Predictions Predictions: 20th-23rd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 14, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bight-peaking Low is reinforced by a secondary Low on EC, due 20/21st May on 12Z. Inline and supported by UKMET, which has some trend.


    GFS and the Canuck starting to settle on a cut off spanning the Bight into the SE, which I am dubious of.
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    We have been talking about this for a while, time for a thread....

    EC with a strong cold front, after the first trough dragging across the Bight on the 20th/21st


    GFS 18z shows a stronger low in the Bight, but follows up with a deeper colder low pressure system pushing north into NSW from the south on the 21st/22nd/23rd


    CMC 12z doesn’t feature a great deal of cold, dragging a trough across the Bight to hit SE Australia 21st/22nd.


    Ensemble support for this period for some time now.
    The progression will be interesting going forward.
     
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  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  4. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z GMAO deformation zone for cutting off a low in the jet roughly in-between 34s-45s. Global models are very dependent on satellite data input for model assimilation . In the shem nasa with there polar coverage is second to none.


     
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  5. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    CMC 12Z run @21 500mb looking about -25 range on the plot. 700mb between -7 -10. 700mb only needs be @ -4

    That was the run. Pressure looks questionable on the run.



     
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    JMA's 13/12z thickness solution over the lower se. Tassie touchup and cold snap sweeping over vic.
     
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  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z icon had the modeled low just offshore of SA @03 20th.




    Surface wind speed forecast for coffin bay at..

     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z looks like it’s getting closer to confluence with the EC scenario this morning:


    Earlier cut-off short wave node in the Bight weakened and pushed south.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bring that on.
    GFS looking a match with UKMET’s introduction IMO.
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC looks quite messy on 00z, holding onto that cutoff and some other weird low stuff, and a follow up on the 24th.
    I guess at least it’s moving the cold towards SE Australia, a step in the right direction.
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Bom 4 dayer starting to show it too. A solid base before June. epic. Every winter should be like this

    [​IMG]
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    gem-all-newsouthwales-t500-0278400.png gem-all-newsouthwales-t700-0267600.png gem-all-newsouthwales-vort700_z700-0278400 (1).png






    The end of the cmc run. You would think that mass moves east. If those plots verify with a closed isobar @700mb as displayed. Lots and lots of white stuff should fall. Best scenario i have seen so far @ on 24th+
     
  13. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I would very much like to never have a repeat of this winter thank you very much.

    On Topic: the moisture startting to appear on the BOM interactive maps. Pressure looks dubious on the current run. Early days yet though....[​IMG]
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tonight’s EC looking fairly underwhelming.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dat neutral SAM might just put it to bed yet.
     
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sat. week, May 23rd is looking good to me for a day trip on XC skis.
     
  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z ec were similar to 00z cmc.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A mere ULL is left on EC and GFS this morning.
    EC 12z


    with some hope left in UKMET
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC looks decent too.


    Still all over the shop, so we aren’t quite there yet.
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That high position is perfect
     
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  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z going backwards.... just to make everything more confusing.


    At least EC and CMC are offering up something half-decent:

     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    UKMET 'aint backing down.
    Holding steady and moisture-laden IMO.


    UK Met 850mb Temp:


    UK Met MSL Pressure:
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I’ve got know idea which way this system will go lol none what’s so ever?
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You and GFS.
    GFS has just flipped again. The usual Autumn variability IMO.
    06Z looking very much like UKMET IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I really hope it ends up this scenario
     
  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    #doogasnow

    2 days of intermix snow showers is looking good atm imo.
    Note i'm not a guru.


    .
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Biggest guru. With the biggest treasure chest of model links.
     
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  31. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I'm sure pow already knows. He is very astute. How much cold air inversion down from 200mb into 500mb into 700mb is key for this low's potential when over the lower se. on the date range to surprise with good numbers.




     
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  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks okay with a short and sharp upper level low.

    Delivering about ~5-15cm.


    UKMET looks even more weaker this morning. You really need the low over the Alps, not down in Tasmania.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    12z JMA Thinking.



     
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  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18z OCF precip probs for any.








    OCF 18z max day time temps forecast. max









    18z GFS Upper's temps forecast.






     
    #35 stormkite2000, May 16, 2020
    Last edited: May 16, 2020
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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Icon 18z had a JMA flavor to the run.
     
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  37. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another website (ok, Snowsbest) predicting 32-36 cm for Vic resorts from this next system. Don't know which computer model they use but it's optimistic.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like a 5-10cm system above 1600m IMO.
    Snow down to 1200m (Vic) by Thursday AM IMO.
     
  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z CMC


    For me on this 20cents+ atm depending on locality.

    edited

    Its vcold on the run with some moisture on the humidly 700mb plot.


    .
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking through various Parameters im thinking there may be a more depleted structure to this event- particularly the later half. Hope I am wrong.
     
  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC...Just saying was looking ok to me on the run.











     
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  43. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks like the system is trying to go more back to traditional sw front if I’m reading it right??
    But I’m still really not sure how it will end up?
    Might be waiting until late in the piece to sort this one out imo
     
  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    It is not allowed to snow properly until we are allowed to go away from home for 2 or 3 nights so we can ski tour the VIC. ALPS area properly.
    However Ms. Bunn's modelling for Mt. Baw Baw looks tempting. BB is now open :)
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
     
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  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Even tho there's bugger all interest now (no fresh posts).


    12z's










    All showing a v/cold airmass.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The residual Tasman low is looking quite dynamic by next weekend.
     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    What's your opinion on this very cold air-mass's potential for snow Belly.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 3 hourly Temps @ 850 hPa look reasonable
     
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  50. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    With the current modeling. Cant see it not producing. Not expecting any major changes in models.


    Cold pools as rule of thumb have moisture within the unstable mass. See how it goes when in realtime after it pass's with on ground cam.