Predictions: 13th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by BH, May 28, 2008.

  1. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Well I think we might see something on Friday 13th. Looks like a litle low might be able to squeeze in between these huge highs. A long way out but something to watch.
     
  2. homeless penguin

    homeless penguin First Runs

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    I damn hope so....

    Booked for 6th-11th July.... Had to go early this year because of uni holidays.

    Recent years there has been decent/some cover around that time. Except 2001, when it was worse than the dreaded '06 season....

    Please snowgods, Im only an intermediate boarder, dont need too much to slide down on....

    Ill be watching, and checking this thread up to June 13!
     
  3. Mattoman

    Mattoman Hard Yards

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    i decided to book later august this year, for the last 2 times ive gone in the first weeks of july and its paid off but i dont see it happening again this year.

    Friday the 13th.. hope so.
     
  4. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Hmmm, Black Friday!

    Yes On topic...

    I see the highs dominating longer ATM... Also SOI is falling off fast, negative for the first time for nearly 18 months(wrong timing!!!!)... Not Happy!!! Last year we were heading into the big wet, lots of ECL's and cold air (well by Opening Weekend last year anyway) anyway Nature is fickle, fingers crossed lots of snowgod sacrifices and you never know... [​IMG]
     
    #4 keefy, May 28, 2008
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  5. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    yeah im hoping friday the 13th pulls through a lil snow...even some cold temps would be gud for snow making...

    what websites do you guys use for extended snow/synoptic forecasts? (14 day models)
     
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #6 Snow Blowey, May 29, 2008
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  7. Soft Powder

    Soft Powder First Runs

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    #7 Soft Powder, May 29, 2008
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  8. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Today's GFS has coldest air on the 11th and 12th...charts are all over the place .
    Maybe that's a good thing
     
  9. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Yep looks a few days early now. Moisture seems a little more then I first though too.
     
  10. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Go you good thing, last thing i need right now is Meredith calling me saying my start date had been pushed back.
     
  11. MickyJ007

    MickyJ007 First Runs

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  12. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This question might be totally off the mark and make no sense. But is it possible for the highs to shift so far south that they push lows up over the ski fields?
     
  13. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Maybe in that movie 'The day after tomorrow'

    Concentrate on willing them north.
     
  14. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    I'm sure I saw a setup like what you describe on a chart for July '81... Unfortunately I can't remember where I saw it [​IMG]
     
    #14 Principal Douglas, May 30, 2008
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  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Maybe here?
    http://www.wthrman.com/maps2/surface/198107.htm
     
    #15 Donza, May 30, 2008
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  16. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    That's the place Donza, but evidently it wasn't July 81 - must have been one of the other big years that I was looking at.

    I'll find it one day
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I know its pathetic - but I find that site so addictive (and depressing-why why can't we have another 1981 soon??)

    This date range will come good. I'm having a backyard party so its bound to be windy and cold.
     
    #17 Donza, May 30, 2008
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  18. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    #18 Principal Douglas, May 30, 2008
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  19. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    It actually stayed that way for a while that month. There was a high stalling the low over the south east around the 8th

    Jebus I would love to see a season like that
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats weird. Almost looks like a northern hemi system
     
    #20 Donza, May 30, 2008
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  21. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/allmaps_f360_sh.html

    Spaghetti plots are the result of several runs of the models with slightly different starting points and can show the range of possibilities. You can average these out by eye and with a bit of intuition make a good guess. The charts you usually see are what is called the 'control run' - it's sometimes an 'outlier' - a run that doesn't really match all the others. On this chart you can see the dference between the 00Z control and the 12Z and there is a large degree of variation.

    At this point in time I have my doubts about the 13th. High placement and precipitation are all wrong. But it could change.
     
    #21 filski, May 30, 2008
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still looks good for this date. Still a long, long way out.
     
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...but watching the charts at the moment makes me feel like a manic-depressive..in the morning I'm buying everyone rounds of drinks and in the evening I'm ready to top myself.
    The charts do seem to be solidifying behind something for these dates though I agree Claude.
     
  24. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have a feeling the weather is going to go nuts very soon. I can see a big dump happening just in time for he second weekend of the season. Hoping anyway.
     
  25. SnowObsessedQLD

    SnowObsessedQLD First Runs

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    It already has gone nuts! It's raining in Brisbane! If that isn't nuts, then I don't know what is :D. We have a huge low off the coast, poor Harvey Bay is flooding again, the coasts are being eroded, and our tanks are actually 'water' tanks now. I know this isn't ski related, but in reply to Snow Blowey, hopefully something as random as this will happen around Thredbo and other ski resorts [​IMG]

    Certaintly the moisture would be good to have down there, but we also really need it up here, the dams are still low.

    Btw please tell me if you classify this as a nuisance post. Sorry if it is.

    Jono
     
    #25 SnowObsessedQLD, May 31, 2008
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  26. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    there's just the possibility the ECL may join up with this front and give the NSW fields in particular a real SS (season starter)..not to be confused with a BB ( base builder)
     
    #26 MisterMxyzptlk, May 31, 2008
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  27. Ryan

    Ryan First Runs

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    Yep, i had to drive from Hervey Bay to Maryborough through the worst of it...now my car doesnt start [​IMG]


    Heading to Hotham on the 20th July and im starting to get nervous. Last time i went was Falls in 06 so you could imagine why [​IMG]
     
    #27 Ryan, Jun 1, 2008
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  28. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    prety impresive front of the coast of WA starting to show in the charts!
     
