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Predictions Opening weekend forecast.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, May 31, 2014.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well it look like the chance of natural snow falling before next weekend is slim to non-existent. With rain clearing up later this week, a high pressure system will pass over South Eastern Australia into the opening weekend.

    Lets hope the high will allow for some cold nights and snow making will prevail :cool:
     
    #1 Stratus, May 31, 2014
    Last edited: May 31, 2014
  2. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    To be honest Stratus it amazes me that Australian resorts reckon they can get up and running every year by the second Saturday in June. I get that the Queen's Birthday holiday weekend provides a powerful marketing opportunity (and also that you have to draw a line in the sand and start sometime) but the fact is here in NZ we can't even really manage to get Coronet Peak off the ground by that date anymore. Almost all NZ ski areas will open towards the end of June (with varying degrees of success) and some will open in July and we're 1,300 kms closer to the Antarctic.
     
    #2 ScottGN, May 31, 2014
    Last edited: May 31, 2014
    Stratus likes this.
  3. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    draw a line in the sand, but not the snow eh? LOL
     
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  4. JoeKing

    JoeKing Old n' Thrusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be hope for my mud wrestling enterprise yet!

    Alright. Alright. I'm going. :out:
     
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  5. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    there is nothing on the charts at all ! . its quite rare that we havn,t had a system at all to talk about maybe producing something so far this season ... its saving itself up for July hopefully
     
  6. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's what happened to us a couple of years ago. Not a snowflake fell on the Southern Lakes in June 2011, CP opened with toothpaste like strips of manmade on June 26 and then it started snowing at the end of the first week of July and it didn't really stop until midway through August.
     
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  7. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    That would've been 2008. June that year was characterized by warm NWlys and stormy weather at times. August 10 that year was the last time I saw snow settle on Mt Dandenong.
     
  8. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Opening weekend forecast is that it won't be.
     
  9. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like the first time in years with no lift at all. Last year I went mtb'ing, but still had a couple of runs down a smooged out death ribbon on FF at the end. This year there aint no piles to smooge. Its been a record breaking month, and its the minimums that did it.

    Now I just hope for decent weather, to enjoy the festivities.
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    A glimmer of hope for snow in this mornings access run and gfs run for sat snow
     
  12. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Pineapple express from Noumea according to Access-G on the Tuesday though:
    [​IMG]
     
  13. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Little more than a cm or two, but it will be nice for sightseeing.
     
  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    BoM optimistic for snow showers next weekend from a developing ECL.

    That would be interesting....
     
    #15 Stratus, Jun 1, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2014
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    GFS this arvo.
    boom
     
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that scenario reminiscent of opening weekend 2006?
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Boom what? Looks shite to me.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, too much southerly and SE for my liking. The 2006 system was different. In 2006 ECL was spawned from an inland low. But from memory system flicked in moisture from the SE and thredbo did very well.

    Beats a 10 day chart of blocking high action though.
     
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  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Was more thinking nsw love...and heater on. Wollongong will be freezing
     
  21. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    So pack the down coat and leave the ski pants at home...?
     
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  22. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    thinking of heading to buller or falls this weekend just for some nice food and maybe a hike, ski gear wont be needed im feeling unfortunately :(

    might even venture as far as thredbo who knows. need to get away for a weekend n feel that nice mountain air
     
  23. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Predicting snow from ECL's is like trying to introduce driver-less cars throughout Australia.

    Pointless (and stupid)
     
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  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Was moreso cold air
     
  25. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Ok, neither pointless or stupid - but quite risky. All about the timing. Nothing to lose though!
     
  26. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Whoa am I seeing things .just looked at access charts .ecl gone with a tropical cyclone forming mid next Week.
     
  27. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Access is confusing me
    Spag still looking interesting for Sunday/Monday .
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC GFS runs. Still a chance of a dusting, perhaps 5cm? IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  29. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Hopefully!

    AXS now kind of getting on board with what GFS was suggesting.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Temps look ok IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No ECL on the latest runs too.
     
  32. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    This means might be a good turnout for Melbourne football fans on Monday
     
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  33. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    Not sure why some of the resorts have not put in one of the IDE all weather snow making machines like they have at Zermatt and Pitztal http://nieveyalgomas.blogspot.hk/2012/09/pitztal-ide-all-weather-snowmaker.html

    [- ADMIN NOTE: - link to ide-snowmaker.com flags as virus warning, it is possible their site has been hacked and malicious code inserted to an icon file. I have removed the link, for that reason -]

    I believe one these costs around 1.5 to 2 million Euros. This price is comparable with putting in a new lift and I would have thought much better value for money. Every opening weekend would be guaranteed snow....without fail. Power costs are quite reasonable and you could probably supplement this with renewable power of some sort.
     
    #34 Falls expat, Jun 3, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 4, 2014
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  34. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    1720 m3 of snow a day (IDE website). I figure this will roughly provide a 25cm cover over an area of around 70x100m each day. Or to fight off the evil rain gods.....50cm deep cover over an area roughly 35x100m a day.......So if you switched it on two weeks before opening weekend it could cover an area of nearly 0.5km x 200m with 25cm deep snow unless my maths stink...which is quite possible.

    To avoid rain loss, I would stockpile it under thermal blankets like they did at Sochi then just bulldoze it out for opening weekend.
     
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  35. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just maybe they might consider doing soething like that for june/july school holidays. Doubt that many resorts would be interested in opening weekend. Maybe perisher or buller
     
  36. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    Not so sure. If people knew that every opening long weekend would guarantee to have some half decent cover then the numbers of people turning up would increase significantly. If this then lead to guaranteed early June to end of Sept skiing every day then more bookings would roll in as well outside of the main natural snow periods. The question would be cost versus income as always. If I was a mad ex Microsoft founder I would put multiple IDE units on a resort like Buller and cover the mountain from start of season to finish...because I could just for fun... and say two fingers to nature.
     
  37. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They tried it at Buller in 2001 or 2002 and it didn't work.

    Mainly because it was a novelty unit designed to make snow at high temperatures, and it was essentially too powerful and froze up all the time, because it only had to cool down 2-3 degrees, not 20-30.

    Assuming the technology has improved since then.
     
  38. dossa5

    dossa5 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ive heard it produces much better snow, but that was a while ago
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Getting off topic here ...
    (first for the season)
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    latest runs are colder, but drier IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty late. Can we use the first declaration of 'stay on topic' in weather to model the timing of the season starting dump?
     
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    The pressure is too high (1024hpa - 1026hpa) for anything more than a dusting IMO.

    If we get a southerly like GFS is suggesting then Lake Mountain and Baw Baw would do best.

    If it comes from the SE like AXS is now suggesting then NSW will do best.

    All IMO. (imo)
     
  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good idea. Monday's weather looks best for bike riding.
     
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  44. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    BoM going for snow down to 1200 metres on Saturday in W+S Gippsland. I'm still a bit sceptical about any great amount of precipitation, but if this system works out it will definitely favour Baw Baw.

    S/SE systems are quite fickle for Gippsland and oftem bring more precipitation than the models predict. The most likely scenario is a dusting, but there is also a chance of 30mm of rain, or no precipitation at all (with really cold temps), or 5-10cm of snow.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is drier by the run.

    [​IMG]
     
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Yeah just saw the latest GFS right after I posted.
     
  47. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sprinkle of Rain Sat. 5cm Sunday. IMO.
     
  48. zarb

    zarb Hard Yards

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    Magic carpet looking good at Front Valley this morning :cheers:
     
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  49. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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