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Predictions: 13th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by BH, May 28, 2008.

  1. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Nothing like the first snowfall of the 'open' season to get people excited!

    From the latest GFS I'd be suggesting some snow for the higher resorts starting sometime in the wee hours of Friday morning, then continuing into the day. From there though things get a little hard to pick as it looks like we could end up with an ECL, which could mean anything, from really good to really bad. I think these beasts are notoriously hard to pick what is going to happen until very close to the time, and in particular this time, GFS seems to be pumping out some strange numbers for the period.
     
  2. D16371

    D16371 Guest

    Hows all this weather looking for buller?!
     
  3. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    As I mentioned above...... the ECL formation was going to be critical in stalling the HP system.....

    This mornings run has the signs of a formation but it's too far east to have the desired effect......

    Back to being a fizzer again.

    [​IMG]
     
    #153 main street, Jun 10, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  4. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    #154 mad4snow, Jun 10, 2008
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  5. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Yes,...... there may be some light falls on Friday.

    BUT !!

    The northerlies that will follow on Monday will see anything on the ground disappear.

    The man made that's on the ground now in PB will suffer with the rain forecast in the next day or two as well.

    It's just too warm at the moment.
     
  6. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Im only going to tip 5 - 10 cm falling from Thurs night to Sat morn. But good to see both charts looking similar. IMO there is just a lack of moisture in this system.
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #157 Donza, Jun 10, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  8. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Models change and cracks appear in the logic or maybe they are still intact and gee....we were just being strung along the negative lines until the cat is outta the bag and we can walk freely in surety of pending change encompassing snow.
     
  9. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Bit off topic but relevant, could someone tell me what time each model (LAPS, GFS, GASP) updates?
     
  10. cashie

    cashie One of Us

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    BOM Vic are on board

    Forecast: Tonight and Wednesday
    Showers increasing later tomorrow. Fresh to strong north to northwest winds.

    Outlooks:
    Thursday Isolated showers tending to rain at night. Strengthening
    northwesterly winds.
    Friday Snow showers. Windy.
    Saturday Snow showers mostly clearing.
     
  11. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Things are improving.......

    I'm still concerned about the three days afterwards though..... nice,...... warm,..... Northerlies.....
     
  12. oreo

    oreo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm looking at snow-forecast. Why would there be 5cm more snowfall at 1619m (half-way up) then at the top (1939m)?
     
  13. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    'Cos the howling Southerlies will blow it all off the top ???
     
  14. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    interesting that GASP/LAPS has come on all hot and heavy with this system with a temp/moisture upgrade...usually GFS overestimates moisture but it seems the other way around for Friday.
    Lower elevations a problem.
     
  15. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    <span style='font-size: 8pt'>PS Bergmister this link may help http://www.narconon.ca/mescaline.htm as </span>

    Thursday pm - sat am still looking good .
     
    #165 Top Rock, Jun 10, 2008
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  16. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lets hope it upgrades again tomorrow [​IMG]
     
    #166 Bato, Jun 10, 2008
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  17. captain hort

    captain hort First Runs

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    I have to say that since we started watching this system two weeks ago it is amazing that it may actually make it to the mountains and provide something for the snowmakers to work with, also the long wave trough is looking a bit more promising with it potentially moving into an area where the fronts peak over SE Australia. The only thing with this system is it wll move through kinda quickly with the next front atleast a week away.
     
  18. cashie

    cashie One of Us

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    The question is after the front has passed through will the following days at least be cold enough at night for the snowmakers? Or will it continue how it has been so far?
     
  19. QldSkiBum

    QldSkiBum First Runs

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    woohoo off to tip.

    I might have missed the last three hours before 6am Friday though.

    Can someone please let up stairs know to wait till 6am Friday before it lets rip.

    As for the topic Black Friday may be a white and angelic day after all. [​IMG]
     
    #169 QldSkiBum, Jun 10, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #170 cin, Jun 10, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  21. MickyJ007

    MickyJ007 First Runs

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    If this is not in the right thread feel free to move my post, but I have a question:

    Has Perisher even gotten to the end of June before and had absolutely no snow (bar the man-made front valley strip) to ski on? How often has this happened in the past?
     
  22. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    oreo that happens quite a bit, I noticed it on the europe resorts a while ago. I think its because most of the moisture of certain cloud bands is concentrated at lower elevation than the top of the mountain. There must be someone in this thread who can answer this one better..... Sandy,.... oh Sandy,..... are u present?

    oh and Sandy, please dont delete my post again.
     
  23. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yes micky, you are very fortunate to never have seen this. If you do it will break your heart. It is ugly.
     
  24. Frozenescort

    Frozenescort Hard Yards

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    yes Cin it sure is ugly to see all that grass ( especially at Hotham ) but i think we are in for a combined total of 10-12cms by the time this blows through on sat morning, lets hope we see some white on the cams by the weekend, atleast then we will be heading in the right direction!!
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    LAPS and GASP are much the same model. LAPS is run over a smaller scale grid using GASP for boundary conditions.

