Predictions Predictions: 20th-23rd May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 14, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday still looking like the only obvious day to make any sort of snow gain IMO.
    Wednesday arvo cools down but the moisture is done/dusted by then.
    Friday looks like a clearing trend for the Alps IMO.

    So with that we should see 15-25mm rain Wednesday, +5-10cm gain Thursday. Agreed the temps look great for Thursday.

    Swell potential next week and off the back of the Tasman Low is thread-worthy however!
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller in a good possie to do well.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of snot Wednesday, early arvo.
    But come Midnight Thursday, game on.
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z slightly rationalising the cold air.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going to be bitter AF in Wollongong with a chart like Thursday nights
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECL looking a green light on 00z this arvo.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    download (6).png download (2).png Cyclonic ball of polar air
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    snowgum and derwent like this.
  10. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    9-10 cms is not worth the 3 hour drive one way esp. when I am rusty at skiing . Only 9 cm is not much to crash on :-0 at Baw Baw.
    Mt.Stirling looks like slim pickings according Ms. Bunn's modelling.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-stirling
    Even Hot Ham at present looks like more rocks than hopping
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    The surf forecast for Westernport on Friday looks greatly superior!
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mountain watch saying 73cm for Thredbo
    lel
    However I reckon a good chance of snow in strange places thursday night.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is that ECL showing hints of retrograding on the Friday 10:00pm?
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS 00z

     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    At best, snow down to 1000m for Vic Alps, as low as 1100m for NSW by Thursday PM, IMO.
     
  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS thinks a few more cold snaps may come in the lead up to june.

     
  16. walrusballs

    walrusballs Hard Yards

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    sorry what does that mean?
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Gregah suggesting it's track has momentary movement Westwards. Atypical movement.
    The stalled nature of an ECL, makes it a possible outcome for any ECL.
     
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  18. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its possibly the wrong technical term (mug amateur that I am...). What I'm describing is the low moving back right to left (east to west) instead of its normal progression west to east.
     
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  19. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Won't amount to much but it matters not. It's still nice to see six snow symbols in a row in mid May (Hotham)
     
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  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Binary interaction between two lows

     
  21. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    With the cold overnight temps it will interesting to see if the guns get fired up. Perisher has their temporary front valley machines now in place.
     
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  22. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm confused - Thursday midnight, are we talking, midnight wed/thur or Thur/fri?
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wed night, Thurs morning.
    00:00hrs Thursday
     
  24. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    #74 stormkite2000, May 18, 2020
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
  25. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    Maybe 1200M NSW CTs
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can’t see that IMO.
     
  27. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12z shows cold pool further North......
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in strange places
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Really weird indeed.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lines down Canobolas.
    Still not seeing much below 1250m IMO.
    EDIT: for CTs that is.
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bureau wants 1200m, it's a possibility, as is it sticking to a little bit higher IMO. Too mesoscale to guess, but it's likely to be good regardless.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitely trending for snot in strange places.
     
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/alpine.shtml
    Thursday 21 May
    Location Min. Max. Summary
    [​IMG] Mount Baw Baw -1 1 Snow showers.
    [​IMG] Falls Creek -3 0 Snow showers.
    [​IMG] Mount Buller -3 -1 Snow showers.
    [​IMG] Mount Hotham -4 -1 Snow showers.
    Friday 22 May
    Location Min. Max. Summary
    [​IMG] Mount Baw Baw -2 3 Showers or snow.
    [​IMG] Falls Creek -4 2 Possible snow shower.
    [​IMG] Mount Buller -3 2 Possible snow shower.
    [​IMG] Mount Hotham -5 1 Possible snow shower.
    Saturday 23 May
    Location Min. Max. Summary
    [​IMG] Mount Baw Baw 1 3 Showers.
    [​IMG] Falls Creek -1 2 Snow shower or two.
    [​IMG] Mount Buller -1 3 Showers or snow at times.
    [​IMG] Mount Hotham -2 1 Snow shower or two.
    Sunday 24 May
    Location Min. Max. Summary
    [​IMG] Mount Baw Baw 0 3 Showers.
    [​IMG] Falls Creek 0 4 Showers or snow at times.
    [​IMG] Mount Buller 0 4 Possible shower.
    [​IMG] Mount Hotham -1 3 Snow shower or two.
    Monday 25 May
    Location Min. Max. Summary
    [​IMG] Mount Baw Baw 1 4 Shower or two.
    [​IMG] Falls Creek 1 5 Shower or two.
    [​IMG] Mount Buller 1 5 Partly cloudy.
    [​IMG] Mount Hotham 0 4 Showers or snow at times.







    http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/snowy.shtml
    Wednesday 20 May

    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1600 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h turning northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h early in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Thursday 21 May
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow falling above 1100 metres. Small hail is also possible. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    60% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m
    Friday 22 May
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Snow possible above 1100 metres. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    20% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Tuesday.
     
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  34. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Wandering Cool Pools are always hit and miss.

    See what happens. The follow up at 240 hrs may be better.

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Bom above alps forecasts looked likely on the mark. Two plots below for 21 @12z indicating the lowered heights @ the two points same time.






     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  38. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The preliminaries are rolling in over the range, mostly to the north at the moment.
     
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  39. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  40. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I don't know.

    I just cleaned out my gutters... rainfall negative... but
    I also cleaned my car ... rainfall positive

    Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
     
  44. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS modelling.
    anyone here live in The Gong ?? ;)
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    the bigger issue for those of us on or near the water.
    meso scale systems as the ECL is born.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM relegating snow to 1300m on the CTs forecast, as suspected.
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is some convergence around Nowra that could be of a concern but the rest of it looks confined to offshore.
    That convergence area looks to kick off around 10pm Thursday once that upper level cold pool intersects with the coast IMO.
     
  48. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM has been modelling offshore.
    EC closer to the coast.
    Watching with interest.
     
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  49. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have been a little undecided on this the last few days.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kind of a given, with ECL type systems.
     
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