NSW/ACT Persistent Easterly Trough followed by inland trough March 17-24, 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.

Nidecker

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 5, 2009
4,797
8,232
363
Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
And some other non FB source.
D516CDF0-2F0C-4836-80B3-8707156F3F51.png

News.com

A landslide has closed one of the major roads out of Sydney today, leaving motorists stranded – and there are reports the damage is so bad it may be blocked off indefinitely.

Bells Line of Road, which links Richmond in western Sydney with the town of Bell in the Blue Mountains, is now closed in both directions and according to the Bowen Mountain community group, it will remain so “for the foreseeable future”.

“Engineers have determined that the latest landslide (just after lunch) has damaged the road to such an extent that there is a high risk of the whole mountainside and roadway collapsing into the gorge below,” the group wrote. “The excessive rain has eroded the structural integrity underneath the road, causing parts of the road to fall into the valley. Many motorists are stuck with no way of getting home.”
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,369
79,762
3,563
woonona
News.com

A landslide has closed one of the major roads out of Sydney today, leaving motorists stranded – and there are reports the damage is so bad it may be blocked off indefinitely.

Bells Line of Road, which links Richmond in western Sydney with the town of Bell in the Blue Mountains, is now closed in both directions and according to the Bowen Mountain community group, it will remain so “for the foreseeable future”.

“Engineers have determined that the latest landslide (just after lunch) has damaged the road to such an extent that there is a high risk of the whole mountainside and roadway collapsing into the gorge below,” the group wrote. “The excessive rain has eroded the structural integrity underneath the road, causing parts of the road to fall into the valley. Many motorists are stuck with no way of getting home.”
Sounds like the west coast of the south Island
 

AshestoAshes

One of Us
Jul 3, 2019
429
996
263
21
Voyager Point NSW
That 108mms at Hampton (west of Jenolan) must've really made a dent minor flood warning on the Macquarie at Bathurst (been a long time).

Screen Shot 2021-03-22 at 11.13.35 pm.png


Also another phenomena (not too favourable) which is quite rare East of the Divide is that there's going to be moderate - major flood levels when the heat returns on Wednesday with two 29s.
 

4foot8andahalf

Early Days
Mar 21, 2021
13
49
13
News.com

A landslide has closed one of the major roads out of Sydney today, leaving motorists stranded – and there are reports the damage is so bad it may be blocked off indefinitely.

Bells Line of Road, which links Richmond in western Sydney with the town of Bell in the Blue Mountains, is now closed in both directions and according to the Bowen Mountain community group, it will remain so “for the foreseeable future”.

“Engineers have determined that the latest landslide (just after lunch) has damaged the road to such an extent that there is a high risk of the whole mountainside and roadway collapsing into the gorge below,” the group wrote. “The excessive rain has eroded the structural integrity underneath the road, causing parts of the road to fall into the valley. Many motorists are stuck with no way of getting home.”

You can't always have everything, but the permanent closure of Bowen Creek Road / Mt Irvine Road eight years back probably doesn't look like the best decision now. I have always thought that would have been a good 'plan B' up that way to have it at least 2WD accessible in a basic sense. You would have been at least able to get people out of the west side of the Hawkesbury now.
 

4foot8andahalf

Early Days
Mar 21, 2021
13
49
13
Quick update on those dam outflows:
- Nepean 17500Ml/day
- Avon 5000 Ml/day
- Cordeaux 3000 Ml/day
- Warragamba 200000 Ml/day (operators must like round numbers)

There's 50000 Ml/day going past Camden (peak for this event so far) and 57000 Ml/day going past Wallacia (on the way up again). Penrith sitting at 330000Ml/day.
 

Nidecker

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 5, 2009
4,797
8,232
363
Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
You can't always have everything, but the permanent closure of Bowen Creek Road / Mt Irvine Road eight years back probably doesn't look like the best decision now. I have always thought that would have been a good 'plan B' up that way to have it at least 2WD accessible in a basic sense. You would have been at least able to get people out of the west side of the Hawkesbury now.

Could be time to run a grader through there :)
 

PMG

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jan 3, 2011
3,846
2,697
363
Sydney
We've been lucky so far where we live in nw Sydney with only fairly light winds. If they increase with the passage of the low over the next couple of days there could be trees falling like ten pins. Fingers crossed.
 

Sir Surfalot

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 23, 2000
2,912
7,900
363
Somewhere surfy or snowy
Yes but I would expect some horrendous water quality
For Palm Beach where I surf, it's not just the "quality" of the water in the classic sense (the brownness and the number of bull sharks likely mixed up in it), it is more the driftwood (including entire trees) and random human-origin debris in the water that is the real risk for being in the water.

I've not gone for a look this morning but will likely go tomorrow, but expecting there to be enormous piles of driftwood and rubbish all along the beach, and floating in the water just under the surface (where it's super dangerous to hit it when surfing, or worse getting hit by when duck diving when paddling out) like it was last February after the last flooding of the Hawkesbury.
 

Tweekin

One of Us
Sep 29, 2016
300
541
263
We've been lucky so far where we live in nw Sydney with only fairly light winds. If they increase with the passage of the low over the next couple of days there could be trees falling like ten pins. Fingers crossed.
Going to be windy along the coast today
5B9D776C-4207-4E03-A155-A42830E227ED.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: piolet

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,369
79,762
3,563
woonona
Must admit. I thought it would be worse this morning.
Light winds and light showers in Wollongong.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,369
79,762
3,563
woonona
Yeah Bellambi is only showing 11 knots.
I'd say a 1/4 of that here at home.
Leaden sky ..very wintry looking.
 
  • Like
Reactions: climberman

ecowain

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 14, 2003
2,552
4,129
363
Mount Victoria, NSW
You can't always have everything, but the permanent closure of Bowen Creek Road / Mt Irvine Road eight years back probably doesn't look like the best decision now. I have always thought that would have been a good 'plan B' up that way to have it at least 2WD accessible in a basic sense. You would have been at least able to get people out of the west side of the Hawkesbury now.
Except that Bowen’s creek will be in massive flood right now, given pics I’ve received of adjacent creeks.

Once it drops, yes.

upper blue mtns. Still chucking it down.
 

Bloke

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 21, 2011
1,206
2,130
363
Sydney
Except that Bowen’s creek will be in massive flood right now, given pics I’ve received of adjacent creeks.

Once it drops, yes.

upper blue mtns. Still chucking it down.
Are you able to share these pics?
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,369
79,762
3,563
woonona
Talking head on ABC telling me that the BOM have predicted 90mm for Sydney today?
This event is looking over red rover for the basin me thinks?
That low will track further south and whip it in around Narooma etc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Snow Blowey

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,994
36,740
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Talking head on ABC telling me that the BOM have predicted 90mm for Sydney today?
This event is looking over red rover for the basin me thinks?
That low will track further south and whip it in around Narooma etc.
AXS-C puts +100mm on Foxgrounds by tomorrow AM.
But si si, Sydney may get 30-40mm max IMO.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,149
24,137
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Another case of the inland rain largely missing the mark in terms of floods and river flow with bigger total out on the plains and not as much falling at the top of the GDR. The macquarie did OK but i don't think its a filler event. Copeton and Splitrock / Keepit seemed to miss out almost completely. Some good flows along the Abercrombie into Wyangala also.

Still falling in upper Macquarie and upper Lachlan catchments.



.
 

