1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Apr├Ęs topics or continue browsing and reading as a guest.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions: 24th - 30th June

Discussion in 'Weather' started by tr+h, Jun 15, 2010.

  1. tr+h

    tr+h One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2008
    Messages:
    2,456
    Likes Received:
    376
    good pre-frontal cold air at this stage, IMO. Thoughts ?

     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    Based on....?
     
    #2 Stratus, Jun 15, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    I see action between the dates of 25-30, but the charts needs to sort themselves out first.
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    This looks better on this mornings run IMO.
     
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    I like this.
     
  6. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    10
    Looks good for snowmaking, not sure there will be much snow in this. IMO
     
  7. Sweens

    Sweens First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    Messages:
    195
    Likes Received:
    0
    This could be quite good if the front and cold air hit the resorts at the same time
     
  8. Winged

    Winged First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2010
    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    1
    Sorry to be an idiot... Where are you guys getting your charts?
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    #9 Claude Cat, Jun 17, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  10. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    956
    Likes Received:
    122
    Starting to look good but again showing fronts hitting the mainland a bit too far west IMO which I don't like.
    Will be watching with interest.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    Hopefully that high will push it along on this mornings run. LWT looks reasonable for this time period too, it's starting to line up IMO.
     
  12. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Yep was just about to post the same thing. There is certainly some positive signs for 24 to 27 IMO. Hopefully as we get closer to the date things will line up further.
     
  13. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    0
    I'm liking the COLA charts from the 24th, but the MSLP seems to be too high this far out (+150hours) to actually bring us much, if any, snow. Personally, I'm expecting this to be another rain mass tailing off to snow, similar to what we've just gone through.

    I have fingers crossed and am hopeful of a net gain as far north as Thredders/Perisher (and Selwyn).
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    No rain in this one mate
    Its coming from deep south and wrapping.
     
    #14 Donza, Jun 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2010
    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    10
    I agree no rain, but how much snow is the question. 10-15cm max IMO
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    why do you say that?...
     
    #16 Donza, Jun 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    I'll put my five cents.
    [​IMG]



    Both EC and GFS are toying with the idea of a elongated high, cutoff low and NW feed.
    Thats pretty cool IMO.
    This little baby has a good bubble following it like the pied piper.
     
    #17 Donza, Jun 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Sinyk

    Sinyk First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    0
    All those false starts over May and into the start of June have left me feeling pretty jaded towards any prognostications of snow this (150+) hours out from an event. I'm concerned that HPL is going to track north and swat the front south.

    I don't know how confident I am that we've sufficiently shifted into cold weather patterns... Actually, yeah, I do. I'm not confident.

    My general tendency towards an optimistic outlook has taken a beating this past six weeks. It's only the snowfalls of the past 24+ hours (and what is yet expected) that has gone some way towards reversing the trend.
     
  19. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,093
    Likes Received:
    278
    The trailing high looks great, the leading over NZ not so. If that can straighten itself up and move along we may have a very nice system IMO. I'm not thinking cut-off but definitley a good period of SW'ly to follow. Of course, its nice to dream.
     
  20. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    latest update has the system being pushed further south and then smashing NZ. COME BACK TO AUSTRLALIA GOD DAMMIT!!!
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Whadda taling bout willis?
    [​IMG]
     
    #21 Donza, Jun 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    956
    Likes Received:
    122
    The past six weeks would be including autumn. The start of winter should be the solstice which is next week. The coldest month is July so anything over the last 6 weeks are likely to go either way. [​IMG]

    A week out is hard to pick for anyone, even those that are paid to do it and just looking at the charts at this point I think that it is pretty positive IMO.
     
    #22 Outlooker, Jun 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    EC sort of looks ok IMO. I want to see what the EC ensemble (yet to come for this afternoon) says about temperatures.
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Thats what WZ use for their syps aye?
    seems to be...
     
    #24 Donza, Jun 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    Off topic:
    No idea what WZ use. EC Ensemble seems to be something new that ECMWF have provided since May (?); two charts are provided; the forecast and the estimate of certainty (defined by standard deviation). The model uses 51 forecasts all started at the same time based on the same model.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Off topic:
    I've been looking at it only recently. last couple of days. So its hardly a fair representation.
    I try to match up all the models and syps and work out some sort of pattern.
    chuck in a healthy bit of the vibe.
    This looks good at the moment. EC doesn't do cutoff lows very often..when it does...
     
  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Donza compared to this mornings update on the extended gfs forecast it shows the high pressure pushing the system further south and then over NZ IMO. It is still showing snow, but I would like to see it penetrate the mainland further.
     
  28. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    956
    Likes Received:
    122
    I think that this far out you just want to see a resemblance of a system. The 24th & 25th looks about as good as this current system and the last one so the rest is guess work.
     
