NSW/ACT Persistent Easterly Trough followed by inland trough March 17-24, 2021

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Majikthise

Sage
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The Capertee River (a major tributary of the Colo that feeds from close to the Divide, north west of the Blue Mountains towards Mudgee) has just surged *massively*, far higher than what it has been so far for this event.

Surely a reason for the sudden big evacuation efforts announced this morning for the settled Colo area near its mouth (which was already at major flood level)

(Is the Wolgan pub going to be gone for good this time!?)
Capertee catchment is wildly different to Wolgan.
 

Majikthise

Sage
Moderator
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Bit more optimistic now. A few river gauges finally starting to kick up steeply in the Macquarie / Cudgegong. Turon heading up. Cudgegong starting to flow. Macquarie holding steady for the last 24hrs and seems to have some more inflow coming from Campbells which has been steady until this morning.

This weeks job site out towards Condobolin has had close to 200mm in the last 2 weeks. Won't be getting out there any time soon.
Turon left Capertee right. !
 

Majikthise

Sage
Moderator
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The Clarence River at Grafton is now well above the moderate flood level of 3.6 metres and it's still raining over the entire massive catchment. Will be watching closely overnight as its this sort of widespread rain that can cause the river to rise very quickly and continue rising for hours after it stops raining.
2nd biggest catchment in the state.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
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Nice solid NW rain in the gong at moment.
5mm an hour rate.
Doesn't look like lasting beyond Noon though.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
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Gwydir on a run this morning also, approaching moderate flood level (all downstream of Copeton). That would be the cluster of 100mm+ falls around Moree and Warialda. Water coming out of the Horton River aslo from north side of Kaputar.
 
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Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
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Another case of the inland rain largely missing the mark in terms of floods and river flow with bigger total out on the plains and not as much falling at the top of the GDR. The macquarie did OK but i don't think its a filler event. Copeton and Splitrock / Keepit seemed to miss out almost completely. Some good flows along the Abercrombie into Wyangala also.

Still falling in upper Macquarie and upper Lachlan catchments.



.


I'll take this post back after having a better look at the border rivers catchments. Very premature. Lots of flow showing up high there this morning. Macintyre, Severn, Dumaresq.
 

sbm_

One of Us
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Dec 10, 2017
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Absolutely bucketing down here in Canberra. My rain gauge had recorded 52.5mm to 9pm last night for the last couple of days; torrential rain means I’m not heading out there any time soon to check it again :D. Fish pond overflowing and pool heading in that direction!

To put this in perspective with what's happening in the Blue Mountains, 52mm is less than *any amount recorded in the last five* days near my MIL in the upper BMs, which since last Friday has recorded 87mm, 53mm, 110mm, 88mm, 55mm.

Davidg in the lower BMs has had even more than that, and the unfortunate people on the north coast even much more again!
 

Bindo

One of Us
Feb 25, 2001
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Creek on our property at Hampton, usually about a metre wide! There's a bridge under the water somewhere.
Found the bridge!

IMG_1584.jpeg
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
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In terms of Warragamba spill flow from the Wollondilly side looks as solid as it has for the whole event and flow in the upper catchment is better than it has been at any time during the event. I guess the key difference is no 100mm+ falling at the lower end. Coxs side has back right off. Suggests there's a solid two days of spilling ahead though.
 

Untele-whippet

beard stroker
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Jul 13, 2006
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To put this in perspective with what's happening in the Blue Mountains, 52mm is less than *any amount recorded in the last five* days near my MIL in the upper BMs, which since last Friday has recorded 87mm, 53mm, 110mm, 88mm, 55mm.

Davidg in the lower BMs has had even more than that, and the unfortunate people on the north coast even much more again!
Yeah, we’re about to crack 400 mm since Thursday.
In 36 years since I’ve lived here, that’s an unheard of stupid massive measurement.
 

sbm_

One of Us
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Its all relative isn't it. 18 months ago a 50mm fall would have been epic. After the week we've just had its like a clearing shower.

I did note that the national wettest place in the last week was actually Byfield in QLD north of Rockhampton haha. Business as usual up there!?

Did we come to a consensus as to the craziest rain totals in NSW for this event? Mt Seaview inland from Port Maq recorded 28mm, 40mm, 152mm, 272mm, 105mm, 203mm, 106mm for a total of 906mm.
 

Lady Penelope

One of some lot ...
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Sep 7, 2014
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To put this in perspective with what's happening in the Blue Mountains, 52mm is less than *any amount recorded in the last five* days near my MIL in the upper BMs, which since last Friday has recorded 87mm, 53mm, 110mm, 88mm, 55mm.

Davidg in the lower BMs has had even more than that, and the unfortunate people on the north coast even much more again!
Yes. To put this in perspective, Canberra very rarely receives rainfalls of this magnitude. But I take your point.
 
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ShavedBadger

Consumer of Eggs
Ski Pass
Apr 30, 2018
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I don’t have a rain gauge so went for a walk on back lawn and the technical term is “very squelchy underfoot”
Absolutely sodden out there.
If anyone has any good advice on best rain gauge/weather stations for a novice to buy - pls feel free to PM me!

Ours has been up to ankle deep in places for the past 5 days or so.

Needless to say, we have a plumber booked to quote on drainage this Friday.
 
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sbm_

One of Us
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Dec 10, 2017
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Yes. To put this in perspective, Canberra very rarely receives rainfalls of this magnitude. But I take your point.

