Merry Christmas skidot-gang. At exactly a fortnight out I thought I'd offer you my gift of giving in the form of some LR model/Ensemble commentary for around the country on the big day. Happy to revisit over the weekend. If you're vibin' it, just Like it. EPS (EC ensmeble) suggests a cradling high to dominate the synoptic outlook for the SE leaving a heat-sink through Southern WA, South of a weak surface trough GEF (GFS ensemble) with similar outlook and a ridging high pressure dominating Southern & SE states GFS Deterministic anyone's guess... but looks merry AF Aus-wide Progged outlook (IMO) Adelaide - Fine, easterly winds, max temps ~30C Canberra - Fine, max temps late20s/30C Darwin - Storms, max ~30C Brisbane - Possible shower/storm, max temps ~30C Hobart - Possible shower or two, Westerly winds, max temps in mid-20s Melbourne - Mainly fine, light easterly winds, mid 20's Perth - Fine and hot, max temps in mid 30s Sydney - Mainly fine, light on shore flow with max temps in early 30s
Nice, I'll add the full EPS to the above. Hot for the Central and Western parts of the nation, average for the East. Typical climatological rain to the North, some potential Low movements in the Coral Sea, and rain in the Sydney basin for Christmas Day.
Seeing the ensembles come to life now as the deterministics throw up some agreement with similar outlooks. The fickle little changes are the weak onshore flow for the NSW coast, downgrading the heat. Hobart under the influence of a shortwave frontal pattern yielding windier W'ly conditions. ***UPDATED*** Progged outlook (IMO) Adelaide - Fine, easterly winds, max temps ~30C Canberra - Fine, max temps late 20s/30C Darwin - Storms, max ~30C Brisbane - Possible shower/storm, max temps late 20s Hobart - Possible shower or two, moderate Westerly winds, max ~20C Melbourne - Mainly fine, light easterly winds, mid 20 maxs Perth - Fine and hot, max temps in mid/late 30s (coastal aspect dependent with Freo doctor by PM) Sydney - Mainly fine, light on shore flow with max temps mid 20s