    MLAPS is a smaller scale model still using GASP for boundary conditions.

    You can read more here:

    http://www.ozbc.net/weather_forecast.htm
     
    #175 Snow Blowey, Jun 10, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    (thredbo site) Friday: Scattered showers falling as snow above 1500m, possibly lowering to 1200m.

    last year they were usually right....
     
  27. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    [​IMG]

    Would like a more southerly fetch to bring up some really cold air but at least we will get some snow up high by Friday. There is some moisture around so the higher peaks should do OK. 10 - 15 for mine.
     
    #177 Outlooker, Jun 10, 2008
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  28. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    That would be the BOM forecast. Thredbo forecast would say 50cm and top to bottom.
     
    #178 Outlooker, Jun 10, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo only re-publish the Bureau of Meteorology Forecast. Sometimes they censor some of it. Much better to get it from the source at:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/forecasts.shtml
     
    #179 Snow Blowey, Jun 10, 2008
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  30. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    ########## Off topic post ##########
     
  31. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    ########## Off topic post ##########
     
  32. T1G3R-4-L1F3

    T1G3R-4-L1F3 First Runs

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    yeah i get what you mean by twisting the truth...i like the top temp on friday being only +1....snow guns should get a nice work out overe the weeknd...
     
  33. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    ########## Off topic post ##########
     
  34. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    ########## Off topic post ##########
     
  35. smokkinharry

    smokkinharry First Runs

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    #185 smokkinharry, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  36. Ted.

    Ted. Hard Yards

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    Faith is going to pay off. I still think we'll get +25cm from this all up...

    Nice to see the snow-forcast.com maps have turned all colourful now :)
     
  37. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Sorry fellas,...... just not seeeing 25cm in this IMO......

    10 if we're lucky....... & gale force winds to go with it.

    Not even sure that they'd fire the guns either...... any snow from them would likely end up in Bathurst.
     
  38. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    nice day at top station thredbo,1.8dgs{-28 wind chill},90 km winds.eeeww
     
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking nice and cold but SW direction of the bulk of the system will probably mean bugger all for NSW resorts. Should be very nice for Baw Baw and Buller though.

    If the low that is predicted to form in the Tasman is a little further west Thredbo could do much better from the SE feed.
     
  40. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  41. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    temp plummeted 0.5 dg in half an hour at top station thredbo,cant see any precip tho atm.
     
  42. clubbiesnowsnob

    clubbiesnowsnob Hard Yards

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    For the love of.........plummet baby plumet....
     
  43. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    well Frog is on board for this one and for mine, I'll take his predictions over most here. Calling anything from 15 - 30 cm ( approx) Thursday - Sat, possibly more for Vic resorts. Interestingly he also says that although the models aren't lining up atm his feeling is the next system 19-21st will come off as well.

    Fingers crossed we can get something on the ground that will hang around.

    ( and AndDee - please don't bother telling us again it will all melt away - you've told us enough already - just let us all have a slim glimmer of optimism here for a few days )
     
    #193 luvthabumps, Jun 11, 2008
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  44. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Conservative forecasts giving way to developments from uncertainty in the models. Added snow making will open up some runs...and a chance of a low connecting to a front in a few days after this one....sure the winds will blow, but a start it is and that is always good at any depth. Better than being browned off like an early october run down Mt P. 50cm over the next week as forecasts change to suit the emerging unseen snows.
     
  45. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    I'm on board. This looks good now.

    Interesting to see how accurate the 14 day GFS was.

    It had this on the cards for the +336 hour (although it did vanish with about a week to go).

    Classic winter system. I am not seeing any follow up rain either. Just a big fat HP to keep it nice and cold.
     
  46. Principal Douglas

    Principal Douglas A Local

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    As long as that big fat HP doesn't hang around. We need big follow up snowfalls to build that base up.

    FWIW, I think Frog is right about the 19th to 21st. I think that is going to be big one.
     
  47. saltesc

    saltesc First Runs

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    My past fortnight:
    "Yaaay!"
    "ooooh..."
    "Yaaaay!"
    "awww...."
    "Woooo! Woo woo!!"
    "d'oh!"
    "AAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA I DON'T CARE ANYMORE AAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!"

    I have a feeling Mt P is gonna be ok with plenty to whinge about. I still don't know if I want to push back to July or not.
     
  48. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Latest sat loop feed showing cold air tracking nicely towards Alps - this makes for a pleasant change!
    Last year the Lows/Cold Fronts got to about SA then promptly headed SE (grrrrr..)

    I think we should definitely see some snow out of this (not a huge amount though) but at least it will be, and will remain, cold.

    Phew!
     
  49. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    COLA is suggesting snow down to about 1300m probably settling good from about 1500m.

    Problem is COLA is my only source in OZ, back in France I had access to 7 different models but I haven't found them here.
     
  50. SNOW_dj

    SNOW_dj Hard Yards

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    Even if it's 10cm on Friday or whenever...we won't have to look at those darn green and brown web cams anymore. It'll be nice to finally see some white stuff showing!

    =]