Observations: Spencer's Creek Depth 2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Lady Penelope, Jun 23, 2016.

  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    pelting down in perisher - probably still wet snow. but still cold enough at spencers slope to be building something quite surprising.
     
  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Three Mile is in Oct 4
    9.3cm..
     
  3. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Almost certainly gonna be peak 'season' depth at SC (so far), surely...

    But can't quite see it being 2m.
     
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  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    It will be very close, I'm tipping somewhere between 180cm and 190cm
     
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  5. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm tipping a little lower, 170-175cm. A lot of rain after warm day on Sunday and can't help but think that with only Tuesday night/Wednesday morning providing temps well below 0, some snow was still being lost underneath during much of the last week.

    Snowcams make me think deeper, but I'm going to put that down to lack of consolidation of Tuesdays drier snowfalls.
     
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  6. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    170.5 cm October 6. First October peak on record I think...didn't quite make the 50cm between readings
     
  7. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    Its in, 170.5cm.....!
     
  8. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No deep ck though.
     
  9. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Deepest for this time of year since 1996.
    (Just pipping the 2000 chart).
    That's 20years! Wow!
     
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  10. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    They probably can't find it!
     
  11. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can vividly recall skiing October LWE 1996 and marveling at how much there was left to play on.
     
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  12. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    3rd Oct 1996 at 254 cm....... W
     
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  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was skiing drifts on kossie boxing day 1992... Maybe a chance this year
     
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  14. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it was courtesy of a 3 day dump at the beginning of Sep that delivered a metre of goodness, including snow on the hills above Wollongong. Then another 40cm a week or so later, and then the LWE was a blizzard too. Was a cracking year after a very slow start.
     
  15. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    1981 I was skiing Mt P in the 3rd weekend in October. Eyre was running in a trench that was over head high in places.
     
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  16. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Oct 8th 1992
    235.9cm
     
  17. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Splitting hairs maybe but above discussion is re first PEAK in Oct and '92 peaked in Sept... W
     
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  18. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    And not just an October peak, but a post-season-end peak.Absurd!!
     
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  19. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some states don't even run lifts in October! (Tequila anyone!)
     
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  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep , i misread 96, this is the second october peak.. ;)
     
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    October peaks are not uncommon in the historical record.
     
  23. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Here is a list of October peaks ;)

    1957 - 151.4cm on 2nd Oct
    1962 - 212.cm on 8th Oct
    1968 - 307.1cm on 4th Oct
    1970 - 280.7cm on 1st Oct
    1971 - 206.5cm on 5th Oct
    1996 - 254.2cm on 3rd Oct
    2016 - 170.5cm on 6th Oct!!!
     
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  24. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    2nd latest peak!
     
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  25. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    The second lowest October peak also:D

    Had a browse through the charts myself and there were quite a few late Sept peaks too!
     
  26. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unusual looking Spencers Creek chart. Just for shits n gigs I compared against 2006, the lines in the last couple of weeks are almost mirror images of each other.

    [​IMG]
     
  27. Snowies

    Snowies One of Us

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    I can understand your 'criticism', but Gerg is pretty transparent about the limitations and the methodology of his model. You're correct that it it plays the most likely statistical outcomes - most regression models do, unless the model explains all or nearly all of the variation in the observed data.

    Probably the 4 key points for me would be

    1. Does the model out perform 'climatology' i.e. if I took the average peak depth (over a given time frame) and used that as the prediction, can/does Gerg's model out perform that to a level of statistical significance. He may have already demonstrated that it does.

    2. With nothing else to guide us we often assume that things will conform to somewhere near the average, what we really want to know is when things will deviate from average. So ideally a regression model will predict the really bad and the really good seasons, with a middling R2 value the model doesn't explain enough of the variation to do it consistently.

    3. Does it matter? a prediction of peak depth still doesn't tell us when that peak will occur or what the rest of the season will look like, aside from the underlying assumption that a higher peak depth = higher average cover over the season and possibly, therefore a longer season.

    4. Given we know the standard deviation we have a fair idea of Gergs likely accuracy. He has a 1 in 3 chance of being within 22cm either way of his prediction and a 2 in 3 chance of being with 44cm either way. A prediction of 160 plus or minus 44cm is the difference between a poor season (116cm) an average season (160cm) and a pretty good season (204cm). Looking at it another way, using Gerg's model, with a prediction of 160cm theres a 1 in 10 chance of exceeding 215cm and a 1 in 10 chance of being lower than 103cm, but only a 1 in a 100 chance of exceeding 245cm. Often when a model has a high Standard deviation (in the context of what is being modelled) predictions are better expressed as a probability.
     