Majikthise

Sage
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jan 1, 1970
32,469
19,581
1,063
Blue Mts
Quick update on those dam outflows:
- Nepean 17500Ml/day
- Avon 5000 Ml/day
- Cordeaux 3000 Ml/day
- Warragamba 200000 Ml/day (operators must like round numbers)

There's 50000 Ml/day going past Camden (peak for this event so far) and 57000 Ml/day going past Wallacia (on the way up again). Penrith sitting at 330000Ml/day.
So 12 % of the Nepean's flow at Wallacia is coming in below Camden! How good is urbanisation! (Eg Headwaters of Cobbity Creek is in part of Oran Park)
 
  • Like
Reactions: sbm_ and dawooduck

jonathanc

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 4, 2014
2,280
3,700
363
For Palm Beach where I surf, it's not just the "quality" of the water in the classic sense (the brownness and the number of bull sharks likely mixed up in it), it is more the driftwood (including entire trees) and random human-origin debris in the water that is the real risk for being in the water.

I've not gone for a look this morning but will likely go tomorrow, but expecting there to be enormous piles of driftwood and rubbish all along the beach, and floating in the water just under the surface (where it's super dangerous to hit it when surfing, or worse getting hit by when duck diving when paddling out) like it was last February after the last flooding of the Hawkesbury.
Got nailed by driftwood after heavy rain when surfing a river mouth break as a kid. Was getting the best waves of my life at the time but quickly worked out why it wasn't crowded!
 

piolet

Better make it three
Ski Pass
May 27, 2004
38,545
50,764
1,163
in the cupboard covered in dust
Talking head on ABC telling me that the BOM have predicted 90mm for Sydney today?
This event is looking over red rover for the basin me thinks?
That low will track further south and whip it in around Narooma etc.

bom suggesting light rain with heavier periods through the day wrapping up about 1700 at the airport
Maybe I’ll be able to ride home
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
125,369
79,762
3,563
woonona
bom suggesting light rain with heavier periods through the day wrapping up about 1700 at the airport
Maybe I’ll be able to ride home
Yeah for sure..
But the talking heads are freaking people out a bit.
I've got mates telling me we'll get 90mm during the day.
The delivery is a bit off.
 

sbm_

One of Us
Ski Pass
Dec 10, 2017
2,198
4,864
363
The Capertee River (a major tributary of the Colo that feeds from close to the Divide, north west of the Blue Mountains towards Mudgee) has just surged *massively*, far higher than what it has been so far for this event.

Surely a reason for the sudden big evacuation efforts announced this morning for the settled Colo area near its mouth (which was already at major flood level)

(Is the Wolgan pub going to be gone for good this time!?)
 

piolet

Better make it three
Ski Pass
May 27, 2004
38,545
50,764
1,163
in the cupboard covered in dust
Yeah for sure..
But the talking heads are freaking people out a bit.
I've got mates telling me we'll get 90mm during the day.
The delivery is a bit off.
Yeah not sure on totals expected but chance for isolated higher falls. Currently 1.5mm/hr on weatherzone I guess that’s the overall drizzle that’ll continue throughout the day so maybe 15 plus the heavier showers forecast between 11 and 1700... maybe 30-40mm totals around?
Hopefully not too much to pond up on the road home
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bloke and Donza

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,149
24,137
1,063
Dubbo NSW
The Capertee River (a major tributary of the Colo that feeds from close to the Divide, north west of the Blue Mountains towards Mudgee) has just surged *massively*, far higher than what it has been so far for this event.

Surely a reason for the sudden big evacuation efforts announced this morning for the settled Colo area near its mouth (which was already at major flood level)

(Is the Wolgan pub going to be gone for good this time!?)


All the gauges up that way were 60mm+ for yesterday. Same goes for the Macdonald.

That Upper Colo gauge seems to have been stuck at about 14.5m for 3 days, so water obviously not getting out the bottom end.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
26,149
24,137
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Bit more optimistic now. A few river gauges finally starting to kick up steeply in the Macquarie / Cudgegong. Turon heading up. Cudgegong starting to flow. Macquarie holding steady for the last 24hrs and seems to have some more inflow coming from Campbells which has been steady until this morning.

This weeks job site out towards Condobolin has had close to 200mm in the last 2 weeks. Won't be getting out there any time soon.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass