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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by tr+h, Jun 15, 2010.
good pre-frontal cold air at this stage, IMO. Thoughts ?
I see action between the dates of 25-30, but the charts needs to sort themselves out first.
This looks better on this mornings run IMO.
I like this.
Looks good for snowmaking, not sure there will be much snow in this. IMO
This could be quite good if the front and cold air hit the resorts at the same time
Sorry to be an idiot... Where are you guys getting your charts?
Could look at the charts on this site, i.e. http://ski.com.au/weather/index.html
Weatherzone have GFS, GASP & MLAPS charts, and for a few dollars also get EC.
Or get EC (deterministic) here:
and EC Ensemble
Starting to look good but again showing fronts hitting the mainland a bit too far west IMO which I don't like.
Will be watching with interest.
Hopefully that high will push it along on this mornings run. LWT looks reasonable for this time period too, it's starting to line up IMO.
Yep was just about to post the same thing. There is certainly some positive signs for 24 to 27 IMO. Hopefully as we get closer to the date things will line up further.
I'm liking the COLA charts from the 24th, but the MSLP seems to be too high this far out (+150hours) to actually bring us much, if any, snow. Personally, I'm expecting this to be another rain mass tailing off to snow, similar to what we've just gone through.
I have fingers crossed and am hopeful of a net gain as far north as Thredders/Perisher (and Selwyn).
No rain in this one mate
Its coming from deep south and wrapping.
I agree no rain, but how much snow is the question. 10-15cm max IMO
why do you say that?...
I'll put my five cents.
Both EC and GFS are toying with the idea of a elongated high, cutoff low and NW feed.
Thats pretty cool IMO.
This little baby has a good bubble following it like the pied piper.
All those false starts over May and into the start of June have left me feeling pretty jaded towards any prognostications of snow this (150+) hours out from an event. I'm concerned that HPL is going to track north and swat the front south.
I don't know how confident I am that we've sufficiently shifted into cold weather patterns... Actually, yeah, I do. I'm not confident.
My general tendency towards an optimistic outlook has taken a beating this past six weeks. It's only the snowfalls of the past 24+ hours (and what is yet expected) that has gone some way towards reversing the trend.
The trailing high looks great, the leading over NZ not so. If that can straighten itself up and move along we may have a very nice system IMO. I'm not thinking cut-off but definitley a good period of SW'ly to follow. Of course, its nice to dream.
latest update has the system being pushed further south and then smashing NZ. COME BACK TO AUSTRLALIA GOD DAMMIT!!!
Whadda taling bout willis?
The past six weeks would be including autumn. The start of winter should be the solstice which is next week. The coldest month is July so anything over the last 6 weeks are likely to go either way.
A week out is hard to pick for anyone, even those that are paid to do it and just looking at the charts at this point I think that it is pretty positive IMO.
EC sort of looks ok IMO. I want to see what the EC ensemble (yet to come for this afternoon) says about temperatures.
Thats what WZ use for their syps aye?
seems to be...
No idea what WZ use. EC Ensemble seems to be something new that ECMWF have provided since May (?); two charts are provided; the forecast and the estimate of certainty (defined by standard deviation). The model uses 51 forecasts all started at the same time based on the same model.
I've been looking at it only recently. last couple of days. So its hardly a fair representation.
I try to match up all the models and syps and work out some sort of pattern.
chuck in a healthy bit of the vibe.
This looks good at the moment. EC doesn't do cutoff lows very often..when it does...
Donza compared to this mornings update on the extended gfs forecast it shows the high pressure pushing the system further south and then over NZ IMO. It is still showing snow, but I would like to see it penetrate the mainland further.
I think that this far out you just want to see a resemblance of a system. The 24th & 25th looks about as good as this current system and the last one so the rest is guess work.
GFS does this a majority of the time I reckon.
It doesnt seem a particularly strong system at this point.
Update: Further investigation....
Series of fronts though and the high preceding is in a good position.
on the latest gfs run the system seems to have dug in a little with plenty of moisture were it counts.
if only the system was to hit tommoz!!! if it can hold on to how it looks at the moment
were in business.
hopefully this is the real kick starter for the season.
IMO, EC also is on board with this system. Looks plenty cold enough at this stage.
Looks like coming through on the 25th.
There is such a contrast between 25th on the 7 day forecast and then the 26th on the 14 day forecast. 25th looks good IMO with the system pushing through, 26th has the majority of the system pushing south.
Which EC chart are you looking at?
Weatherzone EC has this system peaking too early and then sliding south IMO.
I am still not convinced.
are you sure you're looking at the 25/26th smitty and not the 19th?
IMO this system can't slide.
Way too big a cold air mass.
previous runs have had the classic SW sytem with a sub 996 low centred on Tassie...that's less on the cards now...
Has it peaking over WA on 23/24
The official ones on the ECMWF site.
and 850mb temps
EC Ensemble is still cautious about this - deterministic certainly looks cold enough.
NOGAPS has this system hitting late Friday/Early Saturday of Next Week, plenty of moisture and cold enough
at NOGAPS I remember when i stopped looking at that model.
I like this sytem, it looks good at this stage.
GFS run this afternoon is perhaps a little bit of a downgrade IMO
EC relatively unchanged, but it's hard to gauge the strength of the system.
However EC suggests possibly stronger system coming through on the 29/30th as a follow - hope it doesn't slide south. IMO
You reckon GFS is a downgrade?
If anything it strengthens the low...well it strengthens the gradient.
GFS ridging the high doesn't seem logical
The cold air (according to GFS) is certainly further south on the 26th, IMO. It might just mean the 27th is stronger (I can't get to my usual extended GFS to check it out - seems to be stuck on the previous run).
I still think the period is interesting, as EC suggesting two systems in the space of 4 days.
Yeah but CC but look at the development and shape of the high at
120, 144 and 168...does that look logical..?
I swear the models geometrically project outcomes past 120 hours..
GFS is onto something, it just doesn't know what..
First front looks to be peaking over WA on the 23/24 IMO.
That's why I prefer EC, and just use GFS to confirm the pattern. In this case EC is showing a system on the 26th, GFS agrees although it doesn't really make a whole of sense right now..
Yeah but beyond the models and at say 120 hours..
what do you think will happen? how will it progress?
using the fact you've stared at 100's of weather charts over the years, using their precedent.
I'd like watch the charts for a couple more days before I put it on the line, but to me it looks like a weaker system 26th (ish) followed by a stronger one immediately after. IMO
Right now I tend to believe EC for the more extended outlook (ensemble will determine how likely that scenario is later tomorrow).
More guesswork right about now than science.
I agree we need to wait and see IMO the 26th looks weakish with mostly pre-frontal precipitation at this stage followed by a stronger front behind pushing in the colder air, doesn't look like there's a lot in it yet but I'm sure this will improve slightly in the coming days.
My biggest worry is that high being so strong (up to 1041hpa on Tuesday) stalling it up and making it slip in a South Easterly direction whilst maintaining warmish North Westerly winds over us.
One could say that about any system.
Not convinced on this one.
The ferry land scenario for 2nd onwards however Antarctoria
Highs progged to be well south of WA.
GFS has the system falling south on the 27th and then a better system returns on the 29th bringing moisture and cold temps. It is early days but I'm confident on this one. I'm calling 20cm - 30cm already because the GFS hasn't downgraded so much compared to previous systems. Fingers crossed.