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Predictions: 13th June

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by BH, May 28, 2008.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snorkler. You can access 7 day GASP (BOM) and GFS (COLA) charts at Weatherzone for free. You can also access the Australia specific models run by the BOM (LAPS and MLAPS).

    I've listed some links to other models here:

    http://www.ozbc.net/weather_links.htm
     
    #201 Snow Blowey, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  2. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Green and Brown become such ugly words in winter....except maybe for those moments when new sliders say quietly "now onto blue runs from GREEN runs", and feel happy for their achievement.
     
  3. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    looking like a short burst of snow thurs into fri id say looking at 10-15cm atm more is also welcome though see what this arvos GFS charts have to say [​IMG]
     
    #203 Cliff-jumper_2000, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I've been looking at the BOM's 72hr observations for Port Lincoln (SA) and Casterton (VIC) to see when the wind direction starts to change - I think these readings should give an excellent indication of when the change starts to come through.

    At this stage winds have basically only gone from N to NW - all quiet on the home front...for now!
     
  5. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    on the mixed emotions of the early snow season weather watcher! sooo true..
     
    #205 skimax, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Funny how quickly things can change. ie this arvos GFS to three days ago. Looking like a legit 20-30 cents over a 30 hour period.
    Moisture looks not too shabby for NSW.
    3 days ago we had a 540 line brushing then developing into an intense ECL.
    Snow should be in the forecast for the ST and CT's now.
     
  7. (;optimist

    (;optimist First Runs

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    sorry off topic I know, but this thread is about to hit the 12000 views mark with a couple of days to go, pleanty of despo's... myself included....
     
  8. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    the prefrontal coming through at night on the 4 day should be good for the vic alps
     
  9. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Yes,..... some well needed rain for Vic at the very least.
     
  10. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    I use Mt Lofty (SA) at 730m and Ballarat at 400m to gain an indication. You want a max of about 7 degrees at Mt Lofty to get snow from that direction. I would think winds will be NW for another 24 hrs. Satelite picture looks sweet and hopefully it will drag up that moisture SW of Perth. [​IMG]
     
    #210 Outlooker, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  11. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    #211 mad4snow, Jun 11, 2008
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  12. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Vic BOM

     
    #212 Cuppa, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  13. captain hort

    captain hort First Runs

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    If we get 20cm out of this system with a howling westerly it will at least set up allot of the beginners runs nicely as they are mostly grass. go you good thing
     
  14. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Yep, agreed, very good indicators these ones - even better than the ones I mentioned! [​IMG]

    I'm just another deperado looking for some signs of a promising front, but I think also you'd be looking for winds to change in about 8hrs or so.
    And yes, agreed also on the tastiness of the satellite loop and synoptic (I'm a bit of a traditionalist in these regards)! It's still tracking up nicely from the SW and if the moisture here in Perth goes with it, yee-har fellas, it would be SWEET!!
     
    #214 woggybot, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Having just said wot I said above, winds are now turning NW-W in SA!

    Pssssaaaahh, go you good thing!!!!
     
  16. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yea i rock, kept the faith [​IMG]
     
    #216 Bato, Jun 11, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  17. Kony_Abbott

    Kony_Abbott Hard Yards

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    I'm not a religious guy, but if this one somehow pulls 30+ then we can all construct a Church of the Snow God.
     
  18. saltesc

    saltesc First Runs

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    Looks like it's on. Looking at GFS for the next 48hrs, not to mention that 23cm snow model for the next 48hrs. If that low down south was a little bit higher it would be a great little system. Not complaining though. At the least we should see a few Mt P runs open up. Front Valley just gets boring after a couple of hours of up and down.

    Right now 21st to 23rd looks like it'll dump a good 35-45cm, maybe more. Just have to hope that high keeps pushing north because it's going to be a close one.
     
  19. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    ########## Off Topic Post ##########
     
  20. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ########## Off Topic Post ##########
     
  21. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    i need another snow
     
  22. mad4snow

    mad4snow First Runs

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    #222 mad4snow, Jun 11, 2008
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  23. Annago

    Annago Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sat pic is very interesting. Cold air behind the first frontlooks to be going south but moisture in the following fronts seems to be increasing.
     
  24. cravingsnow

    cravingsnow First Runs

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    yes im a newbie. long time reader, first time poster. with the prediction of snow on the 13th, is it likely that any other trails will be opened by the weekend. im thinking of heading down just for the weekend.
     
  25. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    According to GASP, the moisture is deserting this system.

    I'll stand by my 10cm...... at best.
     
  26. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I'll go with Annago - just checked latest sat loop; moisture definitely increasing, but as is typical of Aus systems like this, looks like it's starting to veer SE...just at the critical point!!

    However, the second front still looks to be on target - wait to see what the morn brings....
     
