Predictions October 3rd - 5th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Sep 26, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks epic



    IMO prefrontal rain to late morning on Monday, then snow right through to late Wednesday - although the snow level will vary between 1200m and 1600m
     
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  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    4-5am for NSW resorts 1800m
    7-8am for 1400m everywhere
    [​IMG]
    Small periods of 1300m IMO.
    [​IMG]
    AXS looks tasty for fresh snow. Could do with another daytrip....
     
    #52 Jellybeans1000, Sep 30, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2016
  3. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  5. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Amplitude of the front is solid for OCT. Sustained sub-1002hPa over the alps wreaks of good falls. Cold air suffice after early Monday morning.
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, North Central, Wimmera and parts of the Northern Country and North East Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:42 pm Saturday, 1 October 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    Strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to reach western Victoria late Sunday afternoon, crossing central parts of the State Sunday evening and the east early Monday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are expected to develop on Sunday morning about parts of the Wimmera, South West, Central and North Central districts then extend to parts of the Mallee, Northern Country and Northeast during the afternoon.

    These Winds are expected to push further into elevated parts of eastern Victoria Sunday night but will moderate in the west.

    HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible later in the afternoon and evening over the same districts. This is mostly in association with the cold front but thunderstorms may also occur just ahead of the front.

    Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

     
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  8. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This system could have large potential IMO
    20-50cm is a reasonable number.
    Wednesday could be great for BC conditions.
     
  9. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member
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    Temps cold enough from around 9am Monday morning for snow throughout all resort areas, plentiful moisture, pressures 1000-1005hpah for most of event, multiple embedded fronts from W/SW direction over 2-3 days. This would have been perfect in the last week of August!
     
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  10. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    August was MIA, must have slept in and turned up 4 weeks late
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Have to mention it, there will be rain!!
     
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  12. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    BOM thinks warmish throughout
     
  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    looking like another cold snow snap


    [​IMG]
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC/YrNo throwing it all on black with this one. If this verifies, Main Range will be at it's season-peak for sure come Thursday's reading.
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS now in-line with EC in terms of cold air arrival tomorrow AM. Snow in the resorts by around mid morning.
    Maybe 25-35mm of pre-frontal, 1900m FL falling to ~1400m by Monday eve. 30-40cm storm total IMO.
     
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  16. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Odd we turned up and got 30cm of snow overnight, some are just lucky..
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    A clearing high spotted on Access R . Finally.

    [​IMG]

    Lots of speckle on satellite too.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  19. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    You should add this bit:
    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A cold front embedded in a vigorous westerly airflow will rapidly cross Victoria on Tuesday.

    DAMAGING WINDS averaging 50 to 60 km/h with gusts to around 95 km/h are expected to develop on Tuesday morning over the South West, North Central, Wimmera and parts of the Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts. The winds are most likely to occur in association with showers and thunderstorms and also at higher elevations and along the exposed coast.
    :)
     
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  20. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
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    With those strong winds, and given the saturated ground coupled with all the rain from yesterday/last night/this morning, there could be quite a few trees toppling over. My folks have lost a few in recent days, including a particularly large blue gum.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Embedded trough sitting SSW of Adelaide in the bite looks like it will be the dominant feature for the alps tomorrow.
    10am-3pm will host some heavy falls IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  22. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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  23. Majikthise

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  24. Boodwah

    Boodwah Dedicated Member
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    Would be all gone by the next day... very pretty while it lasts tho.