Predictions: 17-22nd June.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jun 7, 2011.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    deleted - off topic.

    The point has already been made, and this thread is for predictions only.
     
    #201 Stratus, Jun 19, 2011
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  2. notty

    notty Addicted

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    Mountain Watch is predicting 51cm at Perisher on tuesday

    accuracy comments deleted - point has been made earlier in this thread
     
    #202 notty, Jun 19, 2011
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  3. dopestylesss

    dopestylesss Hard Yards

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    deleted off topic
     
    #203 dopestylesss, Jun 19, 2011
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  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looking pretty damn tasty IMO.......a classic winter westerly cold front in the making......pressure could fall below 1000hPa [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #204 FourSquare04, Jun 19, 2011
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  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nice little trough for wednesday also.
     
  6. Acav

    Acav Hard Yards

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    - deleted off topic.

    I have updated the original post.
     
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Lots of windblown snow with this system too - snow depths to vary across resorts (captain obvious perhaps).
     
  8. jontsy

    jontsy Hard Yards

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    Looks like the high is moving relatively qucikly too so perhaps more snow not long after this system?
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    going off that chart posted above and this mornings AXS -R I think a couple of things have tipped in our favour
    -duration . Its improved. I was a bit worried that it would be all over red rover pretty fast. We'll have a much longer duration now with embedded SW stream.
    -trough (dotted line 10am wednesday) in the SW stream. instabilty in the uppers. good. I like that. Means there is still plenty cooking.

     
  10. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    My take on it this morning:

    ALPINE FORECAST

    REST OF TODAY

    Light rain at times, falling as sleet on the peaks. A heavy band of rain starts late tonight, heading northeastwards. Winds are gale force with gusts over 100 km/h.

    TUESDAY

    A heavy band of rain quickly turns to heavy snow early morning, lowering throughout the alpine by dawn. Persistent snow follows. Winds are cold and gale force with gusts over 100 km/h.

    WEDNESDAY

    Persistent snow turning to drizzly rain/sleet later. The snow level starts at around 1000 metres in the morning and retreats to the alpine in the afternoon then the peaks at night. Winds are strong.

    THURSDAY

    Plenty of showers, only as sleet on the peaks. Winds moderating.

    FRIDAY

    Just the chance of a rain shower – likely to be dry. Lighter winds.

    TOTALS

    20 to 30 mm of rain/very wet snow to 9am this morning (but little at Baw Baw). Another 5 mm of light rain/very wet snow today. Around 10 mm in the heavy rain before it is all snow – 30 to 40 cm is likely by later Wednesday. After that its only 5 mm of rain/wet snow showers to follow.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    what a little ripper
     
    #211 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's winding up like John Wayne to take a swing at us.
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    duke.

    indeed it is...few stormies in that sat pic as well
    me thinks you'll get gruelly hail when it comes ashore
     
    #213 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
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  14. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    IMO Perfect for base building!!!

    Wet
    Snow
    Wet

    Just needs a good freeze afterwards

    IMO
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    wild winds forecast for NSW

    up to 160 kmph for Alpine Areas
    120 for Wollongong, Sydney, Canberra.
    wow

    latest. back to 120 gusts for alpine and 90 for metro
     
  16. damian

    damian A Local

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    IMO a lot of scouring and even more sublimation of transported snow may see Xcm fall, but much less than Xcm settle at treeline and above.

    One thing [unpopular] modeling services have had consistent day to day for a week or so no have been high winds with this event.
     
    #216 damian, Jun 20, 2011
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  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah.. lucky alot of the resorts have some big lee slopes. Thredbo is a prime example.
    A 120 kmph Norwest wind will amplyfy the amout of snow over the ridge line.
    Parts of Perisher are similar.
    A strong gradient also helps orographic lifting. Increasing moisture.
     