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  28. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Three Mile Dam measurement is in.
    Who predicted 0.0cm?
     
  29. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow for most of next week up high
     
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  30. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    141.0cm this week. Still running ahead of any year back to 1996 for mid October, slightly ahead of 2009, 2003 and 2000. Given light snow seems likely next Monday-Thursday will probably stay ahead of these years for another week at least.

    As good as the October cover up high is this year, it's not a patch on 1996 and 1990-1992. Those were the days! Also notable that some of those recent good late seasons mentioned above (2003 and 2000) had much better late season cover at the lower elevation Deep Creek and Three mile stations. To be expected given the warm, wet winter.
     
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  31. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears still maintain that measurements taken at Spencers Creek are somewhat misleading....
    we would like to see Happy Jacks Plain Snow Cover used as the bench mark to judge the magnitude of a Snowy Mts Winter...:emoji_disappointed:
    Bears want to see measurements taken from Brooks Hut Area...
     
  32. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    It's in!

    134.8cm

    Crazy!
     
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  33. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Deepest for this time of year since 1992
     
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  34. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Beating 1996 now for depth at this time of year, have to go back to 1992 for better. Just a smidgeon behind both 1991 and surprise surprise 1981. Given both 1991 and 1981 were thawing rapidly at this time of year yet we have snow forecast for Saturday and charts indicating a chance of snow next Wednesday/Thursday (even if just a dusting and a cool down slowing the thaw for a day or two) than it is feasible come this time next week Spencers Ck will have a deeper snow depth than both of these years. Never gonna beat out 1992 though or even 1990, there's no matching that late season depth in recent decades!
     
  35. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same time last year it was 0cm. Wow.
     
  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    When was the last time a drift lasted all summer through to winter?
     
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  37. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    How big is a drift?
     
  38. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it was @Townsend told me that either she, or someone she knows, skied a drift every month of a year. But was it a drift, or a patch?!
     
  39. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What ever you call it, when it grows up it wants to be a glacier.
     
  40. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    1981 may have been on the melt at this time of the year but it was an (dare I say it) epic year. Interestingly, 1982, which was terrible, was skiable at FC all season through until (and past) the October long weekend. Out the back it was really very good that weekend, even if it had been a rock-hopping season. Snowfall numbers by themselves are not always a good indicator of the amount of fun you can still have!
     
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be it a patch or a drift does not matter to the question in general - I've seen plenty of patches left in late January - but so far none in March from the previous season. I read somewhere the drift along the ridge leading up to Mt K actually has a name - and many decades ago would sometimes last all summer through to the first snowfalls the following year. I assume it generally takes a lack of rain following a big winter to stop a complete melt.
     
  42. BillyKidd

    BillyKidd One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    You can get quite large drifts on the shaded side of Feathertop ...well into December often.
     
  43. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will be interesting to see this year. Will be fun to walk around the main range over summer. The last few years there have just been a few drifts which hung on till new years.
     
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  44. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can attest to the fact that that drift was there in mid late 70s. in Mid Jan.... If I could be bothered going through my dads old slides I know there are photos of it from then. We did drive nearly all the way to Kosi at the time :)
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jan 17, 2013 - just before that 50C heat wave struck the east coast

     
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  46. Egbert

    Egbert One of Us

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    Walked to Kosi late March one year (probably 1992) and there was still several large patches of snow around. Lots of flies, as well.
     
  47. StuckinQld

    StuckinQld Addicted

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    There was definitely that drift on the side of Kosci in early January 2014 (I think). Ive also got another drift in mind tat you see as you are walking to Kosci from Thredbo, just up on the lefthand side. I did a walk up there in what I thought might be March 1993 and recall a drift being there.
     
  48. StuckinQld

    StuckinQld Addicted

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    Pretty sure this is what I have seen. Ive got photos of it, its just pinning down the date. I was somewhere doing my VCE and did a little project on the Snowy Scheme, so mum and I did a day trip to the Murray 1 power station, and hiked kosci in the arvo, coming down in the dark!
     
  49. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Addicted

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    I remember camping on what I think was Rose river below Mt Buffalo over the Christmas Holidays as a 10 year old in 1992 and when we got there I remember there was still plenty of snow on it as it was the first time I had seen snow like that.
    I remember the water was freezing and flowing pretty well for that time of year.
     
  50. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    You have to look close but these patches of snow survived until at least the 19th of April 1993. This was along the ridge near Mt Kosciuszko.

    [​IMG]
     
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