NSW/ACT Persistent Easterly Trough followed by inland trough March 17-24, 2021

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Steve777

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The models are in agreement that long-fetch Easterlies driven by a strong high in the Southern Tasman, combined with a persistent trough off the NSW coast, will bring showers and rain along the NSW coast and the ranges East of the Divide over the next five days or so. There will be very heavy falls on the Mid North Coast and its hinterland.

As the high moves East early next week, the Easterly trough dissipates. However, another trough develops in Western NSW. It moves across the State over the following three days, bringing widespread rainfall.

Here is the forecast rainfall from GFS over the next couple of weeks - this coming week:

Rain March 17-23 2021.JPG


The following week:

Rain March 24-30 2021.JPG
 

Bello Weather

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Jul 12, 2019
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Thanks for kicking off. Just posted this in the NE NSW SE QLD thread. 72 hour totals from the 18z EC run - not sure where the biggest falls will happen but somewhere between Taree and Grafton is going to be smacked with some big falls while other locations along the coast see some good falls as well.

xx_model-en-304-0_modezrpd_2021031618_72_13008_157.png


Totals from a range of models out to 168 hours:

ezgif.com-gif-maker (19).gif
 

Steve777

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I considered naming this thread "and it shall rain forever and ever" but thought better of it. Still, it's a good description of the Sydney forecast, with rain and cloudy conditions forecast for each of the next seven days. Those looking sunshine beyond the odd break in the clouds will need to look to late next week.

This morning's forecast totals for Sydney and surrounds over the coming week:

Newcastle: 90 - 170
Sydney OH: 70 - 150
Penrith: 90 - 170
Wollongong: 80 - 170
 

Longys

Hard Yards
Jul 9, 2019
68
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Glenmore Park
From the BOM. Obviously this could change depending on where things happen.

Initial Flood Watch for the Orara, Bellinger and Nambucca Rivers

Issued at 10:44 am EDT on Wednesday 17 March 2021

Flood Watch Number: 1

FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE ORARA, BELLINGER AND NAMBUCCA RIVERS

Rainfall is forecast along the New South Wales Coast from Thursday and will continue into the weekend. The rainfall has the potential to cause minor to moderate flooding along the the Orara, Bellinger and Nambucca Rivers. Flooding may develop from late Thursday into the weekend.



A coastal trough is expected to deepen near the northern New South Wales coast on Thursday morning and then gradually extend south on Friday generating unsettled weather and heavy rain. Heavy rainfall may develop from Thursday morning along the mid north coast. This may then spread south towards the Hunter, Sydney and Illawarra during Friday and Saturday.

Catchments likely to be affected by flooding are currently wet following rainfall earlier in the week.

The weather system is expected to cause flooding for the catchments listed from Thursday into the weekend as the weather system moves south. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Orara River

minor to moderate flooding

Coffs Coast

Bellinger and Kalang Rivers
minor flooding

Nambucca River
minor to moderate flooding


For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood

Flood Safety Advice:
This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service.

Severe Weather Warnings will be issued or updated if very heavy rain is forecast or observed.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml

FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately

Next Issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm EDT on Thursday 18 March 2021.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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The kicker is the onshore direction for the basin imo.
It looks like a noreaster . Traditionally that's no super heavy for the metro.
Great for warragamba.
 

Billy_Buttons

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Hold my floating shed
Our uphill neighbour's easement got blocked by a cut tree stump log blocking the entrance. The water ran down and across both theirs and another property, flowing straight down into our property. 10 more minutes of intensity we would have been swimming inside our house.
 
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Steve777

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Not sure of the observed totals for that event but this one looks to be moreso widespread than alarming flood totals (for West of GDR).
Nyngan received 373 mm rainfall in April 1990, about 84% of its annual average of 446 mm. The rain was widspread in NSW and Qld that month. Upstream (Bogan River), Parkes, near the source, received 299 mm.
 

menthurae

Hard Yards
May 14, 2020
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The intensity and on/off switching of these (very quick) showers is amazing. Eerie silence followed by the deafening loudness of very large droplets at a rapid rate (on the colorbond) ... And then it stops... Drip drip drip from the trees, then silence again...
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
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The rain around walgett, coonamble and lower macquarie should be good for sorting out some of the mice plague issues.

I've seen one poo in our house. Others i know in Dubbo are complaining of them running all over their houses and keeping them awake at night. Things are out of control out in the scrub. Apparently they are eating everything. Birds, chooks, lizards, anything that can't get away.
 

Eddy

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Jul 4, 2019
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Gosford to Buladelah. Copping it.

Ground is already water logged, there will be flooding out for that for sure.

There is indeed, only road in and out of town is cut and plenty of streets around town with 6-12 inches of water running over them.
Bungwahl and Wallis lake recorded 142mm respectively to 9am, Nelson Bay 150mm. Some PWS around Smiths Lake are well over 250mm but I would take them with a grain of salt.
 

davidg

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There is indeed, only road in and out of town is cut and plenty of streets around town with 6-12 inches of water running over them.
Bungwahl and Wallis lake recorded 142mm respectively to 9am, Nelson Bay 150mm. Some PWS around Smiths Lake are well over 250mm but I would take them with a grain of salt.
That's a spicy meatball!

Looks like the fun should kick off here in about 30-60mins or so. Me thinks the escarpment and Eastern side of the BM's is going to get a pummeling. If Penrith is forecast for up to 200mm between now and Sunday then Glenbrook/Lapstone should see 25-50% more than that. And if Warragamba doesn't spill you'll find me in the eat my hat thread!
 

Eddy

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Jul 4, 2019
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That's a spicy meatball!

Looks like the fun should kick off here in about 30-60mins or so. Me think the escarpment and Eastern side of the BM's is going to get a pummeling. If Penrith is forecast for up to 200mm between now and Sunday then Glenbrook/Lapstone should see 25-50% more than that. And if Warragamba doesn't spill you'll find em in the eat my hat thread!

Fun alright, I've got a few lawns to mow today and if there is a break in the weather the mower will be pushed, there's not many places about where an hour after 150mm has fallen you can mow!!
Problem is I don't think there will be much of a break.
 
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gwilli

Hard Yards
Jul 9, 2019
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Rockdale , Sydney
That's a spicy meatball!

Looks like the fun should kick off here in about 30-60mins or so. Me thinks the escarpment and Eastern side of the BM's is going to get a pummeling. If Penrith is forecast for up to 200mm between now and Sunday then Glenbrook/Lapstone should see 25-50% more than that. And if Warragamba doesn't spill you'll find me in the eat my hat thread!

Warragamba will fill very quickly with the incoming , i expect they will need to open the gates sometime Friday
 

ShavedBadger

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Apr 30, 2018
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Stop/start drizzle here in Tomago NSW - not stopping the predictions of a Biblical flood from all the meteorological experts in the office though. :rolleyes:
 

David Brand

First Runs
Nov 23, 2020
4
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LEtape is going to be interesting if it goes ahead, going to be a lot of disappointed people either way

Drove down from Brisbane for it (but grew up in the Highlands, so have family here).

I think there'll be a full cancellation by this evening. No way can we ride in those conditions on a flat road, let alone the dicey descents which are susceptible to debris and damage in far less rainfall.

We will still be in Kiama but I expect the bikes will stay dry inside and we'll check out the local "watering hole" instead!
 
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