  29. captain hort

    captain hort First Runs

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    I like the look of the charts from about the 13 June to about the 16 june it looks at this stage they are prediciting a cut of low to form just south of Tasmania, it is a long way out however so it will be intersesting to see how it develops.
     
  30. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Looks like the dominating highs might be starting to weaken. I feel like throwing in a few yahoo's but I am not confident just yet but it does looks fairly promising for the 2nd week of the season.
     
  31. Custard

    Custard One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    ahh what the hell!
     
    #31 Custard, Jun 1, 2008
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  32. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    These dates are starting to look quite nice, a little rain before though.
     
  33. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    MSLP + Thickness out to June 15
    [​IMG]
     
    #33 filski, Jun 1, 2008
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  34. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Looking quite promising, but I'll not hold my breath yet... The preceeding high at 1032 is strong... but if it keeps moving east will certainly whip it up a bit... but the low shown forming SW of WA is deep enough to hold its own... Around 970... very interesting [​IMG]
     
    #34 keefy, Jun 1, 2008
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  35. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    That is a monster of a front forming in the Indian ocean off WA!
    Polar charts are starting to look promising too, with a bit more activity on the longwave. A bit better then the stagnate 3 node charts of the last week or so.


    I'm Lazy so it will Update.
    EDIT: ahh, why won't the picture show.... Link will do 168h Longwave
     
    #35 BrentC, Jun 2, 2008
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  36. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    I am not seeing anything even remotely interesting ATM.

    It looks like it will pass through too quickly with not very much moisture.
     
  37. BH

    BH One of Us

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    I see something but it aint all that pretty today. Way too warm for anything to fall as snow on today's run. Long way to go though and its starting to show definate breaking down of the Highs.
     
  38. captain hort

    captain hort First Runs

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    Just read on the Elders weather site (they get thier info off weatherzone and bom I just like it as it is easy to navigate their site) that the southern hemisphre long wave has now develeped into a 3 wave pattern meaning that the systems may move slower than normal, there is also a blocking system over Sth America wich is having a down stream effect. Although this is not all bad news as if we get the right system to stall of the sth east (eg a cut of low sth east of tassie) we could potentially get a very decent fall of snow if this occurs. The other thing that is looking encouraging is that we are seeing cloud feeding in on the jet stream from over the Indian ocean (have not seen this in quite a while) which if this coincides with the previously mentioned event then good snow all round.
     
  39. snowkiter

    snowkiter First Runs

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    I think you may be right .Fear not doom and gloomers the season is not a right off yet and who books ski holidays in June anyway ?(Sorry that should have been for June)


     
    #39 snowkiter, Jun 2, 2008
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  40. silverwitch

    silverwitch Hard Yards

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    Actually ..Lots of people do 'have' to book in June or earlier so they dont miss out on accomodation during the school holiday times! Especially if they have families- its a big gamble!( Sorry this is a bit off topic but ...)
     
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Still think that getting a nice big blocking high pattern out of the way just before the season kicks off is a good thing, rather than have it in the middle of July/August....hopefully it will be puking then!
     
  42. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    13th is a long way off and a Friday!

    That is a very strong (1036) high preceeding it, although the weather following looks promising, I would like to see the high weaken a tad.. Oh, and no merging of the highs!

    60/40 in favour ATM
     
  43. Ted.

    Ted. Hard Yards

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    Have to agree Capt'. If this tropical feed does coincide with a (hopefully) slowing & well timed front this could very well kick start things... It's very dependant upon timing though, not to mention 300hrs out. for the first time this season I'm feeling confident with this one ;-)
     
    #43 Ted., Jun 2, 2008
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  44. BH

    BH One of Us

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    When I hear tropical feed I think R@#N- It will want to be a super strong cold front and these highs are just not going to let that happen ATM
     
  45. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    Rain rain rain is all I see for the 11th & 12th
     
  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    13th of June - Not gonna happen now [​IMG] Nothing from the 13th-16th of June either. In fact late June is the only hope [​IMG]

    For future "snow/rain/weather events" a date range should be used so a better title would be

    Predictions 13th-16th of June.

    Generally you want the date range to be 3-5 days and not for any longer
     
    #46 skiflat, Jun 3, 2008
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  47. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Weatherzone are saying:

    "The current dry, mild and stable pattern should break down following the long weekend - with a series of fronts then likely to build a base for snow-cover outside snow making areas."

    ....which may correlate around full moon time considering it is 1% waxing crescent at present. Seems to be (either as fantasy or part science), some 'full-moon' fall mid june each year. As to how much, well who knows.....
     
  48. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Ask Ken Ring he seems to know about the moon and how it affects the weather
     
    #48 slalom pete, Jun 3, 2008
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  49. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Hmmm interesting!! But I don't see much changing until Late June
     
    #49 skiflat, Jun 3, 2008
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  50. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    Anybody

    Can someone post up the 14 day climate models for this period as the 7 day chart on Weatherzone is showing a massive front building of WA with lots of precip and the 540 line right in there, but from what I interpret from this conversation it seems like it fizzes out. I probably should buy access to the 14 day charts but until that time i don't seem to understand the negative overtones of this thread.