Predictions POW's Christ(al Ball)mas Day

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Dec 11, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Merry Christmas skidot-gang.
    At exactly a fortnight out I thought I'd offer you my gift of giving in the form of some LR model/Ensemble commentary for around the country on the big day.
    Happy to revisit over the weekend. If you're vibin' it, just Like it.

    EPS (EC ensmeble) suggests a cradling high to dominate the synoptic outlook for the SE leaving a heat-sink through Southern WA, South of a weak surface trough


    GEF (GFS ensemble) with similar outlook and a ridging high pressure dominating Southern & SE states
    [​IMG]

    GFS Deterministic
    anyone's guess... but looks merry AF Aus-wide


    Progged outlook (IMO)
    Adelaide - Fine, easterly winds, max temps ~30C
    Canberra - Fine, max temps late20s/30C
    Darwin - Storms, max ~30C
    Brisbane - Possible shower/storm, max temps ~30C
    Hobart - Possible shower or two, Westerly winds, max temps in mid-20s
    Melbourne - Mainly fine, light easterly winds, mid 20's
    Perth - Fine and hot, max temps in mid 30s
    Sydney - Mainly fine, light on shore flow with max temps in early 30s
     
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  2. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local
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  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Nice, I'll add the full EPS to the above.


    Hot for the Central and Western parts of the nation, average for the East.




    Typical climatological rain to the North, some potential Low movements in the Coral Sea, and rain in the Sydney basin for Christmas Day.
     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Sydney
    25 .
    Nor easter with a couple of clouds. Could warm to 33 in Kellyville
     
  5. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Melbourne 29 degrees I reckon.
    Sunny.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Seeing the ensembles come to life now as the deterministics throw up some agreement with similar outlooks.
    The fickle little changes are the weak onshore flow for the NSW coast, downgrading the heat. Hobart under the influence of a shortwave frontal pattern yielding windier W'ly conditions.

    ***UPDATED*** Progged outlook (IMO)

    Adelaide - Fine, easterly winds, max temps ~30C
    Canberra - Fine, max temps late 20s/30C
    Darwin - Storms, max ~30C
    Brisbane - Possible shower/storm, max temps late 20s
    Hobart - Possible shower or two, moderate Westerly winds, max ~20C
    Melbourne - Mainly fine, light easterly winds, mid 20 maxs
    Perth - Fine and hot, max temps in mid/late 30s (coastal aspect dependent with Freo doctor by PM)
    Sydney - Mainly fine, light on shore flow with max temps mid 20s
     
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  7. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Ok how about boxing day... for mlb around 11 and syd 1pm. ;)
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    According to GFS

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    so win the toss and bat for melbourne .
    for sydney we need wind and direction ;)
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Despite Tim Paine hoping for a washout. Melbourne looks bloody warm Boxing day.
     
  11. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local
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    ...and Jindabyne/Thredbo?
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Jindy: Mainly Fine, scattered cloud in the arvo & Max of ~28C (Thredbo Village max ~20C) IMO.
     
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  13. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local
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    :woohoo::woohoo::woohoo: