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Predictions Prediction : 2nd Sept - 5th Sept

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Aug 26, 2015.

  1. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know it's quite a ways out. But this looks pretty juicy.

    Looks like hitting 2nd Sept and last 2 to 3 days.

    Some pre-frontal but looks cold enough to deliver some love.

    CC, If you feel we can tack onto other Prediction thread. Please feel free.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    I did kind of start one after seeing Jane suggesting something might happen. Jane has progressively become more positive about it as well.
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not looking too bad this morning:
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Cut of low wandering cold pool could be a hit or miss again might go to far north
     
  5. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    I will be the doomsayer on this one. Maybe a little snow up high ( over 1800m) but rain for everywhere else. I think temps will be too high for anything but rain. Could hasten the end of the season. Sorry but that's how I see it atm.
     
  6. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd like to see charts to confirm that.

    Whilst I think temps are borderline. I still think we'll get pre-frontal, before snow above 1600m. These are the 850 temps, which look ok.

    [​IMG]

    And this is the low with reasonable precipitation. It is a bit North, but looks similar to last weeks, which delivered.

    I'm definitely not ready to call this wet.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks even sweeter on the arvo run.

    [​IMG]

    Uppers showing cold pool tracks nicely. I'm still excited.

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    This looking interesting weird system again
     
  9. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like another Upgrade today. With it tracking further south. :woohoo: Starting to look like quite an event. Temps are still borderline but good.

    BTW, I'm going to have to kill some of the previous animations, before I exceed my bandwidth. This thread gets many views. Sorry.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  10. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yes although not every model has that scenario. IMO
     
  11. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is in agreement, if not more bullish. How many do you want ? ;)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Settle looks good I think its going to be an epic event for early spring
     
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  13. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 dayer looking good. gumboots again in nsw coast. or waders
     
  14. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    Cold pool goes north early in the system. Then some wrap around picking up cold air from the south at the end. Another that could be hit or miss IMO.
     
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  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Flip a coin 2015 special.
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO currently looks good for 10-15cm after a bit of prefrontal (EC)
    But another one to hold your breath on.
     
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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This looks pretty Dam Good but its a Cut Off Low.

    Event Name: CARL.

    I am going for 50 cm over two days.

    But the wind will be a problem for ski resorts (Southerlies). Aiming for North Facing Chutes

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I am not convinced.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO can't see anywhere near 50cm. But I could be wrong.
     
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  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its the curse of the Adelaide wandering slingshot coldpools.
     
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  21. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Drugs...
     
  22. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whilst I've seen systems like this produce 50cm. I don't see this one doing it.

    Cold Pool is lagging and very northerly.

    But I'll take another look tonight and give my snow estimates opinion.
     
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  23. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I predict I'll be at BawBaw on Wednesday.. Should be ok... just ,.. although very warm with showers in the evening and then R*&^ Thursday..
    NSW will be ok again .. and the rest too warm IMO
     
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    50 cents worth :love: snow from the SSW to SE.

    Definitely 70 mm of precipitation in this and I think it will snow mostly. Could be wrong but I am making plans to session this one.

    You guys missed the last clipper front with clearing conditions.

    I am confident but will see what happens.
     
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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The back up plan looks good too.

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Way north
     
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  27. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Perisher system.
    couple of feet on the main range.
    Perisher snow to 1700
    could be alot of precip.
    at least it won't go onshore
    (from latest axs-r )
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS isn't feeling it.

    [​IMG]
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    So the Frog will change his prediction ?
     
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  30. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yes Bom no so bullish about precip or temps 15 to 20
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    anyways .
    wandering cold pools are wandering.
    AXS_R models something strange.
    The cold pool is broader at 48 hours....
    yet at 72 hours its smaller yet colder.
     
    #31 Donza, Aug 31, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 31, 2015
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Location:
    wollongong
    NSW
    Thursday 3 September
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    IMO I'll stick with my earlier guess of 10-15cm, perhaps after 5-10mm prefrontal.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Bad- ... it looks wet and warm before, with no real "get colder" air.
    Good- Its very moist on AXS-R with sympathetic temps.
    The WTF... NSW BOM reckon a snow level of 1400

    Could be another surprise ala last week... without the onshore after .
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS is the only model going with the extra moisture.
    Might have to wait till tomorrow or even Wednesday morning to really know one way or another.
     
  36. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    AXS is pretty reliable though.
     
  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO the good people of the OP will see some more snow
     
  38. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday could be ok
     
  39. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah i blame Adelaide
    IMHO
     
  40. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    which day?
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    midnight wednesday into thurs am.
     
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  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    So this is early Wednesday to Lunchtime Thursday Precipitation

    And below is early Wednesday to Lunchtime Thursday 500 temps. You can that the cold pool is out of sync with the moisture.

    NSW seems to do best moisture wise. But that's provided it falls as snow. I'm scared excited. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    The front has just appeared on the satellite off WA. I am taking great solace at the Cold Air injecting in behind the front.

    As long as to much energy isn't lost. I'm quitely confident that the net gain of this system should be:

    VIC: 10-20cm
    NSW 20-25cm

    [​IMG]
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO wandering cold pools and vertically stacked lows.
    Good luck predicting anything.
    chances are sleight beyond 12 hours out.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    06 GFS run is showing even less than the 00 run.
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The prefrontal better snow. LOL

    If anything GFS has the cold air and moisture more aligned. And Low pressure temps and moisture are all closely aligned.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    But looks good on the follow up

    [​IMG]
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Definitely downgraded this morning on Access R but still good for 20 cm in the right places on Thursday. Clearing Friday.

    The Follow up on Tuesday next weeks looks good too but a along way out. Looks colder and snowy.

    All in all not a bad period.

    Looks a bit interesting Monday Night.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Snowy Mountains Forecast
    Thursday 3 September

    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain. Snow falling above 1400 metres. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

    Chance of snow
    90% at 1800m
    40% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    Friday 4 September
    Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning. Snow possible above 1100 metres. Light winds.

    Chance of snow
    30% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I'm not seeing much more than 20cm (at best), probably more like 15cm, in NSW, down to bugger all in southern resorts.
    On the plus side, doesn't seem to be any prefrontal now.
     
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I am little bit biased on this one cause I like to to ride 7000 to 6000 ft. This needs dumps with light winds

    I can see that there is not much love below 5500 feet