Predictions: 17-22nd June.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jun 7, 2011.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I am most excited about the potential of Falls / Hotham picking up a massive amount of snow in initial NW'ly to W'ly winds. If they do, this will be a "season starter" if you like for them.

    Also Melbourne could hit sub 1000hPa.

     
  2. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    In addition to my above, the peaking of systems over WA can be attributed to the warmer waters sitting off the WA coast.

    There is a nice warm pool off Southern WA with a few warm bubbles making it past the Southern Tip of WA and into the bite.

    The effect of the warm pools will be minimal over the Alps over the next 3 weeks but the small bubbles in the bite may help to strengthen the low moving through the bite on Sun/Mon and hopefully peak in the SW Tasman on Mon/Tues. IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
    #152 Katanga, Jun 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Latest GFS for 850temps still show them about the same as this mornings (see chart posted a page back). So GFS not convinced unfortuently.
     
  4. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    All 00Z forecasts are already out.

    The latest BoM forecast is the most 'bullish' of all its competitors when it comes to the size of the cold pool over Monday and Tuesday. ACCESS has gone out on a limb at +120 hours versus EC, UKMO and NCEP.

    +96 hours, BoM and EC look very similar...UKMO and NCEP are the same as well but not as optimistic as the first pair.
     
  5. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Spot on Infact. Falls always does best from a cold NW system. It gets funneled down the Kiewa Valley and dumps big time over the Maze, Summit and Village.

    Been a long time since I have seen the Summit Cornice.
     
    #155 Katanga, Jun 17, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  6. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    BoM calling snow down to 800m on Tuesday... this stemmed from almost nothing only a few days ago!
     
  7. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    That's Vic BOM?

    NSW BOM:
    Huh ... What sort of forecast is that? "Scattered showers ... with moderate to heavy falls"? Bring back the old Snowy Mts Regional Forecast.
     
    #157 Gerg, Jun 17, 2011
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  8. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    BoM Covering all bases its seems (as usual)
     
    #158 Katanga, Jun 17, 2011
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  9. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks good to me on Tuesday.

    Vic BOM not very enthusiastic though.
     
  10. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    ACCESSG looking very nice on Tuesday IMO
    GFS looks a little bit off at this time but IMO it will sort it self out eventually
     
  11. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

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    BOM Australia showing a high amount of precipitation on Tuesday. Hopefully the temperatures will also be in line for a 20-40cm dump.

    [​IMG][/url][/img]
     
    #161 Acav, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Don't know about that, 9am GFS has that wow look to me.

    [​IMG]

    Models haven't changed too much overnight. Monday still slightly on the warm side, IMO, but perhaps less moisture (which is ok), but by Tuesday it is certainly looking like a nice system.
     
    #162 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  13. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

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    Terminology questions:

    What does ACCESSG and GFS mean?

    Sorry if the answers are really obvious.
     
  14. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Vic BOM not on board yet

    Monday 20 June
    Baw Baw 0 5 Rain developing. Very windy.
    Falls Creek 1 3 Rain developing. Windy.
    Mount Buller 0 3 Rain developing. Windy.
    Mount Hotham 1 2 Rain developing. Windy.
    Tuesday 21 June
    Baw Baw 0 0 Windy. Few late snow showers.
    Falls Creek 0 0 Snow showers.
    Mount Buller 0 0 Snow showers. Windy
    Mount Hotham -1 -1 Snow showers. Windy.
     
  15. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    The high has done its job nicely, sitting back SW of Perth with nice shape allowing a classic SW system to come through. All things looking good IMO for 30-50cm above 1600m from Monday afternoon through till Wednesday with maps in alignment.
     
  16. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Here is how I see it this morning:

    Saturday: Showers, falling as rain through most elevations - only wet snow on the peaks from this afternoon. 2 to 5 mm of rain, 10 mm for Baw Baw.

    Sunday: Showers, falling as rain through most elevations - only wet snow on the peaks. A period of rain at night - falling as a rain/snow mix on higher slopes. 5 to 10 mm of rain/wet snow.

    Monday: The chance of rain showers. 2 to 5 mm of rain.

    Overnight Monday and Tuesday: Rain starts Monday night and turns to heavy snow by early Tuesday (pre-dawn), lowering throughout the alpine. Snow showers follow from Tuesday afternoon. Around 10 mm of rain then 30 to 40 cm of snow by Wednesday/Thursday.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    All different computer models.
    GFS = Global Forecast System (from the US)
    ACCESS (G, R etc) from the BOM
    EC = Euro model
    CMC = Canada
    JMC = Japan

    etc

    See the weather links thread.
     
    #167 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  18. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    I predict that more than a just a little prefrontal will make me one unhappy chappy!! [​IMG]

    Really however, although its good to preserve what we already have. I'll be happy (well....content) with about 10mm of prefrontal if this 30-40cm eventuates [​IMG]
     
    #168 Prokasaurus, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  19. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict 60cms of snow over the next week and bugger all rain
     
  20. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mick thats not unusual IMHO - vic bom seem generally more cautious predicting snow elevations & amounts than nsw.
    do our experts think thats a fair call?
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep that's the general view of things.
     
  22. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

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    bustin air somewhere
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Holy shite at GFS 3pm
    thats a 2 feet storm
    plus
    IMO
     
  24. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    Just looked at that as well, geezez GFS has gone all in at 72 hours out
    we could be looking at 50 cm+ if that comes off IMO
    lets see what ACCESS says on its next update
     
    #174 Bilza_Skis, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. slalom pete

    slalom pete Hard Yards

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    Geez Vic Bom need to get their act together with their lame non descript forecasts.Wow a few snow showers everyday really tells you a lot.I wish they would follow Nsw Bom lead and bring out more detailed forecasts.
     