  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,050
    Likes Received:
    9,383
    GFS does this a majority of the time I reckon.
    It doesnt seem a particularly strong system at this point.
    Update: Further investigation....
    Series of fronts though and the high preceding is in a good position.
     
    #29 The Plowking, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  30. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    812
    Likes Received:
    315
    on the latest gfs run the system seems to have dug in a little with plenty of moisture were it counts.
    if only the system was to hit tommoz!!! if it can hold on to how it looks at the moment
    were in business. [​IMG]
    hopefully this is the real kick starter for the season.
     
    #30 doogasnow, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    IMO, EC also is on board with this system. Looks plenty cold enough at this stage.
    Looks like coming through on the 25th.
     
  32. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    There is such a contrast between 25th on the 7 day forecast and then the 26th on the 14 day forecast. 25th looks good IMO with the system pushing through, 26th has the majority of the system pushing south.
     
  33. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Which EC chart are you looking at?

    Weatherzone EC has this system peaking too early and then sliding south IMO.

    I am still not convinced.
     
    #33 smitty484, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  34. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,897
    Likes Received:
    8,516
    are you sure you're looking at the 25/26th smitty and not the 19th?
    IMO this system can't slide.
    Way too big a cold air mass.
    previous runs have had the classic SW sytem with a sub 996 low centred on Tassie...that's less on the cards now...
     
    #34 MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  35. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    #35 smitty484, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    The official ones on the ECMWF site.
    [​IMG]
    and 850mb temps
    [​IMG]
    EC Ensemble is still cautious about this - deterministic certainly looks cold enough.
     
    #36 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  37. ben4386

    ben4386 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2007
    Messages:
    278
    Likes Received:
    0
    NOGAPS has this system hitting late Friday/Early Saturday of Next Week, plenty of moisture and cold enough
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,312
    Likes Received:
    24,321
    [​IMG] at NOGAPS I remember when i stopped looking at that model.

    I like this sytem, it looks good at this stage.
     
    #38 Vermillion, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    GFS run this afternoon is perhaps a little bit of a downgrade IMO
    EC relatively unchanged, but it's hard to gauge the strength of the system.
    However EC suggests possibly stronger system coming through on the 29/30th as a follow - hope it doesn't slide south. IMO
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    You reckon GFS is a downgrade?
    If anything it strengthens the low...well it strengthens the gradient.
    GFS ridging the high doesn't seem logical
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    The cold air (according to GFS) is certainly further south on the 26th, IMO. It might just mean the 27th is stronger (I can't get to my usual extended GFS to check it out - seems to be stuck on the previous run).
    I still think the period is interesting, as EC suggesting two systems in the space of 4 days.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Yeah but CC but look at the development and shape of the high at
    120, 144 and 168...does that look logical..?
    I swear the models geometrically project outcomes past 120 hours..
    GFS is onto something, it just doesn't know what..
    hmmmm
     
  43. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    First front looks to be peaking over WA on the 23/24 IMO.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    That's why I prefer EC, and just use GFS to confirm the pattern. In this case EC is showing a system on the 26th, GFS agrees although it doesn't really make a whole of sense right now..
     
    #44 Claude Cat, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,608
    Yeah but beyond the models and at say 120 hours..
    what do you think will happen? how will it progress?
    using the fact you've stared at 100's of weather charts over the years, using their precedent.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,287
    Likes Received:
    47,071
    I'd like watch the charts for a couple more days before I put it on the line, but to me it looks like a weaker system 26th (ish) followed by a stronger one immediately after. IMO
    Right now I tend to believe EC for the more extended outlook (ensemble will determine how likely that scenario is later tomorrow).
    More guesswork right about now than science.
     
  47. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2003
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    42
    I agree we need to wait and see IMO the 26th looks weakish with mostly pre-frontal precipitation at this stage followed by a stronger front behind pushing in the colder air, doesn't look like there's a lot in it yet but I'm sure this will improve slightly in the coming days.
     
    #47 Matt.D, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2003
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    42
    My biggest worry is that high being so strong (up to 1041hpa on Tuesday) stalling it up and making it slip in a South Easterly direction whilst maintaining warmish North Westerly winds over us.
     
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,050
    Likes Received:
    9,383
    One could say that about any system. [​IMG]
    Not convinced on this one.
    The ferry land scenario for 2nd onwards however [​IMG] Antarctoria
    Highs progged to be well south of WA.
    mmmm
     
    #49 The Plowking, Jun 19, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  50. Fungry

    Fungry First Runs

    Joined:
    May 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18
    Likes Received:
    0
    GFS has the system falling south on the 27th and then a better system returns on the 29th bringing moisture and cold temps. It is early days but I'm confident on this one. I'm calling 20cm - 30cm already because the GFS hasn't downgraded so much compared to previous systems. Fingers crossed.