Predictions October 3rd - 5th

Open to being ridged out, but given the anomalies progged over the next 96 hours we'll need Thursday's system to clear before it's a consideration IMO.

 

A much different front to Thursday's beast IMO
Cold and heavy IMO
Let's see how the beast moves through the bight before jumping to any major conclusion about this one.

 

Dis. But I wouldnt write off anything this spring.

 

Yr.no is off its nut, forecasting ~80mm for Perisher on tuesday/wednesday?

 

Same for Vic... What are the chances of Falls creek extending season?

 

Probably not

 

Can't see it happening TBH.
Likely good rainfall Monday morning ahead of this little number.

 

Except a stable high pressure. Bloody hell.

 

Last spring it wasnt even a discussion of when to go out for a fish, any day was good. This year, it's which few hours are the least windy for us to go out in. Nuts.

 

Oh go on GFS give us a cm...

 

^^ Double whammy, although probably mostly the clear stuff in the first band.

 

Where do you buy high pressures

 

From the Southern Indian Ocean

 

They must be a high price this year.

 

This high is not very convincing. Still ridging and windy enough. Want the high more centered further south

 

Goid year for planting.

 

I would like 4-5 days worth please, in a row.

 

I'm sure October will deliver for you.

 

After 11th Oct should be good

 

Too high.

 

Hoping my knee is too.
Like to get up at least once this season.
1st ever no ride calender year since.....1994

 

Cold and moisture rich.

 

Yep.
This Adelaide system is more an epic weather event.
Should still deliver though.

 

12z harsh conditions.

 

Tasty... maybe next Tuesday or Wednesday for best day of season.

 

Would have been nice a few weeks ago.

 

I think I'm bailing on trying to ski or bike tour this long weekend, weather is too much IMO. Looking at late next week now.

Snowy River Extreme whitewater kayak race is on the lower snowy this Sunday. My forecast for the Sydney Students Kayaking group was that conditions are looking "epic to terrifying".

 

if the FL was a tad lower on Monday morning....
as it is MR looks to be in for an impressive 7 days from today.

 

This season is officially ridiculous

 

Yr no totals - Mount Kozzy are up to over 70cm . Surely not.

 

And that is a downgrade the 7 day accumulation was over a metre a few days ago.

 

I was thinking... "Alaskan"!

 

Looking massive for resorts in the upper-reaches from Mon through Wednesday on GFS 00Z run.
Main front passing early Monday morning. Timing dependent, places like Bogong could see a foot of snow by daybreak.

Hotham & Falls will do well.


Winds will be chronic come Monday night.


Potential storm total

 

Early hours Monday has been wavering a bit temp wise, it doesn't need to drop much for big totals. Conversely if it doesn't drop then we are looking at a lot of undesirable precipitation at pretty damaging rates.. Given the surface is unlikely to be very resilient.

 

Snow down to 1800m as the front passes IMO. Falls down to 1400m by 7/8am.

 

so are we talking prefontal in the resorts (perisher) in the early morning monday followed up snowfalls during the day, through to wednesday? thinking about a trip up on monday,

 

Pre frontal Sunday night to Monday ~3am in the resorts likely IMO. Peaks and MR should see snow from maybe as early as midnight Monday IMO.