  27. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Looking quite ridgy this system but it will bring some snow of course. I was expecting a better start this season but hopefully late June and into July brings the goods. The SST anoms are improving at least.
     
  28. Ted.

    Ted. Hard Yards

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    looking forward to the observation thread. I'll stand by my prediction of 25-35cm. The first front was always going to dive SE. The second is were its at :)
     
  29. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Will start snowing in tassie this arvo , its pissi*g down rain here now & cooling down . Should turn to snow above 1000m this arvo & overnight.. May continue into friday..
     
  30. Ted.

    Ted. Hard Yards

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    The frog is on board now with heavy snowfalls at times (15-25cm)
     
  31. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Well if the Frogs on it- im off it 10cm at best- and only on friday.
     
  32. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    GASP is still my main concern...... LAPS is sort of there, but not quite.

    Buller may fare the better from this one.
     
  33. D16371

    D16371 Guest

    Ill call 35 cm. Just feeling a suprise.
     
  34. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    I cant see a lot from the charts as well, maybe 15cm for NSW, bit more for VIC. With most of it coming tonight.
     
  35. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Still sticking to 10 - 15cm for this. The low is not tracking high enough to get the main band of moisture. It does'nt look like it will hang around for long either but it is a welcome start. The snowguns may get a couple of days to do there thing so some runs may be open over the weekend.
     
  36. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    I'd take Gasp charts with a grain of salt.They are way off the mark at least 90% of the time, IMO
     
    #236 slalom pete, Jun 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  37. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Ill go with the NSW BOM.

    The moisture is there briefly but it doesn't hang around long enough for mine.

    10 cents outa this.
     
  38. clubbiesnowsnob

    clubbiesnowsnob Hard Yards

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    Looks like a date with the mountains starting june 23 is spot on at this stage following these two fronts....
     
  39. saltesc

    saltesc First Runs

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    That's what I'm hoping for. We're planning to arrive on the night of the 22nd. Would hate to postpone.
     
    #239 saltesc, Jun 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  40. Apresski

    Apresski Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hooray! The temperature is dropping, we arrive in Falls Creek on the 21st June and I have a daughter who has purchased new boots and skis and can't wait to try them out. Those snow dances must be working.
     
  41. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    All you ever need to see what is coming is a good understanding of BOM charts. Its like watching the ocean to see the wind fetch to predict swell events. All the rest is just a distraction, why, because BOM is a summary of everything available. You can GASP and LASP and FIGGLE but BOM does it all for you.

    25cms minimum is my call now that the whole north west moisture feed (looming in from around Shark Bay WA over the last two weeks) and the south west cold feed (looming up out of the Southern Ocean) have meet up right about where we want them.

    The season starter is here. Go you good thing.
     
    #241 dawooduck, Jun 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  42. quro

    quro First Runs

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    #242 quro, Jun 12, 2008
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  43. (;optimist

    (;optimist First Runs

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    yeh, iteresting to see the forecast high temps following it, any thoughts on if it will stay around to form a base, I guess it will depend on how much falls I supose
     
  44. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Amen to this, although as already mentioned, I think the second front will do the bulk of the snow - I think 20cm all up.

    Do a lil' dance, make a lil' love, let it snow tonight, let it snow tonight!
     
    #244 woggybot, Jun 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  45. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    charts improved more this arvo little colder and little more mositure so im going for my forcast yesterday 10-15cm to 15-20cm now [​IMG]
     
    #245 Cliff-jumper_2000, Jun 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. Loister

    Loister Hard Yards

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    .... and it looks like it'll be good conds for the snowmakers as well.
    [​IMG]
     
    #246 Loister, Jun 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Well I'm going to go for something a little different. Sat pic to me shows cold air starting to be pulled into a moist north westerly airstream so sometime in the morning tomorrow I'm expecting a good burst of snow at resorts that do well from the NW. Hotham/Falls/ the snowies and if it goes far enough north Selwyn even to get a hit.

    Once that main band passes snow will taper off to light falls quickly though IMO and be gone by Saturday morning.
     
  48. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    10-20cm my guess, heavier snowfall won't persist long enough to get more than that although would not be suprised to see one or two mtns in just the right spot push 20cm from the north westerly flow, maybe Hotham and Falls. Well thats my prediction anyway.
     
  49. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not as optimistic as most. I'm sticking with 10cm for NSW resorts. 20cm at Baw Baw and buller.

    The bulk of the pre frontal (NW) moisture looks like missing NSW and the SW stream won't produce much. It's also a very fast moving. Should be a good trial for snowy hydro cloud seeding though. Dry SW streams have been quite rare since they started the trial.

    Meso LAPS shows the situation well with more precipitation occurring in the southern parts of the alps and less falling in the precipitation shadow behind (which includes Thredbo and Perisher. Selwyn could do a little better than those two.
     
  50. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    I'm predicting 6cm by sunday at PB for this weekend. Hope I'm wrong.