Predictions October 3rd - 5th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Sep 26, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    But wait, you also get another dumper between the 3rd & 5th ...
    (IMO)

    [​IMG]

     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Open to being ridged out, but given the anomalies progged over the next 96 hours we'll need Thursday's system to clear before it's a consideration IMO.
     
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  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    A much different front to Thursday's beast IMO
    Cold and heavy IMO
    Let's see how the beast moves through the bight before jumping to any major conclusion about this one.
     
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  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Dis. But I wouldnt write off anything this spring.
     
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  6. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    Yr.no is off its nut, forecasting ~80mm for Perisher on tuesday/wednesday?
     
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  7. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Same for Vic... What are the chances of Falls creek extending season?
     
  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Probably not
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Can't see it happening TBH.
    Likely good rainfall Monday morning ahead of this little number.
     
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  10. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Except a stable high pressure. Bloody hell.
     
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  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Last spring it wasnt even a discussion of when to go out for a fish, any day was good. This year, it's which few hours are the least windy for us to go out in. Nuts.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Oh go on GFS give us a cm...
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  16. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    ^^ Double whammy, although probably mostly the clear stuff in the first band.
     
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  17. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Where do you buy high pressures
     
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    From the Southern Indian Ocean
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    They must be a high price this year.
     
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  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This high is not very convincing. Still ridging and windy enough. Want the high more centered further south

    [​IMG]
     
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Goid year for planting.
     
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  24. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    I would like 4-5 days worth please, in a row.
     
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    I'm sure October will deliver for you.
     
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  26. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    After 11th Oct should be good
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Too high.
     
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  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Hoping my knee is too.
    Like to get up at least once this season.
    1st ever no ride calender year since.....1994
     
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  29. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Cold and moisture rich.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Could actually deliver more snow than this weeks system IMO
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yep.
    This Adelaide system is more an epic weather event.
    Should still deliver though.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yeh, the current system will be more epic, however the winds are so strong it will limit the amount of rainfall IMO.
     
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  33. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    12z harsh conditions.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks solid.
     
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  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Tasty... maybe next Tuesday or Wednesday for best day of season.
     
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  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  37. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Would have been nice a few weeks ago.
     
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  38. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    I think I'm bailing on trying to ski or bike tour this long weekend, weather is too much IMO. Looking at late next week now.

    Snowy River Extreme whitewater kayak race is on the lower snowy this Sunday. My forecast for the Sydney Students Kayaking group was that conditions are looking "epic to terrifying".
     
  39. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    if the FL was a tad lower on Monday morning....
    as it is MR looks to be in for an impressive 7 days from today.
     
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  40. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  41. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    This season is officially ridiculous
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yr no totals - Mount Kozzy are up to over 70cm :eek:. Surely not.
     
  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    And that is a downgrade the 7 day accumulation was over a metre a few days ago.
     
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  44. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    I was thinking... "Alaskan"!
     
  45. dr80

    dr80 Well-Known Member
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking massive for resorts in the upper-reaches from Mon through Wednesday on GFS 00Z run.
    Main front passing early Monday morning. Timing dependent, places like Bogong could see a foot of snow by daybreak.

    Hotham & Falls will do well.
    [​IMG]

    Winds will be chronic come Monday night.
    [​IMG]

    Potential storm total
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Early hours Monday has been wavering a bit temp wise, it doesn't need to drop much for big totals. Conversely if it doesn't drop then we are looking at a lot of undesirable precipitation at pretty damaging rates.. Given the surface is unlikely to be very resilient.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Snow down to 1800m as the front passes IMO. Falls down to 1400m by 7/8am.
     
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  49. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    so are we talking prefontal in the resorts (perisher) in the early morning monday followed up snowfalls during the day, through to wednesday? thinking about a trip up on monday,
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Pre frontal Sunday night to Monday ~3am in the resorts likely IMO. Peaks and MR should see snow from maybe as early as midnight Monday IMO.