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Predictions: 17-22nd June.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jun 7, 2011.

  1. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    In an ideal world (for this system), we will get 25cm of wet snow from the first front that will then freeze over the next 2 hours followed by another 20cm of dry snow once the speckled hits.

    That way we get a shallow base followed by some dry stuff in the resorts and NSW will do even better as the dry stuff is blown into the resorts off the main range once the speckled hits and will fill up a lot of the holes.
     
  2. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    I observe that WZ has now updated and have predicted the trough line that I called for Wed. (Head gets bigger)

    [​IMG]
     
    #252 Katanga, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO that might not be good. GFS is predicting a freeze level of 1800 - 2000m at time.
     
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    BoM was calling for that trough line a couple of days ago, but gave up on it.

    I agree with Claude, not ideal with a WSW'ly.
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah, will only be good at perisher IMO
    westerly and high freeze. Rain at Buller
    we had one like that last year. snowing well at Perisher and drizzle at Buller.
    All off the the westerly belt
     
  6. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] don't like that chart at all
     
    #256 luvthabumps, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Sorry all, being a bit selfish as my first trip in the next weekend or two will be to Perisher so we get a bit spoilt with these more marginal systems.

    Still think this trough may surprise for a sneaky 10cm given the good draw on Tues bringing in some very cold temps later in the day that will hopefully linger into Wed Morning.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As I've said all along this system favours the high ...
    IMO
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    i've agreed all along..and hence why i call for perisher

    we really do need to make the distinctions hey.

    I have a new name for a system like this.
    Its a slinger
     
    #259 Donza, Jun 20, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Slinger??? Like in Perislinger?
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  12. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Lightning strikes in the bight slowly tracking east with massive cold burst heading nor east .this is a balloon about to pop .I remember sitting at the Cabramurra lodge with anxious friends and family in 2003 watching a similar system similar time of year .Early snow in the season then not much but enough to keep you interested . We got there , No snow warmish and watching thunderstorms slowly approach from the west ,belting rain for 30 mins ,then silence ,and within hrs 20 cm fresh and skiing in the middle of the night and then 3 days of great skiing on a very good 30 -40 cm .Bring it on huey
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's hope the initial air mass is quite cold....

    Winds that strong(100kph+) will rise quickly when it hits the mountains, not allowing the air to cool as much as it does if it's coming in at 30-40kph.

    It also means that the cloud doesn't persist as long, so not as much snow falls.
     
  14. damian

    damian A Local

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    And sublimation.
     
  15. VSG

    VSG Crayon Master Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am tipping...


    21.6.11
    snow above 1000m. Very strong winds.. 45km/h avg
    20cm snow

    22.6.11
    Strong winds. Light snow on peaks. 1900m plus.
     
  16. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    so this is where we stand, the 'speckled' stuff to come. The next system is a little way off, any thoughts on how things may shape up in the days afterwards? Strong winds and snow showers are a given for now but into the weekend or early next week?
     
    #266 piolet, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

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    how long will it stay cold enough for snowmaking after this front goes through?
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    the problem will be the dew points will eb quite high with the moderate westerly wind.
    eg snowmaking will be fine wednesday and thursday with dp of neg 5
    but that pushes up on friday to zero.
    they'd be blowing rainbows in that sorta weather.
    gets better on the weekend.
     
    #268 Donza, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  19. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to warm up rapidly.
    Snow making over by am tomorrow I reckon.
     
    #269 The Plowking, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    where?
     
    #270 Donza, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. Prokasaurus

    Prokasaurus Hard Yards

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    snow level of 1000m forecast for am tomorrow Im doubtful that it will be too warm for snowmaking @ the resorts that early
     
  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Snowmaking should be good until Thursday AM I would imagine. It looks to get a bit wet and soggy after that with The westerlies. !
     
  23. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    BoM have upgraded the Wed Trough predicted earlier. The below chart now shows it as a sneaky front so hopefully the temps will be low enough to benefit resorts above 1500m.

    [​IMG]
     
    #273 Katanga, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Double post
     
  25. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Delete "?2011-Jun-21-04:10:18" from your link. (You want it ending with .gif)
     
  26. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Sweet, thanks Infact
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Temps will be ok until tomorrow evening, IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #277 Claude Cat, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    radar looks great IMO. I think these fronts passing regularly through Melb will all make it over the resorts. I think the totals will be very nice at the end of the day tomorrow.
     
  29. GSea

    GSea Hard Yards

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    Could be some snow / sleet IMO on the NSW northern tablelands, Stanthorpe
    regions tonight if the moisture keeps heading northwards. [​IMG]
     
    #279 GSea, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Rainband hitting Armidale and out to Moree in the next 30 Min so moisture should not be a problem.
     
    #280 Katanga, Jun 21, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Westerly flow is cold enough even for Buller to fall as snow, so some good totals will be gained tonight.
     
  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    This system delivered a little less then I expected for Falls / Hotham...i was expecting more snow earlier on with the frontal band from the NW. The temps remained very good before the system hit, but not good enough to make use of the early juice. Overall good result for the system. Snow depth measurements will be somewhat skewed due to the high winds (areas that have picked up a good drift could have double the snow).

    The charts show the main cold airmass to move on by midnight tonight, however it should still remain cold until Friday (good for snowmaking today and tonight I hope).

    A few snow showers today for Buller, Lake Mountain and Baw Baw.

     
  33. VSG

    VSG Crayon Master Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    off topic deleted.
     
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    off topic deleted.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok - enough.