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Predictions: 17-22nd June.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jun 7, 2011.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see no one else has picked up on this one yet. At the moment I can only see AXS going at it, but the strong high that is planning on moving in after the current system passes will leave a gap for a system once it moves East. I can see potential for a system here, looking a bit like a 20cms system at this stage. Sorry cant post up a chart at work but will endeavor to do so when I get home tonight. Im actually surprised there isnt a thread on this already. I should point out there isnt mega strong indicators for this system yet, and LWT and other longer-range indicators arent on board, but I can see something brewing here.
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    There was a thread
    for this date range as well
    Snowrunna started it.
    Its brewing
    bru
    [​IMG]
     
    #2 Donza, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    As foreshadowed...

    Not AFAICT. That was 11th-15th (locked, and restarted). Incidentally, the middle day there (13th) now looks to be dead-set centre of a massive 1030+hPa high, so that was a top call. Might be worth holding off on starting threads until there's at least something there.
     
    #3 Gerg, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    alas...I might have been presumptuous.

    though I agree.
    starting threads from miles out is silly...
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Ok - stay on topic.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    EC is "out there" for the 16th & 17th, IMO

    Look on the 15th and there's nothing there. Then on the 16th, hey presto!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Anyway we don't want it to come off as EC predicts, it's a pineapple express IMO ....
     
    #6 Claude Cat, Jun 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Bug in works?
     
  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    AXS likes this this morning but the 240hr chart looks a bit made up.
     
  9. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GFS has an ecl [​IMG]
     
    #9 smitty484, Jun 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    And EC has completely changed.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Look familiar? (9am GFS run)

    [​IMG]
     
    #11 Claude Cat, Jun 8, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Have they got today's run mixed up with 17/6 am run?
     
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Like this.
     
  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Access G showing something special tonight. Very special. Though EC / GFS not on board.

    I'm just daydreaming here...
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    It's certainly very volatile on the models at the moment. Potential, but I think we're a few days away from a clearer picture.
     
  16. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Time to re-focus. Peaking too early for mine (not static):

    [​IMG]

    Big low progged for a long time off northern NSW is interesting (belongs in the surf thread...):

    [​IMG]

    Might be something on the tail end, in the week following.
     
    #16 Gerg, Jun 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    AXS not liking it so much this morning, GFS thinks it's a good thing though, which it hasnt up until now. LWT is 'almost' right for my liking, so give it another 4 days and we'll know more about it. In any case it looks like there will be weather during these dates. The ECL is a strange one, AXS has it hanging around for ages whilst for once in its life GFS has it moving on quicker.
     
  18. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Been looking at that chart and wondering...what would happen if that low moved onto NZ at the same time as the high over WA moved east to push a nice deep sou-westerly fetch our way?
     
  19. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    That's pretty much what GFS has right out there in 300+hr territory, after spawning yet another low on the northern NSW coast. Hence the throw-away comment about something in the week following the weekend of 18th-19th.
     
  20. walrusball

    walrusball First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Im no expert, but IMO this one looks good. After looking at all the squiggly lines to the West of us, i think we're in for it. So i am booking some accom for late June. [​IMG] Hoorah!!
     
    #20 walrusball, Jun 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    AXS update would be nice, sometime before Christmas.
     
  22. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    AXS looks to have given up... yet looks very dodgy at the same time
    still, I must say a lot of potential IMO
    wait a few days and see what the models say
     
  23. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GFS still looks good on the extended forecast.
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    I'm going to declare this a goer...
    on the strength of EC and LWT
    thats all
     
  25. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    damn i wish I was more familiar with your terminology donza haha what do you mean by "a goer"?!
     
  26. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    CC !!!!!!!!!!
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Stay on topic.

    IMO neither GFS or EC are very encouraging this morning.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GFS liking this more than AXS this morning, but looking at AXS it goes screwy around 144-168hrs, so I wouldnt trust it anyway. LWT is even better than yesterday. Still potential, something is going to happen here.

    PS - Perth will be smashed Tues/Weds. IMO.
     
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Make sure you post "IMO" or " think that....", etc, when posting opinions.

    People who are unfamiliar with this site may think it actually going to happen!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #29 Sandy, Jun 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Sure no problems Sandy, but the way the models are going it is almost certainly fact as far as Perth is concerned!
     
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Models uncertain with high placement as you would expect. LWT is really good IMO.

    However, both EC and AXS predicting ECL's. Not something I like at all.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GFS hinting at a cutoff..
     
  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Agreed.
     
  34. crazyman

    crazyman Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GFS +168hr predicts the 540 line to reach resorts. I'm guessing that is a good sign. Prolly way too far out though to even consider.
     
  35. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    This morning AXS and GFS show the ECL heading out into the tasman on Thursday, IMO this is a good sign
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    C'mon baby work for me! It's still looking alright.
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Spaghetti plot is either stuffed or genuinely has NFI after about 36hrs out.
     
  38. Snow Happy

    Snow Happy Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    My prediction of 20cm up high above 1500mm. Its early in the season, and its been cold. Anyway moisture is good for the dams and I hoping Lake Eildon will be 100% in Spring.
     
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    I think the models are having trouble working out where to put the high because of the ECL. It makes me think it's not worth looking at anything over 96hrs at this stage.
     
  40. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    You were partly right Donza, SnowRunna did mention another system on the 18th in his thread for the 11th to 15th but he did not start a new thread for it.

    Temp is still too far out to predict at this stage, but the shape and positioning of the high is looking good for a driving SW wind. Just need a few fronts to join the mix and this one could be a goer imo.
     
  41. crazyman

    crazyman Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Weather forum seems to be quiet. Is this because nobody has much hope for this system? Or it chop and changes too much more than 12hrs out?
     
  42. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GASP Mk2 (err, Access-G) ... too warm IMO (not static):

    [​IMG]

    ECMWF has similar pattern, and agrees too warm:

    [​IMG]
     
    #42 Gerg, Jun 13, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    And pressure to high, IMO. Been too busy to keep track of this the past few days but tomorrow ill have a good look.
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Looking interesting on GFS...seems to be truely improving
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    again..subtle upgrade...
    duration looking good for NSW, might be double system
     
  46. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    GFS looking good on +120 hours IMO
    some cool air and moisture, this could become something IMO
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Current ECL still making this system too hard to call IMO - re high placement / movement. No shortage of low pressure systems in the vicinity though. Charts be tossing up a few possibilities for the next few days, but should come into line in the next 48 hours I would think

    Dates should be extended to 22nd.
     
  48. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Indeed this system has been slowly but surely upgraded over the past few days and heres hoping it wont stop now!

    I dont think temps will be too much of an issue. snow down to 1300m and 15cm above 1600m for me!!
     
  49. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Spag is still looking for something cold (not static):

    [​IMG]

    As forecast long ago, best chance may be something on the tail end, in the week following. IMO.
     
    #49 Gerg, Jun 14, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Predictions: 17-20th June.

    Looks good.