Ah of course. But about perspective, I'm now curious about this town of Byfield in Queensland north of Rockhampton that recorded more rain than anyone, 1,000mm in a week! And the only news was positive "It's great we finally got a bit of rain, good for the mangos and lychees!"
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Sullivan’s Creek in Acton (Canberra):
1A77344A-92F7-4CC7-9A6D-3EFF8299518F.jpeg

Normally it’s just a little trickle of water
Yes. To put this in perspective, Canberra very rarely receives rainfalls of this magnitude. But I take your point.
And clearly the drains and landscape is struggling to cope, so much water around.
I got soaked after a 5 min ride.
 

Eddy

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Jul 4, 2019
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Up to 514mm for this event, I certainly don't recall an event quite like it. All you need to do is check the current warning for NSW that tells a story in itself, a total of 31 warnings are current and there's probably a couple more to come.
An event I won't forget in hurry.
 

PMG

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I did note that the national wettest place in the last week was actually Byfield in QLD north of Rockhampton haha. Business as usual up there!?

Did we come to a consensus as to the craziest rain totals in NSW for this event? Mt Seaview inland from Port Maq recorded 28mm, 40mm, 152mm, 272mm, 105mm, 203mm, 106mm for a total of 906mm.
991 mm for Nambucca Heads still leading for the week ending 9 am this morning.
 

DidSurfNowSki

One of them
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Jan 19, 2014
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To put this in perspective with what's happening in the Blue Mountains, 52mm is less than *any amount recorded in the last five* days near my MIL in the upper BMs, which since last Friday has recorded 87mm, 53mm, 110mm, 88mm, 55mm.

Davidg in the lower BMs has had even more than that, and the unfortunate people on the north coast even much more again!
Hey ! Six roads have been closed ! Six ! I can even name them:the Uriarra, Coppins, Angle, Point Hut, Oaks Estate and Sunshine crossings. All four of the ACT's dams are full and are now overflowing.
 
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Steve777

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Jul 4, 2019
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991 mm for Nambucca Heads still leading for the week ending 9 am this morning.
The annual average is about 1100 mm, so we're talking nearly a year's rainfall in a week.

---

Steady light rain continues here. Looking at the radar and satellite picture, the event seems to be on its way out here, shifting Southwards and Eastwards - can't come too soon.

Falls around Sydney since 9:00 are around 10-20 mm, heavier in the South. I don't think that we will be seeing the big totals (50-90 mm?) forecast this morning.
 
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4foot8andahalf

Early Days
Mar 21, 2021
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So 12 % of the Nepean's flow at Wallacia is coming in below Camden! How good is urbanisation! (Eg Headwaters of Cobbity Creek is in part of Oran Park)
I'm sure there are some timing issues there, but yeah hectares of roofing (in dark colours I might add) will do that. The airport is moving mountains too and while it will have some on site detention, the hectares of impervious surface will only make the downstream catchments more reactive for events like this.

Been a good long steady shower here for the last hour or so - water is streaming down the back yard again. Looks like the area is getting it - roughly 10mm/hr. It feels like the final hurrah of the event, but we know that's not true as the flood waters will take days to subside.

Nepean Dam and Pheasants Nest weir the highest they've been for this event and all gauges Pheasant Nest - Wallacia on the rise.
 
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sbm_

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Dec 10, 2017
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People posting on the SES Hawkesbury page that they are starting to run out of food, medications, nappies fuel. I think this event will be tragic not so much for the raw depth of the floodwaters, but the duration that communities will be cut off with the simultaneous destruction of Bells Line of Road (the back way out)

Completely cut off communities including Mt Tomah, Berambing, Bilpin, Kurrajong, Bowen Mountain, Grose Vale, North Richmond, Freeman's Reach, Wilberforce, Blaxlands Ridge...surely tens of thousands of people? Boat or heli access only.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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Oct 26, 2002
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Got nailed by driftwood after heavy rain when surfing a river mouth break as a kid. Was getting the best waves of my life at the time but quickly worked out why it wasn't crowded!

I hit a pine tree at North Avalon one maxing surf. Pointy branch impaled my board and it was a struggle to remove my leg rope.

Surf was awesome but a brush cutter would have been handy.

Jindy North's Shore finally getting some decent rain today.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
Ski Pass
Oct 26, 2002
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Not so "bridgey" right now ... I know build a new one, raise it 6 meters at one end and 3 at the other, that will make it flood proof for sure ... :p

Need to raise the surrounding flood plain to be sure ...

Is every nsw coastal river system now in some sort of flood cycle?
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
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Nice flows heading down the Murrumbidgee out of Canberra. Think Burrinjuck was sitting around 65% so it may fill.
 

Edge72

Hard Yards
Apr 3, 2020
36
35
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Sydney
I know i can be critical of the BOM but they have been spot on with this event and deserve some praise ! I think a large part of difference with events like this is that it’s all hands on deck at the BOM , no automated forecasts , i just feel they can become a little too ‘BOT’ like with the normal ‘garden variety’ type forecasts. But credit where credit is due ... really impressed !
 

Sir Surfalot

One of Us
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Apr 23, 2000
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Somewhere surfy or snowy
I hit a pine tree at North Avalon one maxing surf. Pointy branch impaled my board and it was a struggle to remove my leg rope.
Risk of that today; I went for a look earlier (with boards in my car) but I didn't surf. In fairness North Av was surfable - if you had a super-human immune system and weren't too worried about Noahs or submerged random stuff (a couple of Brazilian backpackers were surfing and I had a chat to one when he finished his session) - but Palm Beach was just NO. Weirdest washed-up object I found on a quick look was a park bench, and there was a _lot_ of large logs and other nasty stuff out in the water waiting to whack unsuspecting surfers and swimmers. Reckon I won't be surfing for another couple of days.

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