    #217 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
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  18. damian

    damian A Local

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    Unless a lot of it sublimates. Though high humidity may reduce that effect.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Du1CnhCPI

    Lee-side loading always prefers winds below 60kph or so (that is what I've always been told. Just tried to find a source in my books but couldn't)

    I doubt that it will be of importance. There will probably be (imo) plenty of lee side accumulation at some stage during the storm.
     
    #218 damian, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/wea...0620-1gapb.html

     
    #219 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2011
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  20. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Are people thinking closer to 30cm or 60cm as we strap ourselves in for this!?
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon some of my trees will have some damage by the morning! IMO
     
  22. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    ACCESSR predicting cold air between 4am-7am still for the VIC ALPS
     
  23. Hobber

    Hobber A Local

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    Thredbo loves a bit of wind to fill in the top of the mountain.
     
  24. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does that mean that Highplains will see Cope Hut side getting plastered with wind blown stuff from the Niggerheads/Fainters massive.
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    AXS_R is predicting around 40-55cm of snow for NSW IMO.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The right wind..which this will be...direction.

    anyways we'll end up off topic here, but if you look at AXS-R you can see a bow wave of moisture. Winds there will be very strong Nor nor west.
    temps look ok and as the wind is wrapping around from the front i expect that bowwave moisture to fall as snow above 1600 intailly from 7am in NSW.
    by lunchtime it will be nuking.
     
    #226 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I have been conservative all along, and still think 30 to 40cm, with the higher resorts (1600m+) & NSW perhaps at the top end of that estimate, and down south at the bottom end.
    I think Donza and Verm are more bullish than me, but lets see...
     
    #227 Claude Cat, Jun 20, 2011
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  28. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    i,m liking the look of the latest BOM MSL chart, looks like the winds
    are coming from Antarctic regions.
    Low intensifying , pressure dropping.
    I predict 50 cm +.
     
  29. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    Haha yeah and recognising that some conservatism is never a bad thing for keeping us all on earth, you wont blame me for hoping that they have picked this one better than you CC [​IMG]
     
    #229 Prokasaurus, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personally, I can't see anything like 40-50cm. IMO, the system is moving way too quickly, and the cut off low will be way too far south....

    Still, early season southerlies can produce unexpected snowfalls in the southern areas.
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I reckon around 27-30 hours of prime..so yeah 40 plus is alot..but i reckon we could see around 20 in the first band...in a matter of hours..20 in 5 hours...
    then 25 in 25 hours is possible
    thats 4cm per hour first band..
    not unfeasible
     
    #231 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
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  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey dont go grouping me with that kiwi Donza I said 30cms for Buller.
     
    #232 Vermillion, Jun 20, 2011
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  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/strongest-wind-in-years-and-it-will-only-get-windier/17773

    Some parts of Victoria and South Australia have just recorded their strongest wind in years and it is only going to get windier.

    By early Monday afternoon northwesterlies had reached 104km/h at Aireys Inlet, on Victoria's South West coast, the windiest it has been at that location since winter 2009.

    In South Australia, it hasn't been as windy, but windy enough near the coasts earlier today to have knocked down the wall of house in Port MacDonnell, near Mt Gambier.

    Severe weather warnings have been issued for parts of SA, Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales as an intense low swings a strong cold front across the region tonight and tomorrow.

    Wind is yet to peak, but it will most likely do so in SA and Tasmania by early this evening, in Victoria and southern NSW tonight and central NSW, including Sydney tomorrow.

    Wind is likely to exceed 100km/h on the coasts, hills and mountains in each state and get as strong as 120-to-130km/h on the highlands. Significant damage is on the cards, including downed trees and powerlines.

    For many areas this will be the strongest wind for the year so far. For some it is likely to be the strongest in several years.
     
    #233 skiflat, Jun 20, 2011
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  34. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    How's the pressure looking?
     
  35. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    The sat loop is building nicely.

    [​IMG]

    There is some nice speckled cloud at the tail of the second cloudband that seems to be pushing NE so it will hopefully hit NSW full force.
     
