 157.5 cm.
     
  9. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I must say I'm very surprised by that, although the snow is holding up well in the higher areas at Perisher.
     
  10. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I have skied both PB and Tbow in the last couple of days, you wouldn't bother skiing the bottom half of Tbow at the moment, its pretty shiiite, but the top is good as it is at PB. Still rocks visible in both resorts that are not usually there in late Aug.
     
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  11. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    130.3 today
    I think it's close to time to find the winner. ..unless there is some ridiculous surprise coming
    157.5 for the 25th Aug ..
    Gerg's model prediction looking pretty good
    he is ridiculously consistent with it.
     
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  12. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    27cm lost in the past week. I shudder to think what next week's measurement will look like. Apologies for the pessimism, but unless we get some cold fronts in the second half of September, I think even the higher resorts will struggle to stay open until the October long weekend. And even if they do, the terrain open will be very limited this spring if current trends continue. Sigh ...
     
  13. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Even after the last few days of 8c plus maximums we have a raise up to 133cm (up 3 cm)
     
  14. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Hard Yards

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    thats incredible
     
  15. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    That friday into saturday event last week did put down a fair bit of snow up high.........
     
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  16. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I did mention in another thread I though Sunday up high was as much snow as I had seen all season.
     
  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next week could be up on this week too...
     
  18. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree with that comment in context of last saturday / sunday. However, we have now lost all of the snow that fell friday (and more) and are below where we were in my opinion (speaking of 1800m plus at perisher)
     
  19. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a spoogefest out there...
    the only sound on windless wednesday... was gurgling, running, rushing water, all across the main range.
     
  20. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Consistent.............. I would bloody well hope so considering all he does is play the odds pretty well. Really its not hard to do what he does and yet some of you hold him up as some kind of oracle. Enough already.
     
  21. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep
    and that is such a different picture to what we see at resort level
    but typical for this stage of the season
     
  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No what he does is build a mathematical model, and the model is pretty impressive in its performance.
     
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  23. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which is alot more than just looking at models and going on the vibe.
     
  24. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I guess some of you are the easily impressed types. He does nothing outstanding really , same mathematical system he uses here can be, and has been, built for a variety of different applications but basically all the system does is play the most likely statistical outcomes , or playing the odds. Farmers/graziers use a series of remarkably similar systems to this for crop/stock forecasts just for an example and yes they too are predictably accurate as well. I think some of you need to broaden your horizons within this big bright world and then maybe the mundane wont impress you quite as much.
     
  25. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So what is not to like about it then?
     
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  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Whats not to like about it ? Guys like you gushing about it. Its really not that impressive to be honest.
     
  27. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    No one has ever suggested that Gerg's model is unique. However Gerg has done something no one else has done, made a rigorous model, in his own time, to a remarkable standard.

    I'm looking forward to you sharing a more accurate model than Gerg's @Kelpieboy , or even to you identifying a more accurate model.
     
  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I actually like the way he is transparent with it, he has openly worked it through a number of iterations.
    He openly describes the data sets he uses and explains. why he uses them.
    He is pretty damn good with statistics...you should see what he does with election data.;)
     
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  29. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    2 gushers identified..........................move on ........................pointless really. :out:
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not half as pointless as the gerg bashing ;)
     
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  31. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back on topic ... Latest reading is in: 114.7cm.
     
  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Figured they would get in early. Today wasn't going to be ideal.
     
  33. Normo

    Normo Mostly Harmless Ski Pass: Gold

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    What chance next week will produce the season high reading? There's stuff happening! :)
     
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  34. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would seriously mess with the heads of the modellers and statisticians!
     
  35. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    They spend their lives trying to make sense of Chaos. Their heads are messed already :)
     
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  36. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There have been times when the peak depth has been very late, 1991 and 92 come to mind. They were both very big seasons.
     
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  37. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I skied the basin in December one year back then? Must have been one of those years. They opened about half the run for thredbo club card members. Had to do it.
     
    #137 Nidecker, Sep 15, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2016
  38. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Think it was 92, I was there being a 7 year old rat kid.
     
  39. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    Yes 92 was a very late season and it reached a big peak depth at the end of Sept. NE Vic & Albury area weather conditions were very similar to now. Flooded rivers everywhere, the causeway between Albury & Wodonga was like an inland sea for a couple of months. They even found a dead monster Murray Cod in a big hole in the middle of a farm paddock when it all started drying up about November.
     
  40. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    139.9cm
    Deepest for this time of year since 2012!
    No season extension though
    I don't get holidays until the week after closing
     
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  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    and it was taken on Monday!
     
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  42. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    139.9 ... Again, a very surprising result.
     
  44. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    If they had taken the measurement last Thursday it could have been closer to 1.5m.
    The deep Creek and Three mile Dam readings are far more Indicative of ski resort base levels. Only Charlottes Pass is higher, as Perisher lowest point is 1605m. I would like to see what the year/depth trend of those reading are. Probably be an eye opener with regards to snow making and the longevity of the ski seasons of the future.
     
  45. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

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    Bumped us back above this time last year but it may have already dropped back below with today's rain.

    Also, where has Gerg got to? He hasn't posted on his site for ages.
     
  47. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    122.3 cm 27th sept
    [​IMG]
    and gerg can be found on twitter @Gergyl
    and http://gergs.net/

    as to why he doesn't post here anymore I can only speculate..best ask him yourself.
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Shit we might hit 200cm.
     
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  49. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    a gain of 50cm + this late will be in pretty lonely territory.
    [​IMG]
     
  50. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be interesting....