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    At only 3 days out the models can't agree on the most important thing. Is a low going to develop over TAS and deepen when it hits the tasman.

    GFS has this back on the cards tonight, AXS - R does not.
     
  27. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    ACCESSG is out and it looks to be aligning with GFS IMO
    Nice dump of snow to be seen next week !!!!!!
    IMO
     
  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Both are very good but they are miles apart.

    Although both models have the Highs in the same location and at the same intensity...

    GFS has a low developing over Tasmania and strengthening in the Tasman Sea while moving in an NE direction (red arrow) before weakening

    [​IMG]

    However, AXS has a low developing south of Tasmania, and sliding SE before weakening

    [​IMG]

    The GFS scenario is quite "out there" but is entirely plausible as we know if the low follows that path it will strengthen when it moves into the Tasman, with the warm SST's (happened in our last two systems).

    Ignoring moisture values on the above charts, if the scenario being predicted by GFS came true, we could see almost double the snow fall, in my opinion.
     
    #178 Stratus, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  29. JustinH

    JustinH Hard Yards

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    Most likely scenario then??
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO GFS is on it's own with the low heading east.
    EC, ACCESS, CMC, UKmet all have the low forming just west of Tasmania and heading SSE.
    IMO EC / ACCESS scenario we get 40cm after 5-10mm pre-frontal.
    If GFS is right, then we can perhaps add another 20cm on top of that.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC (IMO)
     
    #181 Claude Cat, Jun 18, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO A mix between GFS and AXS is my bet. I cant see a cutoff like GFS is predicting, but the models have been crap (in a good way) so far this season, so i'm prepared to give GFS's scenario a shot.

    Still calling a foot.
     
  33. JustinH

    JustinH Hard Yards

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    #183 JustinH, Jun 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  34. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh the low is positioned a lot further south on gfs this morning
     
  35. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    ^^I hope it is the right one cos I am a Buller skier!!
     
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    How so?
    GFS often overvalues moisture.
    Given that most cold moisture will be under a SW flow the accum chart you have linked provides a reasonable indication of where the greater falls are likely.
    However, my gut feel would be to divide Buller accumulation predictions by 2 and maybe double + amounts for predictions resorts further east.
    eg 40cm for Buller (as opposed to 70) and 25cm for the others.
    Baw Baw the wild card. Maybe the same as Buller.
    Either way I reckon Buller and Wab Wab will do best.
     
    #186 The Plowking, Jun 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS is now in line with what EC and the other models were showing last night. IMO
    Still good for 30 to 40cm on today's charts.

    I still think this favors the higher and NSW resorts.
     
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has come in line with EC and looks to slide SE- as most systems do of course.
    Still good snow in it I reckon.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow level could be as low as 1000m on Tuesday night. 540 line almost in QLD and 500mb showing it very deep. The moisture predictions may be under-estimating because of this. IMO.
     
  40. JustinH

    JustinH Hard Yards

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    Plowking - That same link yesterday had alot more purple on it compared to today... Thredbo Purple yesterday to today Light Blue.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Settle.
    9am GFS run

    [​IMG]

    Plenty of moisture there, IMO, even allowing for 5 to 10mm pre-frontal.
     
    #191 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like ive said CC underestimate this one at your peril. Do not be surprised at 50cms.
     
  43. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unless a forming low gets very cut off SW of Adelaide, rather than SW of Tassie, I don't think there will be nearly that much snow....

    The system looks like it will move quickly, which also points to less snow.
     
  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Yep, GFS has fallen back in line with the others.

    850temps have increased on AXS (G & R), similar now to what GFS is suggesting. I'm not as confident with the amount of snow that will be picked up from the NW'ly / W'ly now, we'll have to see though.

    I am going to predict 35cm across the board, with Perisher 45cm.
     
  45. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    when we get this close to an event I find that its good to use Access A

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=A

    has a resolution of 12km , vs GFS's 27km i believe, although I may be wrong

    either way we are looking at the front to hit tuesday morning somewhere between 4 and 7am, at this stage looks like quite a nice rain band, around 20cm in between 4am and 10am going by the chart. Note the chart below displays 3 hourly precip

    [​IMG]



    would love to see ACCESS C again, it is unbelievable with its 5km resolution you picks up all sea breezes and valley funneling wind effects.
     
    #195 ben4386, Jun 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  46. oxypHos

    oxypHos First Runs

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    shall be an interesting system, if it plays out the way we all wish.

    Btw, does anyone know where mountainwatch source the data from which they predict snow? they appear to be calling for some pretty hefty falls, and IMO aren't consistent with most of the predictions in these forums, or resultant snow falls
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Mountain watch forecasts are automatically generated making them typically BS and un-reliable. Not sure which model it is based on though.
     
  48. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    If mountainwatch forecasts eventuate were set for the winter!! =D

    I dont think were in for quite that much tho haha but still I cant wait!!
     
  49. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

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    they use GFS which is odd because snowforecast.com also use GFS and yet they both have vastly different forecasts


    they gave a description of their model

    http://www.mountainwatch.com/Features/fe...watch-Forecasts

    this is the current buller snow-forecast forecast

    http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mount-Buller/6day/top

    current mountainwatch

    http://www.mountainwatch.com/Forecasts/Australia/Mount%20Buller

    that is the biggest croc have ever read, I have done verification of Boms OCF forecasts and I can tell you no model is 99% accurate 1 day out, it doesn't even specify how they are accurate , wind , temperature, snowfall amount.
     
    #199 ben4386, Jun 19, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.