    #235 Katanga, Jun 20, 2011
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  36. Bilza_Skis

    Bilza_Skis First Runs

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    3 pm GFS looks like it downgraded (slightly) IMO
    at one day out im probably going for anywhere between 20-40 cm
    but there are always surprises [​IMG]
     
    #236 Bilza_Skis, Jun 20, 2011
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  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats the location of the cold pool IMO
     
    #237 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    I think you're right Donza and the loop seems to show the speckled intensifying as it heads towards the Vic coast.

    If the guts of this system (second cloudband tail) hits the NSW/Vic Alps border, we could be in for a 50cm surprise IMO.
     
    #238 Katanga, Jun 20, 2011
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  39. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Diggin the position of the high as progged by ACCESS atm. Should be on rails all the way to the border if the high keeps from ridging. SW'ly flow should remain sustained until tomorrow morning/early arvo as well.
     
  40. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Might be a bit of wishful thinking but the BoM IO MSLP is showing a small low developing south of Adl. So we may still see a sneaky Low develope overnight and move over Tas.

    Its a long shot, but still a possibility IMO.

    In anycase, the main low is driving winds in from Antarctica so it should be cold by Wed.

    [​IMG]
     
    #240 Katanga, Jun 20, 2011
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  41. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    IMO Old faithful GFS for Buller... Yeh I am reading off the charts but that's okay IMO

    About 5mm before the cold air around 7am....
    hen about 10-15cms in a few hours!!!
    Then another 5cms or so in the 24 hours after, but looking colder than previously now [​IMG]
    Then the wicked westerlies kick in for about 5-10mm of rain perhaps [​IMG]


    AccessR for Buller
    About the same as above but going for 20-30cms of snow, then 5-10mm of rain


    So Buller.....
    15-30cms followed by some rain/sleet/snow maybe.....

    IMO Looks like Verm could be right [​IMG]

    IMO I am sure the models are looking slightly colder than previous runs...
     
    #241 skiflat, Jun 20, 2011
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  42. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Looking at the sat loop, the low mentioned in the above chart is already sliding south east so it is a very long shot.

    On a better note, if you look at the below BoM charts, there could be another burst of snow Wed IMO.

    If you look at the Wed 10am chart, you see a speed hump west of Tas that indicates a developing trough. By 10pm Wed, the "speed hump" is sitting east of Tas and by 10am Thurs, this speed hump has developed into a low NW of NZ.

    This could be good for us between 10am Wed and 10pm Wed depending on how this trough developes imo.

    [​IMG]
     
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Last minute downgrade on the charts, however this is still a 30cm minimum across the board system IMO. It is going to absolutely puke in a short period of time. Some areas will have windblown up to 40cm - 50cm.

    Now the waiting begins [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #243 Stratus, Jun 20, 2011
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  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    [​IMG]
     
    #244 Stratus, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Cheers Infact. The chart would not post for some reason.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure doesn't look to sink much below 1000 hPa. I think they'll be a rain to follow up. 10-15 cm on Buller will fall IMO.
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    we'll get 46cm at perisher by weeks end
    so there

    btw i'm not plagerising snowmi on WZ, i just noticed it on ABC news as well.
    Looking at the progging of the dust cloud it seems as though its been really caught up in this cold change.
    They had a diagram with the course taken over the past 72 hours and it mirrors this change. Sweeping up from way south right over adelaide
    I'll go off and hunt for a chart
     
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Weatherzone only calling for 15cm - 30cm.
     
  49. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ABC news calling 30cm to 800..
    800 snowlevel if its still snowing well will be a double at perisher IMO
    Thats experience
     
  50. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Weather Channel calling for snow to 700m in Vic and 800m in NSW. They are also calling gusts up to 160KPH.

    Higher areas will get blasted but the accum on lower slopes should be above 50cm IMO.